Economic Report of the President

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Council Members and their dates of service are listed below:NamePositionOath of office dateSeparation dateEdwin 6. NourseLeon H. KeyserlingJohn D. ClarkRoy BloughRobert C TurnerArthur F. BurnsNeilH. JacobyWalter W. StewartRaymond J. SaulnierJoseph S. DavisPaul W McCrackenKarl BrandtHenry C. WallichWalter W. HellerJames TobinKermit GordonGardner AckleyJohn P. LewisOtto EcksteinArthur M OkunJames S. DuesenberryMerton J. PeckWarren L SmithPaul W. McCrackenHendrikS. HouthakkerHerbert SteinEzra SolomonMarina v.N. WhitmanGary L SeeversWilliam J FellnerAlan GreenspanPaul W. MacAvoyBurton G MalkielCharles L. SchultzeWilliam D. NordhausLyle E GramleyGeorge C. EadsStephen M. GoldfeldMurray L WeidenbaumJerry L. JordanWilliam A. NiskanenMartin FeldsteinWilliam PooleChairmanVice ChairmanActing ChairmanChairmanMemberVice ChairmanMemberMemberChairmanMemberMemberMemberChairmanMemberMember .MemberMemberChairmanMemberMemberMemberChairmanMemberMemberMemberChairmanMemberMemberMemberChairmanMemberMemberChairmanMemberMemberMemberMemberChairmanMemberMember . .ChairmanMemberMemberMemberMemberChairmanMemberMemberChairmanMemberAugust 9,1946August 9, 1946November 2. 1949May 10, 1950August 9. 1946May 10,1950June 29, 1950September8, 1952March 19, 1953September 15,1953December 2,1953April 4, 1955December 3,1956May 2,1955December 3,1956November 1, 1958May 7, 1959January 29, 1961January 29, 1961January 29, 1961August 3, 1962November 16, 1964May 17, 1963September 2, 1964November 16, 1964February 15, 1968February 2,1966February 15, 1968July 1, 1968February 4,1969February 4,1969February 4, 1969January 1,1972September 9, 1971March 13,1972July 23, 1973October 31, 1973September 4, 1974June 13, 1975July 22, 1975January 22, 1977March 18, 1977March 18,1977June 6, 1979August 20, 1980February 27, 1981July 14,1981June 12, 1981October 14, 1982December 10, 1982November 1, 1949.January 20, 1953.February 11,1953.August 20, 1952.January 20,1953.December 1,1956.February 9, 1955.April 29, 1955.January 20,1961.October 31, 1958.January 31,1959.January 20,1961.January 20,1961.November 15, 1964.July 31, 1962.December 27,1962.February 15, 1968.August 31, 1964.February 1,1966.January 20. 1969.June 30, 1968.January 20, 1969.January 20, 1969.December 31, 1971.July 15, 1971.August 31, 1974.March 26,1973.August 15, 1973.April 15, 1975.February 25,1975.January 20,1977.November 15,1976.January 20, 1977.January 20, 1981.February 4, 1979.May 27, 1980.January 20,1981.January 20,1981.August 25, 1982.July 31, 1982.150
Report to the President on the Activities of theCouncil of Economic Advisers during 1982The Employment Act of 1946 (P.L. 304-79th Congress), as amended,provides the statutory base for the activities of the Council ofEconomic Advisers. The Council, through the Chairman, providesadvice to the President on a wide range of domestic and internationaleconomic policy issues.Martin Feldstein became Chairman on October 14, 1982, succeedingMurray L. Weidenbaum, who returned to Washington University(St. Louis). The Chairman is on leave from Harvard University,where he is a Professor of Economics. On July 31, 1982, Jerry L.Jordan resigned to return to the University of New Mexico, where heis a Professor of Economics at the Anderson Schools of Management.On December 10, 1982, William Poole became a Member of theCouncil. Mr. Poole is on leave from Brown University where he is aProfessor of Economics. William A. Niskanen continued to serve as aMember.MACROECONOMIC POLICIESAs is its tradition, during 1982 the Council devoted much of itstime to assisting the President in the formulation of broad economicpolicy objectives and the programs to carry them out. The developmentof economic assumptions and monitoring of current developments,under Council Member Jordan and subsequently CouncilMember Poole, were an area of major interest. Monetary policy developmentsreceived especially close attention.Council Member Jordan and later Council Member Poole chairedthe interagency subcabinet "Troika" forecasting group, consisting ofrepresentatives from the Department of the Treasury and the Officeof Management and Budget, with participation by the Department ofCommerce. The Chairman of the Council continued his responsibilityfor presenting to the President the economic assumptions developedwith the Office of Management and Budget and the Departmentof the Treasury.Council Members chaired or participated in numerous CabinetCouncil working groups dealing with such issues as economic statistics,Federal credit programs, alternatives to Federal regulation, andFederal housing programs.151
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CONTENTSPageECONOMIC REPORT OF THE
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
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Monetary policy will play a critica
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Interest Rates and the U.S. Trade D
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THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
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CONTENTSPageCHAPTER 1. FROM RECESSI
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PageConclusions 122CHAPTER 6. REVIE
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CHAPTER 1From Recession to Recovery
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slowed somewhat in the 1970s regard
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nal GNP growth is reflected in a sl
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inflation. More specifically, the A
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inflation rate, or with a 12 percen
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1988, an increase of about one-four
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CHAPTER 2The Dual Problems of Struc
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frequently associated with poor hea
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Chart 2-2Distribution of Unemployme
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Chart 2-4Distribution of Unemployme
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These findings suggest several conc
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Wage RigidityA number of studies sh
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that these measures may have caused
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Most young people find jobs or leav
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to employers who hire youths. Tax c
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defined broadly to include individu
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ship between incomplete experience
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CHAPTER 3The United States in the W
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with 2.6 percent in the other Organ
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TABLE 3-1 .—Structure ofthe U.S.
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TABLE 3-2.—Trade balances by comm
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concentrate on doing what it does r
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the United States will depress pric
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Chart 3-3Real Exchange Rates Of Maj
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AN UNDERVALUED YEN?The explanations
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arily reduced the international com
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nancial markets. These transactions
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TABLE 3-6.—Economic performance b
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were undoubtedly a highly favorable
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of lenders that some debtors will n
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CHAPTER 4Increasing Capital Formati
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ate of net investment was required,
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able share in Japan and 56 percent
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During the 1970s, productivity grow
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MEASURING NATIONAL SAVINGDomestic s
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TAX RULES AND PERSONAL SAVINGMany e
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on consumption taxation might also
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Nevertheless, a number of economic
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tion permitted businesses to deprec
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A final problem under current tax l
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fleeted efforts to deal with proble
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Page 109 and 110: system resulted. Price controls, wh
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Page 113 and 114: Price and allocation controls only
Page 115 and 116: nications industries through the re
Page 117 and 118: Several major pieces of legislation
Page 119 and 120: tempt to set cartel rates would be
Page 121 and 122: computer information and advertisin
Page 123 and 124: of computer technology to the payme
Page 125 and 126: trend by widening the sources and u
Page 127 and 128: changes. That is, members can arbit
Page 129 and 130: ceived to be a consequence of exces
Page 131 and 132: lowest point in the post-World War
Page 133 and 134: ing. Partly in response to the drop
Page 135 and 136: Chart 6-3Ratio of Consumer Installm
Page 137 and 138: Chart 6-4RATIO1.85Real Inventory/Sa
Page 139 and 140: percent increase in real defense pu
Page 141 and 142: 8.8 percent in 1981. These declines
Page 143 and 144: housing. Borrowing by the nonfinanc
Page 145 and 146: orous competitor for credit as usur
Page 147 and 148: 1982 their share had risen to over
Page 149 and 150: TABLE 6-9.—Economic outlook for 1
Page 151: A critical element in achieving hea
Page 155: LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
Page 159 and 160: ety of interagency and internationa
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Page 165 and 166: CONTENTSNATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDIT
Page 167 and 168: B-70. Mortgage debt outstanding by
Page 169 and 170: NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
Page 171 and 172: TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
Page 173 and 174: 19291933193919401941194219431944194
Page 175 and 176: TABLE B-5.—Changes in GNP and GNP
Page 181 and 182: TABLE B-ll.—Gross national produc
Page 183 and 184: TABLE B-13.—Output, costs, and pr
Page 185 and 186: TABLE B-14.—Personal consumption
Page 187 and 188: TABLE B-16.—Gross and net private
Page 189 and 190: TABLE B-18.—Inventories and final
Page 191 and 192: TABLE B-20.—Relation of national
Page 193 and 194: TABLE B-21.—National income by ty
Page 195 and 196: TABLE B-22.—Sources of personal i
Page 197 and 198: TABLE B-24.—Total and per capita
Page 199 and 200: Year or quarterTotalTotalTABLE B-26
Page 201 and 202: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
Page 203 and 204: TABLE B-29.—Noninstitutional popu
Page 205 and 206: TABLE B-31.—Selected employment a
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TABLE B-33.—Civilian unemployment
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TABLE B-35.—Unemployment by reaso
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TABLE B-37.— Wage and salary work
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TABLE B-39.—Average weekly earnin
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TABLE B-41.—Changes in productivi
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TABLE B-43-—Industrial production
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TABLE B-45.—Capacity utilization
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TABLE B-46.—New construction acti
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TABLE B-48.—Nonfarm business expe
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TABLE B-50.—Manufacturers' shipme
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Year or monthAllitemsPRICESTABLE B-
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TABLE B-53.—Consumer price indexe
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TABLE B-55.—Changes in consumer p
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TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexe
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MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AND FINANCETAB
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TABLE B-63.—Commercial bank loans
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TABLE B-64.—Total funds raised in
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TABLE B-66.—Aggregate reserves of
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TABLE B-67 .—Bond yields and inte
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TABLE B-69.—Consumer installment
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TABLE B-71-—Mortgage debt outstan
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TABLE B-72.—Federal budget receip
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TABLE B-74.—Relation of Federal G
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TABLE B-76.—Federal Government re
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TABLE B-78.—State and local gover
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TABLE B-80.—Estimated ownership o
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CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCETABLE
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Year or quarterTABLE B-84.—Corpor
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TABLE B-86.—Relation of profits a
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TABLE B-88.—Determinants of busin
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TABLE B-9Q.~Current assets and liab
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TABLE B-92.—Common stock prices a
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AGRICULTURETABLE B-94.—Farm incom
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TABLE B-96.—Farm input use, selec
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TABLE B-98.—U.S. exports and impo
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INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-100
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TABLE B-101.—U.S. international t
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TABLE B-103.—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-105.—International invest
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TABLE B-107.— World trade balance
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TABLE B-109.—Growth rates in real
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TABLE B-lll.—Unemployment rate, a
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