Economic Report of the President

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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS,Washington, D.C., January 31, 1983.MR. PRESIDENT:The Council of Economic Advisers herewith submits its 1983Annual Report in accordance with the provisions of the EmploymentAct of 1946 as amended by the Full Employment and BalancedGrowth Act of 1978.Sincerely,N\ CutterMartin FeldsteinCHAIRMANWilliam A. Niskanen11
Page 5: CONTENTSPageECONOMIC REPORT OF THE
Page 9 and 10: ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
Page 11 and 12: Monetary policy will play a critica
Page 13 and 14: Interest Rates and the U.S. Trade D
Page 15: THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
Page 20 and 21: PageThe Problem of Uncompetitive Se
Page 22 and 23: List of Tables and Charts—Continu
Page 24 and 25: was in large part the price the Uni
Page 26 and 27: Over short periods of time a variet
Page 28 and 29: precisely, an increase in the deman
Page 30 and 31: sistent with the basic principle of
Page 32 and 33: ing an appropriate long-run path fo
Page 34 and 35: machinery and equipment industries,
Page 36 and 37: and it is possible that the unemplo
Page 38 and 39: Chart 2-1Distribution of Unemployme
Page 44 and 45: tion as measured by percentage chan
Page 46 and 47: after an economic recovery has begu
Page 48 and 49: insurance system, which, while prov
Page 50 and 51: disproportionately among youths wit
Page 52 and 53: Structural Change and Economic Adju
Page 54 and 55: Incentives to Prolong UnemploymentP
Page 56 and 57: creases in cyclical unemployment. P
Page 58 and 59: widespread misconceptions about the
Page 60 and 61: and annual investment by foreigners
Page 62 and 63: THE ISSUE OF U.S. TRADE WITH JAPANT
Page 64 and 65: ers. As the fastest growing and sec
Page 66 and 67:
2. High technology: In recent years
Page 68 and 69:
analysis can narrow the range of pl
Page 70 and 71:
Chart 3-4International Real Short-T
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TABLE S-5.—Real appreciation of t
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kinds of policies might be used: mi
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duction in deficits would lead—wi
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from disinflationary policies. The
Page 80 and 81:
percent from the first half of 1981
Page 82 and 83:
educe U.S. GNP by one-half percenta
Page 84 and 85:
investment may prove disappointing
Page 86 and 87:
Chart 4-1Measures of Capital Format
Page 88 and 89:
Chart 4-2PERCENT OF GDPInternationa
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sophisticated capital goods occurs
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vate, Federal, and State and local
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The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 19
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Chart 4-3Three-Month Treasury Bill
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services to investors in owner-occu
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capital income, such as corporate r
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CHAPTER 5The Burden of Economic Reg
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effect of raising prices. A later g
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pricing—setting prices below cost
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taining to these industries should
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first in many cases, and generally
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tificial constraints imposed by pri
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cation controls during a disruption
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73 percent from 1976 to 1981, airli
Page 118 and 119:
FURTHER DEREGULATION OF SURFACE TRA
Page 120 and 121:
cated that less than half of the ex
Page 122 and 123:
industries. Substantial and numerou
Page 124 and 125:
this problem by authorizing, effect
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ates fully negotiable by May 1976.
Page 128 and 129:
Portfolio Restrictions in BankingTh
Page 130 and 131:
CHAPTER 6Review of 1982 and theEcon
Page 132 and 133:
Chart 6-2Index of Leading Indicator
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TABLE 6-2.—Real household income,
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its 1981 peak to the last quarter o
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Lower crop prices, high mortgage ra
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in this age group. Women workers no
Page 142 and 143:
GNP price measures:Fixed-weighted i
Page 144 and 145:
It then moved to relatively high le
Page 146 and 147:
maintaining its alignment with shor
Page 148 and 149:
had attracted an astonishing $87 bi
Page 150 and 151:
The Full Employment and Balanced Gr
Page 153:
Appendix AREPORT TO THE PRESIDENT O
Page 156 and 157:
Council Members and their dates of
Page 158 and 159:
The Chairman actively participated
Page 160 and 161:
Junior Staff EconomistsChristopher
Page 163:
Appendix BSTATISTICAL TABLES RELATI
Page 166 and 167:
B-S3. Civilian unemployment rate by
Page 168 and 169:
B-102. U.S. merchandise exports and
Page 170 and 171:
TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
Page 172 and 173:
TABLE B-3.—Implicit price deflato
Page 174 and 175:
TABLE B-4.—Fixed-weighted price i
Page 176 and 177:
Page 178 and 179:
Page 180 and 181:
TABLE B-10.—Gross national produc
Page 182 and 183:
TABLE B-12.—Gross domestic produc
Page 184 and 185:
TABLE B-14.—Personal consumption
Page 186 and 187:
TABLE B-15.—Gross private domesti
Page 188 and 189:
TABLE B-17.—Inventories and final
Page 190 and 191:
TABLE B-19.—Relation of gross nat
Page 192 and 193:
TABLE B-21.—National income by ty
Page 194 and 195:
TABLE B-22.~$ourees of personal inc
Page 196 and 197:
TABLE B-23.—Disposition of person
Page 198 and 199:
TABLE B-25.—Gross saving and inve
Page 200 and 201:
TABLE B-27.—Number and median inc
Page 202 and 203:
TABLE B-29-—Noninstitutional popu
Page 204 and 205:
TABLE B-30.—Civilian employment a
Page 206 and 207:
TABLE B-32.—Civilian labor force
Page 208 and 209:
TABLE B-34.—Unemployment by durat
Page 210 and 211:
TABLB B-36.—Unemployment insuranc
Page 212 and 213:
TABLE B-38.—Average weekly hours
Page 214 and 215:
TABLE B-40.—Productivity and rela
Page 216 and 217:
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYTAB
Page 218 and 219:
TABLE B-44.—Industrial production
Page 220 and 221:
TABLE B-46.—Neiv construction act
Page 222 and 223:
TABLE B-47.—New bousing units sta
Page 224 and 225:
TABLE B-49.—Sales and inventories
Page 226 and 227:
TABLE B-51.—Manufacturers' new an
Page 228 and 229:
TABLE B-53.—Consumer price indexe
Page 230 and 231:
TABLE B-54.—Consumer price indexe
Page 232 and 233:
19581959196019611962196319641965196
Page 234 and 235:
TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexe
Page 236 and 237:
TABLE B-59.—Producer price indexe
Page 238 and 239:
Year or month1950195119521953195419
Page 240 and 241:
TABLE B-62,—Components of money s
Page 242 and 243:
TABLE B-64,—Total funds raised in
Page 244 and 245:
TABLE B-65.—Federal Reserve Bank
Page 246 and 247:
TABLE B-67.—Bond yields and inter
Page 248 and 249:
TABLE B-68.—Consumer credit outst
Page 250 and 251:
TABLE B-70.—Mortgage debt outstan
Page 252 and 253:
GOVERNMENT FINANCETABLE B-72.—Fed
Page 254 and 255:
TABLE B-73.—Federal budget receip
Page 256 and 257:
TABLE B-75.—Government receipts a
Page 258 and 259:
TABLE B-77.—State and local gover
Page 260 and 261:
TABLE B-79.—Interest-bearing publ
Page 262 and 263:
TABLE B-81.—Maturity distribution
Page 264 and 265:
TABLE B-83.—Corporate profits by
Page 266 and 267:
TABLE B-85.—Sates, profits, and s
Page 268 and 269:
TABLE B-87.—Relation of profits a
Page 270 and 271:
TABLE B-89.—Sources and uses of f
Page 272 and 273:
TABLE B-91.—State and municipal a
Page 274 and 275:
TABLE B-93.—Business formation an
Page 276 and 277:
TABLE B-95.—Farm output and produ
Page 278 and 279:
Year or month1940194119421943194419
Page 280 and 281:
TABLE B-99.—Balance sheet of the
Page 282 and 283:
TABLE B-101.—£7.5. international
Page 284 and 285:
TABLE B-102,—U.S. merchandise exp
Page 286 and 287:
TABLE B-104.—U.S. merchandise exp
Page 288 and 289:
TABLE B-106.— World trade: Export
Page 290 and 291:
TABLE B-108.—International reserv
Page 292 and 293:
TABLE B-110.—Industrial productio
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