Economic Report of the President

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TABLE B-54.—Consumer price indexes, commodities, services, and special groups, 1939-82[1967-100]CommoditiesServicesSpecial indexesYear ormonthAllitemsFoodCommodities less foodAllDurableAllservicesRentAllcommoditiesNondurableServiceslessrentAllitemslessfoodAllitemslessenergyAllitemslessfoodandenergyEnergy1193919401941194219431944194519461947194819491950195119521953195419551956195719581959I96019611962196319641965 ....1966196719681969 „19701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821981:JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNov .Dec1982:JanFebMarJuneJulyAugSeptOct.NovD€C41.642044.148851.852 753.958 566.972171.472177.879 580180580 281.484 386.687.388.789.690.691.792.994.597.2100 0104.2109.8116.3121.3125.3133.1147.7161.2170 5181.5195.4217.4246.8272.4289.12605283.2265.1266.8269.0271.3274.4276.5279.3279 9280.7281.5282.528342831284.3287.1290.6292,2292.8293.3294.1293.6292.440.240 643.349.654.054.756.362 475.080478.378885.987 086.785985.185.988.690.690.791.592.092.893.694.695.798.2100.0103.7108.4113.5117.4120.9129.9145.5158.4165.2174.7187.1208.4233.9253.6263.8245.4248.3249.8250.8251.9253.2255.0256.2257.7257.9258.0258.4258.8259.5258.8258.9261.5265.1266.5266.4266.6267.5267.8267.734.635238.445150.349650.758170.676 673.574 582.884 383.082881.682.284.988.587.188.089.189.991.292.494.499.1100.0103.6108.9114.9118.4123.5141.4161.7175.41808192.2211.4234.5254.6274.6285.7268.6270.8272.2272.9272.5273.6276.2277.4278,0277 6277.1277.8281.0283 3283 0283.9285.5287.8288.5287.4287.6287.0286.4286.547.748 050.456.058.461.664.168476.882.781.581.487.588 388.587 586.987.890.591.592.793.193.494.194.895.696.297.5100.0103.7108.1112.5116.8119.4123.5136.6149.11566165.1174.7195.1222.0241.2250.9232.4238.0239.6241.1242.6243.8245.5245.9246.2246.5245.9246 0245.2245.0247.8251,9253.5253.8253.9255.4256.0255.848.548151.458460.365 970.974180.386,287.488495.196495.793 391.591.594 495.997.396.796.697.697.998.898.498.5100 0103.1107.0111.8116.5118.9121.9130.6145.5154 3163.2173.9191.1210.4227.1241.12210220.3219.8221.1223.9226.6229.6230.9232.6232 9233.2233.7233.4233 72335235.8239.8243.2244.7244.6244.1246.0246.6247.344.344 746.751653.856 658.662972.277 876.376282.082483.183 583 585.387688.289.390791.291.892.793.594.897.01000104.1108.8113.1117.0119.8124.8140.9151.7158 3166.5174.3198.7235.2257.5261.62453253.2257.5258.1258.2258.0257.5258.4260.3260 7261.1261.1260.22601258 4255.0256.2261.2263.0263.6264.6265.7266.1264.743.543 644.245646.447 548.249151.154 356.958.761.864567.369 570.972.775.678.580.883.585.286.888.590.292.295.8100 0105.2112.5121.6128.4133.3139.1152.1166.6180 4194.3210.9234.2270.3305.7333.3287,7290.1292.5295.4299.6303.5308.8312.2317.3318 6320.6321.8323.9325 3325 5328.4331.8334.9337.0338.9339.7340.3338.6335.656.056.257.258.558.558.658.859.261.165.168.070.473.276 280.383 284 385.987.589.190.491.792.994.095.095.996.998.2100 0102.4105.7110.1115.2119.2124.3130.6137.3144 7153.5164.0176.0191.6208.2224.02009201.9203.0204.2205.9206.8207.8210.3211.92136215.0216.5217.82186219 6220.1221.8222.6224.8226.0226.9228.9230.2230.838.138,138,640.342.144.245.146749.051.954.556.059.362 264.866768.270.173.376.479.081.983.985.587.389.291.595.3100.0105.7113.8123.7130.8135.9141.8156.0171.9186 8201.6219.4244.9285.1324.3354.2304.2306.9309.5312.8317.4321.9328.1331.7337.5338 7340.8342.0344.2345.7345.7349.1352.8356.5358.5360.5361.3361.6359.3355.547.247 348.752153.655 756.959 464.969670.371175.777 579.079 579.781.183.885.787.388.889.790.892.093.294.596.7100.0104.4110.1116.7122.1125.8130.7143.7157.1167 5178.4191.2213.0244.0270.6288.4257.6260.4262.3264.2267.0269.5272.7274.9278.22790280.1280.8281.42821281 7282.9286.0289.7291.5292.5292.9294.0293.6292.183.986.387.083.389.390.491.692.994.397.3100.0104.4110.3117.0122.0126.1133.8146.9160.2169.2179.8193.8213.1238.0261.7279.3251.2252.5260.2263.5265.6268.6269 4270.4271.1272.1273.4273.6275.7278.3280.7282.0282.7283.1284.0283.6282.583 385.287.088389.390.591.693.094.396.6100 0104.6110.7117.6123.1126.9131.3142.2155.3165 5175.8188.7207.0232.8257.1276.1245.7246.8248.1255.6259.0261.3264.82659267.2267.9268.5269.5269.8272.2274.9277.3278.7279,8280.4281.5281,2279.990.190.391.894.294.494.795.094.696.397.8100.0101.5104.2107,0111.2114.3123.5159.7176.6189.3207.3220.4275.9361.1410.0416.1381.7401.1409.3409,8411.3414.0415.7416.1417.1414.9414,1414.6416.4413.0406.1395.7402.1418.6424.5424.5424.2425.0422.6419.91 fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, etc.Note.—Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.224
TABLE B-55.—Changes in consumer price indexes, commodities and services, 1948-82[Percent change]194819491950195119521953195419551956195719581959I960. .1961196219631964 .196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982Year or month1981:JanFebMarADrIvTayJune .JulyAusSeptOctNovDec1982:JanFebMar.AprMayJuneJulvAugSeptOctNovDecAlt itemsDec.toDec. 127185.85.9.9.6-.5.42.9301.81.51.571.2161.21.93.43.04.76.1553.4348.812.27.0486.89.013.312 48.93.90.81.07.6.8.91.1 81.0.2.3.34.3-.1.4101.26.2.2.3_ 2-.4Yeartoyear7.8101.07.92.2.8.5-.41.53.62.7.81.61.01.11.21.31.72.92.94.25.4594.3336.211.09.15.86.57.711.313 510.46.10.81.0.6.4.8.71.1.81.1.4.5,43.2-.31.01.06.3.2.53Dec.toDec. 11.7417.75.9-.6-1.4_.42.62.61.3.61.1o1.014.81.62.52.53.85.5402.93410.412.76.3336.18913.01116.03.6Total0.71.26.4.4..5,75.6!o,22.3~\o101.45-.0'.3-.0Yeartoyear7.2-2 6.69.01.3-.9-.9.93.12.3.1.9.5.9.91.11.22.61.83.74.54.73.43.07.412.08.94.35.87.111.412.28.44.0UnadjustedSeasonallyadjustedUnadjustedSeasonallyad-Justed0.61.1,40A.8.6A2.3.1-is191.36.0.2.6.3CommoditiesDec.toDec. 1-0.8-3 79.67.4-1.1-1.3-1.6-.93.12.82.2-.83.1= 91.5191.43.43.91.24.37.22.24.34720.112.26.5 68.011.810.210.24.33.1FoodYeartoyear8.5401.411.11.8-1.5-.2-1.4.73.34.2-1.61.01.3.91.41.32.25.0.93.65.15.53.04.314.514.48.53.16.310.010.98.67.94.0Commoditiesless foodDec.toDec 15.3485.74.6~.2-1.402.52.2.81.5-.3.6.71.2.71.93.13.74.54.82.32.55.013.26.25.14.97.714.311.56.73.8Change from preceding monthSeasonallyUnadjustedadjusted0.8 0.4 0.6.6 1.35 .3 7.4~X \\ .7A 2 .61.0 .7 .64 .5 5.2-.1 .3 .2-.2 .1 .1 .1 .112 7 - 2.8 .6 .0-.1 -.4 -.3.3 -.1.e .8 1.1.8 .6 1.72 .1 6-.4 3 .1.1.0.2 .6-2 .1 .2.0 1 -.1UnadjustedYeartoyear63483.2534.4433.3202.5403.82.93.3201.9201.92.2394.45.26.9815.6384.49.39.5837.78.511.015.413.19.01.1 881.01.31.117121.5.5.9.55!o.9.9.86.6.1.2-.1-.8Dec.toDec. 1Energy 2-0.74.31.5-112.1- 8-22.01.81.41.73.1453.12.816.821.611.66.97.28.037.418.111.91.33.15.120!4.7.41.22.14-.8-1.7= 2.61.64.11.40-.1.2-.6-.6Yeartoyear0.21.72.62.33-.41.81.62.21.52.72.73.92.88.029.310.67.29.56.325.230.913.51.5ServicesDec.Year toto Dec. 1year77 6115 3,6-.1 3.67.5 5.2.9 4.6.2 4.2-1.1 1.9_ 7 231.0 3.131 4.51.1 2.71.3 3.7.4 2.73 19.7 1.77 23.8 1.8.6 2.614 4.92.6 4.037 6.14.2 7.441 823.8 4.122 363.4 6.210.6 11.39.2 8.150 7.35.4 7.958 9.311.7 13.713 8 \A28.6 13.04.0 4.3SeasonallyUnadjustedadjusted0.7 1.112 88511.0.5 1.4.5 1.38 1.76 11.8 1.6.4 .4.2 .6.4 ,41 70 .4-.5 .1-.5 .9.9 1.01.5 .98 .6.2 .6.2 .2.8 .2.3 — 5.2 -.9SeasonallyadjustedUnadjustedSeasonallyadjusted1 Changes from December to December are based on unadjusted indexes.2 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, etc.Note—Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.225
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CONTENTSPageECONOMIC REPORT OF THE
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
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Monetary policy will play a critica
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Interest Rates and the U.S. Trade D
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THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
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CONTENTSPageCHAPTER 1. FROM RECESSI
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PageConclusions 122CHAPTER 6. REVIE
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CHAPTER 1From Recession to Recovery
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slowed somewhat in the 1970s regard
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nal GNP growth is reflected in a sl
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inflation. More specifically, the A
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inflation rate, or with a 12 percen
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1988, an increase of about one-four
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CHAPTER 2The Dual Problems of Struc
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frequently associated with poor hea
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Chart 2-2Distribution of Unemployme
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Chart 2-4Distribution of Unemployme
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These findings suggest several conc
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Wage RigidityA number of studies sh
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that these measures may have caused
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Most young people find jobs or leav
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to employers who hire youths. Tax c
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defined broadly to include individu
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ship between incomplete experience
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CHAPTER 3The United States in the W
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with 2.6 percent in the other Organ
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TABLE 3-1 .—Structure ofthe U.S.
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TABLE 3-2.—Trade balances by comm
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concentrate on doing what it does r
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the United States will depress pric
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Chart 3-3Real Exchange Rates Of Maj
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AN UNDERVALUED YEN?The explanations
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arily reduced the international com
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nancial markets. These transactions
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TABLE 3-6.—Economic performance b
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were undoubtedly a highly favorable
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of lenders that some debtors will n
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CHAPTER 4Increasing Capital Formati
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ate of net investment was required,
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able share in Japan and 56 percent
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During the 1970s, productivity grow
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MEASURING NATIONAL SAVINGDomestic s
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TAX RULES AND PERSONAL SAVINGMany e
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on consumption taxation might also
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Nevertheless, a number of economic
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tion permitted businesses to deprec
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A final problem under current tax l
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fleeted efforts to deal with proble
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egulation was probably not applicab
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Aeronautics Board, for example, the
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system resulted. Price controls, wh
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NGPA, both controlled and decontrol
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Price and allocation controls only
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nications industries through the re
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Several major pieces of legislation
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tempt to set cartel rates would be
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computer information and advertisin
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of computer technology to the payme
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trend by widening the sources and u
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changes. That is, members can arbit
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ceived to be a consequence of exces
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lowest point in the post-World War
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ing. Partly in response to the drop
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Chart 6-3Ratio of Consumer Installm
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Chart 6-4RATIO1.85Real Inventory/Sa
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percent increase in real defense pu
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8.8 percent in 1981. These declines
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housing. Borrowing by the nonfinanc
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orous competitor for credit as usur
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1982 their share had risen to over
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TABLE 6-9.—Economic outlook for 1
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A critical element in achieving hea
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Report to the President on the Acti
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ety of interagency and internationa
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ence J. Kotlikoff (Yale University)
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CONTENTSNATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDIT
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B-70. Mortgage debt outstanding by
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NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
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TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
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19291933193919401941194219431944194
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TABLE B-5.—Changes in GNP and GNP
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TABLE B-7.—Gross national product
Page 179 and 180: TABLE B-9.—Gross national product
Page 181 and 182: TABLE B-ll.—Gross national produc
Page 183 and 184: TABLE B-13.—Output, costs, and pr
Page 185 and 186: TABLE B-14.—Personal consumption
Page 187 and 188: TABLE B-16.—Gross and net private
Page 189 and 190: TABLE B-18.—Inventories and final
Page 191 and 192: TABLE B-20.—Relation of national
Page 193 and 194: TABLE B-21.—National income by ty
Page 195 and 196: TABLE B-22.—Sources of personal i
Page 197 and 198: TABLE B-24.—Total and per capita
Page 199 and 200: Year or quarterTotalTotalTABLE B-26
Page 201 and 202: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
Page 203 and 204: TABLE B-29.—Noninstitutional popu
Page 205 and 206: TABLE B-31.—Selected employment a
Page 207 and 208: TABLE B-33.—Civilian unemployment
Page 209 and 210: TABLE B-35.—Unemployment by reaso
Page 211 and 212: TABLE B-37.— Wage and salary work
Page 213 and 214: TABLE B-39.—Average weekly earnin
Page 215 and 216: TABLE B-41.—Changes in productivi
Page 217 and 218: TABLE B-43-—Industrial production
Page 219 and 220: TABLE B-45.—Capacity utilization
Page 221 and 222: TABLE B-46.—New construction acti
Page 223 and 224: TABLE B-48.—Nonfarm business expe
Page 225 and 226: TABLE B-50.—Manufacturers' shipme
Page 227 and 228: Year or monthAllitemsPRICESTABLE B-
Page 229: TABLE B-53.—Consumer price indexe
Page 233 and 234: TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexe
Page 239 and 240: MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AND FINANCETAB
Page 241 and 242: TABLE B-63.—Commercial bank loans
Page 243 and 244: TABLE B-64.—Total funds raised in
Page 245 and 246: TABLE B-66.—Aggregate reserves of
Page 247 and 248: TABLE B-67 .—Bond yields and inte
Page 249 and 250: TABLE B-69.—Consumer installment
Page 251 and 252: TABLE B-71-—Mortgage debt outstan
Page 253 and 254: TABLE B-72.—Federal budget receip
Page 255 and 256: TABLE B-74.—Relation of Federal G
Page 257 and 258: TABLE B-76.—Federal Government re
Page 259 and 260: TABLE B-78.—State and local gover
Page 261 and 262: TABLE B-80.—Estimated ownership o
Page 263 and 264: CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCETABLE
Page 265 and 266: Year or quarterTABLE B-84.—Corpor
Page 267 and 268: TABLE B-86.—Relation of profits a
Page 269 and 270: TABLE B-88.—Determinants of busin
Page 271 and 272: TABLE B-9Q.~Current assets and liab
Page 273 and 274: TABLE B-92.—Common stock prices a
Page 275 and 276: AGRICULTURETABLE B-94.—Farm incom
Page 277 and 278: TABLE B-96.—Farm input use, selec
Page 279 and 280: TABLE B-98.—U.S. exports and impo
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INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-100
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TABLE B-101.—U.S. international t
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TABLE B-103.—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-105.—International invest
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TABLE B-107.— World trade balance
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TABLE B-109.—Growth rates in real
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TABLE B-lll.—Unemployment rate, a
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