TABLE B-68.—Consumer credit outstanding and net change, 1930-82[Millions <strong>of</strong> dollars]Amount outstanding (end <strong>of</strong> month)Net change from preceding periodYear and monthTotalTotalInstallment credit lAutomobileRevolving2TotalInstallmentcredit»TotalNoninstallmentMobilehome 8 O<strong>the</strong>r credit 4AutomobileNoninstallmentcredit 41950: Dec1951: Dec1952: Dec1953: Dec1954: Dec1955: Dec1956: Dec1957: Dec1958: Dec1959: DecI960: Dec1961: Dec1962: Dec1963: Dec1964: Dec1965: Dec1966: Dec1967: Dec1968: Dec1969: Dec1970: Dec1971: Dec1972: Dec1973: Dec1974: Dec1975: Dec1976: Dec1977: Dec1978: Dec...1979: Dec1980: Dec.1981: Dec1981:JanFebMar....%~June...July...,Aug....Sept...OctNovDec1982:JanFebMar...,AprMay....June...July....Aug....Sept...OctNov25,64127,26832,55136,73638,19245,34849,26852,19152,70260,74165,10467,63573,91782,80592,591103,207109,749115,430126,949137,742143,113157,795177,639203,077213,427223,140248,916289,133337,917383,363388,239413,544384,847383,232385,685388,857391,077394,531397,210401,449406,234406,670407,970413,544409,444406,682406,520408,109409,500412,599413,366415,140417,624417,422419,76815,50316,22020,47024,25424,89130,26933,17135,44335,33941,12345,05146,02750,99457,82965,57273,88179,33983,14891,681101,161105,528118,255133,173155,108164,594171,996193,525230,564273,645312,024313,472333,375310,760309,385311,071313,669315,679318,792320,656324,161328,187328,652329,053333,375330,135327,435327,131328,363329,338331,851332,471333,808335,948334,977336,9916,0155,9587,6359,6859,74713,47114,48415,47214,25816,63218,08317,59919,92422,84225,81729,35530,99231,13134,34836,94636,32540,51947,86253,77254,26657,24267,70782,911101,647116,362116,838126,431115,778116,195118,049119,076119,582120,400121,476123,481125,703126,344126,385126,431125,525125,294125,559126,201127,220128,415128,359128,281129,085128,619129,5942,1053,7205,1288,5289,70011,70913,68115,01917,18939,27448,30956,93758,35263,04957,55656,04755,35655,71655,82056,79856,76457,28058,31858,45158,92363,04961,43359,51458,49158,64158,64759,30259,82460,47560,93260,91761,5002,4617,2269,52613,58014,64214,43414,57314,94515,23516,83817,32218,48617,20217,11317,16217,34217,57617,70417,76017,95918,12418,30018,38018,48618,39718,34318,36318,40218,47918,54318,60118,74118,77818,81418,8219,48810,26212,83514,56915,14416,79a18,68719,97121,08124,49126,96828,42831,07034,98739,75544,52648,34752,01755,22860,49561,61461,98266,08576,04782,00585,30194,05693,434108,454121,887120,960125,409120,224120,030120,504121,535122,701123,890124,656125,441126,042125,557125,365125,409124,780124,284124,718125,119124,992125,591125,687126,311127,153126,627127,07610,13811,04812,08112,48213,30115,07916,09716,74817,36319,61820,05321,60822,92324,97627,01929,32630,41032,28235,26836,58137,58539,54044,46647,96948,83351,14455,39158,56964,27171,33974,76780,16974,08773,84774,61475,18875,39875,73976,55477,28878,04778,01878,91780,16979,30979.24779,38979,74680,16280,74880,89581,33281,67682,44582,7774,7891,6275,2834,1851,4567,1563,9202,9235118,0394,3632,5316,2828,8889,78610,6166,5425,68111,51910,7935,37114,68219,84425,43810,3509,71325,77640,21748,78445,4463,2717174,2503,7846375,3782,9022,272-1045,7843,9289764,9676,8357,7438,3095,4583,8098,5339,4804,36712,72714,91821,9359,4867,40221,52937,03943,08138,3791,537-571,6772,050623,7241,013988-1,2142,3741,451-4842,3252,9182,9753,5381,6371393,2172,598-6214,1947,3435,9104942,97610,46515,20418,73614,7154,876 1,448 47625,305 19,903 9,5931,7041,9623,2083,5182,0782,7082,7912,5573,4305841,2124321,620-5165542,0582,0012,279992-1491,138542,656Seasonally adjusted s1,2061,8452,9712,7221,5712,0311,5512,4282,9751,002600-33443759901,1751,3991,349570661,092-3242,523318311,526648-1141491,0561,8592,0791,024564 68-121-56-2823395965561-402505-781,8161,5189101,0334018191,7781,0186516152,2554351,5551,3152,0532,0432,3071,0841,8722,9861,3131,00419554,9263,5038642,3114,2473,1785,7037,0673,4285,4024981172377965076771,240129455-4186124651,177-591-436883602930422-215463781331 Installment credit covers most short* and intermediate-term credit extended to individuals through regular business channels,usually to finance <strong>the</strong> purchase <strong>of</strong> consumer goods and services or to refinance debts incurred for such purposes, and scheduled to berepaid (or with <strong>the</strong> option <strong>of</strong> repayment) in two or more installments. Credit secured by real estate is generally excluded.a Consists <strong>of</strong> credit cards at retailers, gasoline companies, and commercial banks, and check credit at commercial banks. Prior to1968, included in "o<strong>the</strong>r," except gasoline companies, included in noninstallment credit prior to 1971. Beginning 1977, includes openendcredit at retailers, previously included in o<strong>the</strong>r. Also beginning 1977, some retail credit was reclassified from commercial intoconsumer credit.4 Because <strong>of</strong> inconsistencies in <strong>the</strong> data and infrequent benchmarking, series on noninstallment credit is no longer published by <strong>the</strong>Federal Reserve Board on a regular basis. Data are shown here as a general indication <strong>of</strong> trends.o For installment credit, computed as <strong>the</strong> difference between extensions and liquidations (both seasonally adjusted); see also TableB-69. For noninstallment credit, computed as <strong>the</strong> change from one month to ano<strong>the</strong>r in <strong>the</strong> seasonally adjusted amount outstanding.Source: Board <strong>of</strong> Governors <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Federal Reserve System.242
TABLE B-69.—Consumer installment credit extended and liquidated, 1950-82[Millions <strong>of</strong> dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]Year or monthTotalAutomobileRevolving *Mobile home 2O<strong>the</strong>rExtendedLiquidatedExtendedLiquidatedExtendedLiquidatedExtendedLiquidatedExtendedLiquidated1950...1951...1952...1953...1954...,1955....1956....1957....1958....1959...,22,13024,58330,61632,57932,26540,26340,88643,10140,95649,13418,86123,86726,35528,79431,62534,88237,89940,75941,29043,3958,4458,95111,61012,74011,74116,73215,57216,55414,28718,0086,9069,0089,93210,68911,67913,00814,55915,56715,50115,63813,68515,63219,00619,83920,52423,53125,31426,54726,66931,12611,95514,85916,42318,10519,94621,87423,34025,19225,78927,7571960...1961....1962...1963...1964...1965...1966...,1967...,1968....1969...,50,82750,59857,56264,66072,44579,91883,82189,058101,426109,42247,02249,73552,60157,82264,61671,61678,36585,19492,07599,94518,11216,47720,16422,61724,79227,91327,84427,62332,22833,68616,66116,96017,84019,69921,81524,38626,20627,48229,01331.0903,4816,1822,7264,56732,71534,12137,39842,04347,65352,00555,97761,43565,71769,55430,36132,77534,76138,12342,80147,23052,15957,71260,33664,2881970...,1971...,1972...1973....1974...,1975...,1976...,1977...,1978...,1979...115,007138,046152,275173,035172,765180,083210,740257,600297,668324,777110,352127,789136,787152,817163,276172,675189,179222,138254,589286,39630,85736,70643,70249,60646,51452,42063,74375,64187,98193,90131,41432,51238,08143,69646,01949,44453,27860,43769,24579,1868,68921,86224,65928,70233,21336,95643,93487,596105,125120,1747,27820,81823,48526,69931,24335,61641,76481,34896,090111,5466122,5215,1217,0615,7884,3264,8595,7125,4126,4714781,7542,9754,1844,7204,5364,7205,3415,1264,86874,84976,95778,79387,66687,25086,38198,20488,65199,150104,23171,18872,70572,24678,23881,29483,07989,41775,01284,12890,7961980...,1931...,306,076336,341304,628316,44783,45494,40482,97784,809128,068140,135126,653135,4385,0936,0284,6104,86789,46195,77490,38891,3331981:Jan..,Feb..Mar.,feJune,July.Aug.SeptOct..Nov.Dec.1982:Jan..Feb..Mar.Apr..May.JuneJuly.Aug.SeptOct..Nov.27,46628,68229,37029,27128,37729,22328,29028.32329,40626,83627,37026,65626,88827,15027,46228,68429,19729,73727,51427,57928,26828,06231,61026,26026,83726,39926,54926,80627,19226,73925,89526,43125,83426,77026,68926,44527,07526,47227,50927,79828,38826,94427,51327,17628,38629,0877,3438,2298,4997,4597,3847,5158,0598,3969,0007,4908,0737,3527,4747,2837,1837,8718,4298,1827,3327,1127,5467,97010,3297,3127,3986,9736,8117,4987,3667,0036,5376,9216,4667,5097,2847,5957,3397,2117,6387,4707.5277,2717,5147,0418,0488,51311,53511,73811,62012,38311,87612,65811,70611,66312,26311,75311,37911,59211,07011,73012,14312,41612,52813,36112,55112,49712,46412,34012,48910.94411,41911,11011,44311,52011,65111,59011,48611,69211,42911,35811,53311,26611,88511,83611,91711,99112,85411,93912,35412,25412,23212,3823924056165936205094455205324754795084343644115444784594415814524764844514925524103723993863643753534043654604083964934083923784404424804448,1968,3108,6358,8368,4978,5417,7447,6117,1187,4397,2047,9107,7737,7257,8537,7627,7357,1907,3897,8067,2768,3087,5537,5287,7647,8857,4167,7767,7607,5087,4437,5867,4997,5077,1247,4437,0297,4617,9297,6157,3567,2057,4397,6267,7481 Consists <strong>of</strong> credit cards at retailers, gasoline companies, 2nd commercial banks, and check credit at commercial banks. Prior to1968, included in "o<strong>the</strong>r," except gasoline companies, included in noninstallment credit prior to 1971. Beginning 1977, includes openendcredit at retailers, previously included in ''o<strong>the</strong>r/' Also beginning 1977, some retail credit was reclassified from commercial intoconsumer credit.2 Not reported separately prior to July 1970.Note.—Installment credit covers most short- and intermediate-term credit extended to individuals through regular business channels,usually to finance <strong>the</strong> purchase <strong>of</strong> consumer goods and services or to refinance debts incurred for such purposes, and scheduled to berepaid (or with <strong>the</strong> option <strong>of</strong> repayment) in two or more installments. Credit secured by real estate is generally excluded.Liquidated credit includes repayments, charge<strong>of</strong>fs, 2nd o<strong>the</strong>r credit.See also Table 6-68.Source: Board <strong>of</strong> Governors <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Federal Reserve System.243
- Page 5:
CONTENTSPageECONOMIC REPORT OF THE
- Page 9 and 10:
ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
- Page 11 and 12:
Monetary policy will play a critica
- Page 13 and 14:
Interest Rates and the U.S. Trade D
- Page 15:
THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
- Page 19 and 20:
CONTENTSPageCHAPTER 1. FROM RECESSI
- Page 21 and 22:
PageConclusions 122CHAPTER 6. REVIE
- Page 23 and 24:
CHAPTER 1From Recession to Recovery
- Page 25 and 26:
slowed somewhat in the 1970s regard
- Page 27 and 28:
nal GNP growth is reflected in a sl
- Page 29 and 30:
inflation. More specifically, the A
- Page 31 and 32:
inflation rate, or with a 12 percen
- Page 33 and 34:
1988, an increase of about one-four
- Page 35 and 36:
CHAPTER 2The Dual Problems of Struc
- Page 37 and 38:
frequently associated with poor hea
- Page 39 and 40:
Chart 2-2Distribution of Unemployme
- Page 41 and 42:
Chart 2-4Distribution of Unemployme
- Page 43 and 44:
These findings suggest several conc
- Page 45 and 46:
Wage RigidityA number of studies sh
- Page 47 and 48:
that these measures may have caused
- Page 49 and 50:
Most young people find jobs or leav
- Page 51 and 52:
to employers who hire youths. Tax c
- Page 53 and 54:
defined broadly to include individu
- Page 55 and 56:
ship between incomplete experience
- Page 57 and 58:
CHAPTER 3The United States in the W
- Page 59 and 60:
with 2.6 percent in the other Organ
- Page 61 and 62:
TABLE 3-1 .—Structure ofthe U.S.
- Page 63 and 64:
TABLE 3-2.—Trade balances by comm
- Page 65 and 66:
concentrate on doing what it does r
- Page 67 and 68:
the United States will depress pric
- Page 69 and 70:
Chart 3-3Real Exchange Rates Of Maj
- Page 71 and 72:
AN UNDERVALUED YEN?The explanations
- Page 73 and 74:
arily reduced the international com
- Page 75 and 76:
nancial markets. These transactions
- Page 77 and 78:
TABLE 3-6.—Economic performance b
- Page 79 and 80:
were undoubtedly a highly favorable
- Page 81 and 82:
of lenders that some debtors will n
- Page 83 and 84:
CHAPTER 4Increasing Capital Formati
- Page 85 and 86:
ate of net investment was required,
- Page 87 and 88:
able share in Japan and 56 percent
- Page 89 and 90:
During the 1970s, productivity grow
- Page 91 and 92:
MEASURING NATIONAL SAVINGDomestic s
- Page 93 and 94:
TAX RULES AND PERSONAL SAVINGMany e
- Page 95 and 96:
on consumption taxation might also
- Page 97 and 98:
Nevertheless, a number of economic
- Page 99 and 100:
tion permitted businesses to deprec
- Page 101 and 102:
A final problem under current tax l
- Page 103 and 104:
fleeted efforts to deal with proble
- Page 105 and 106:
egulation was probably not applicab
- Page 107 and 108:
Aeronautics Board, for example, the
- Page 109 and 110:
system resulted. Price controls, wh
- Page 111 and 112:
NGPA, both controlled and decontrol
- Page 113 and 114:
Price and allocation controls only
- Page 115 and 116:
nications industries through the re
- Page 117 and 118:
Several major pieces of legislation
- Page 119 and 120:
tempt to set cartel rates would be
- Page 121 and 122:
computer information and advertisin
- Page 123 and 124:
of computer technology to the payme
- Page 125 and 126:
trend by widening the sources and u
- Page 127 and 128:
changes. That is, members can arbit
- Page 129 and 130:
ceived to be a consequence of exces
- Page 131 and 132:
lowest point in the post-World War
- Page 133 and 134:
ing. Partly in response to the drop
- Page 135 and 136:
Chart 6-3Ratio of Consumer Installm
- Page 137 and 138:
Chart 6-4RATIO1.85Real Inventory/Sa
- Page 139 and 140:
percent increase in real defense pu
- Page 141 and 142:
8.8 percent in 1981. These declines
- Page 143 and 144:
housing. Borrowing by the nonfinanc
- Page 145 and 146:
orous competitor for credit as usur
- Page 147 and 148:
1982 their share had risen to over
- Page 149 and 150:
TABLE 6-9.—Economic outlook for 1
- Page 151:
A critical element in achieving hea
- Page 155 and 156:
LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
- Page 157 and 158:
Report to the President on the Acti
- Page 159 and 160:
ety of interagency and internationa
- Page 161:
ence J. Kotlikoff (Yale University)
- Page 165 and 166:
CONTENTSNATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDIT
- Page 167 and 168:
B-70. Mortgage debt outstanding by
- Page 169 and 170:
NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
- Page 171 and 172:
TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
- Page 173 and 174:
19291933193919401941194219431944194
- Page 175 and 176:
TABLE B-5.—Changes in GNP and GNP
- Page 177 and 178:
TABLE B-7.—Gross national product
- Page 179 and 180:
TABLE B-9.—Gross national product
- Page 181 and 182:
TABLE B-ll.—Gross national produc
- Page 183 and 184:
TABLE B-13.—Output, costs, and pr
- Page 185 and 186:
TABLE B-14.—Personal consumption
- Page 187 and 188:
TABLE B-16.—Gross and net private
- Page 189 and 190:
TABLE B-18.—Inventories and final
- Page 191 and 192:
TABLE B-20.—Relation of national
- Page 193 and 194:
TABLE B-21.—National income by ty
- Page 195 and 196:
TABLE B-22.—Sources of personal i
- Page 197 and 198: TABLE B-24.—Total and per capita
- Page 199 and 200: Year or quarterTotalTotalTABLE B-26
- Page 201 and 202: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
- Page 203 and 204: TABLE B-29.—Noninstitutional popu
- Page 205 and 206: TABLE B-31.—Selected employment a
- Page 207 and 208: TABLE B-33.—Civilian unemployment
- Page 209 and 210: TABLE B-35.—Unemployment by reaso
- Page 211 and 212: TABLE B-37.— Wage and salary work
- Page 213 and 214: TABLE B-39.—Average weekly earnin
- Page 215 and 216: TABLE B-41.—Changes in productivi
- Page 217 and 218: TABLE B-43-—Industrial production
- Page 219 and 220: TABLE B-45.—Capacity utilization
- Page 221 and 222: TABLE B-46.—New construction acti
- Page 223 and 224: TABLE B-48.—Nonfarm business expe
- Page 225 and 226: TABLE B-50.—Manufacturers' shipme
- Page 227 and 228: Year or monthAllitemsPRICESTABLE B-
- Page 229 and 230: TABLE B-53.—Consumer price indexe
- Page 231 and 232: TABLE B-55.—Changes in consumer p
- Page 233 and 234: TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexe
- Page 235 and 236: TABLE B-58.—Producer price indexe
- Page 237 and 238: TABLE B-59.—Producer price indexe
- Page 239 and 240: MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AND FINANCETAB
- Page 241 and 242: TABLE B-63.—Commercial bank loans
- Page 243 and 244: TABLE B-64.—Total funds raised in
- Page 245 and 246: TABLE B-66.—Aggregate reserves of
- Page 247: TABLE B-67 .—Bond yields and inte
- Page 251 and 252: TABLE B-71-—Mortgage debt outstan
- Page 253 and 254: TABLE B-72.—Federal budget receip
- Page 255 and 256: TABLE B-74.—Relation of Federal G
- Page 257 and 258: TABLE B-76.—Federal Government re
- Page 259 and 260: TABLE B-78.—State and local gover
- Page 261 and 262: TABLE B-80.—Estimated ownership o
- Page 263 and 264: CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCETABLE
- Page 265 and 266: Year or quarterTABLE B-84.—Corpor
- Page 267 and 268: TABLE B-86.—Relation of profits a
- Page 269 and 270: TABLE B-88.—Determinants of busin
- Page 271 and 272: TABLE B-9Q.~Current assets and liab
- Page 273 and 274: TABLE B-92.—Common stock prices a
- Page 275 and 276: AGRICULTURETABLE B-94.—Farm incom
- Page 277 and 278: TABLE B-96.—Farm input use, selec
- Page 279 and 280: TABLE B-98.—U.S. exports and impo
- Page 281 and 282: INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-100
- Page 283 and 284: TABLE B-101.—U.S. international t
- Page 285 and 286: TABLE B-103.—U.S. merchandise exp
- Page 287 and 288: TABLE B-105.—International invest
- Page 289 and 290: TABLE B-107.— World trade balance
- Page 291 and 292: TABLE B-109.—Growth rates in real
- Page 293: TABLE B-lll.—Unemployment rate, a