Economic Report of the President

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TABLE B-104.—U.S. merchandise exports and imports by commodity groups, 1960-82[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]Year ormonthMerchandise exports 1Domestic exportsTotaldomesticandFood,foreign Total 23exports 3andtobaccoF.a.s. value 8Crudematerialsandfuels 4ManufacturedgoodsTotal 3Merchandise importsFood,beverages,andtobaccoGeneral imports"Crudematerialsandfuels*Customs valueManufacturedgoodsTotal,elf.value 7Merchandise trade balanceExportslessimports,customsvalueExportslessimports,f.a.s.Exportslessimports,elf.I960..1961..1962..1963..1964..1965..1966..1967..1968..1969..1970..1971..1972..1973..1974..1974*1975*1976*1977*1978*1979*1980198119821981:JanFebMar....June..July...Aug.,.Sept..oeSNov...Dec...1982:JanFebMar...tpJune..July...Aug...Sept..OclNov...Dec...,19,65920,22620,98622,46725,83226,74229,49031,03034,06337,33242,65943,54949,19970,82397,99898,092 96,679107,652 106,161115,223 113,549121,232 119,024143,681 141,142181,860 178,633220,630 216,515233,677 228,899212,193 207,07618,90219,78821,27819,78618,89919,75019,28919,03119,55119,16319,15318,88518,73718,70418,60217,84318,21818,82218,02717,49817,38716,69815,69316,33519,45919,98220,71722,18225,47926,39929,05430,64633,62636,78842.02542,91148,39969,73096,63418,53619,46520,84319,37718,52819,34018,91918,72019,10818,73318,75118,37718,35018,34118,12717,44117,80718,38617,63817,17716,65116,31015,31715,9023,1673,4663,7434,1884,6374,5195,1864,7104,5924,4465,0585,0766,56912,93815,23315,23316,79317,23415,96320,60424,58730,40733,20626,9772,9342,9433,3042,8912,6672,5732,5492,4702,7722,9202,6752,5152,2792,4822,6732,5062,4782,4211,8962,1621,9092,1322,0861,9433,9423,8643,3563,7754,3374,2734,4044,7264,8655,0066,6926,4417,09110,73515,80215,80215,19716,09518,57920,95728,22233,71933,02233,5182,8152,9583,2192,5302,5262,3422,4302,6622,7952,8632,8722,9343,0763,4343,1512,8982,9122,7972,6172,6422,8322,6652,3612,42012,58312,78413,66814.29716,52917,43319,21820,84423,81826,78529,34430,44333,74044,73163,52363,52370,95177,24180,15194,473116,587143,891154,283139,71612,06512,81313,55813,27612,61913,45613,06012,99112,94712,45812,59012,31812,46311,87611,82211,42811,83712,56312,59011,88211,33410,98710,36910,66015,07314,76116,46417,20718,74921,42725,61826,88933,22636,04339,95145,56355,58369,476101,394102,55998,503123,477150,390174,757209,458244,871260,982243,95222,61621,91621,02922,24921,23222,00520,11423,24221,27423,07722,50819,74622,82919,09020,34917,38720,55821,31019,55923,49420,64421,09618,93718,8653,3923,4553,6743,8634,0224,0134,5904,7015,3655,3086,2306,4047,3799,23510,701F.a.s. value 84,4184,3344,6914,7555,0295,4405,7185,3676,0316,3916,5427,2688,83813,44631,8426,8636,5377,6498,0709,10611,24414,44615,75620,62423,01125,90730,41437,76745,00156,20210,709 32,064 55,2239,923 32,596 51,08011,891 41,474 64,77514,227 53,554 76,55415,743 51,901 100,31717,735 71,390 112,22618,551 93,973 125,122Customs value18,35017,8171,7361,5891,6121,4711,6651,4721,3901,4791,3931,5831,4131,5421,3401,1541,5291,4351,5691,5671,3891,6171,5811,6671,4981,46992,87374,4048,9769,0997,4718,8787,1468,2496,5767,7797,4117,6427,4686,1748,2695,8455,7175,0334,9066,1986,6457,1685,9686,7115,7706,181142,475.144,02211,27810,75011,37911,32511,81611,64511,62213,36111,97113,12712,82611,41412,58411,52712,40210,33713,21912,89910,98214,11112,43412,02811,03810,62128,74535,32038,24142,42948,34258,86273,573108,392110,875105,880132,498160,411186,045222,228256,984273^352254,88523,67922,91721,98323,26622,24823,03321,07424,39822,31724,19423,56820,69923,87019,90021,23718,16521,50922,25920,44924,57821,58022,02419,78319,7014,5865,4654,5225,2607,0835,3113,8724,1418371,2892,708-2,014-6,3841,348-3,39627,30531,759-3,714-2,127249-2,463-2,333-2,255-825-4,212-1,724-3,914-3,356-86141,7474562,3402,4881,5325,9963,2574,3983,2442,529-4,4679,149-8,254-29,158-31,076-27,599=24,2412,283-1,257-909230-4,793-9,6632,752-10,395-12,7831,772-17,274-39,179-42,364-40,368=36,354=39,675=42,691-4,777=3,129-7053,480-3,349-3,283-1,784=5,367= 2,766-5,031=4,415-1,814= 5.134-1,197= 2,635-322=3,291-3,437=2,422-7,080-4,192=5,326-4,090-3,3661 Beginning 1960, data have been adjusted for comparability with the revised commodity classifications effective in 1965.2 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excludedfrom total exports.9 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.4 Includes fats and oils.5 Includes machinery, transportation equipment, chemicals, metals, and other manufactures. Export data for these items includemilitary grant-aid shipments through 1977 and exclude them thereafter.8 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.7 C.i.f. {cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry into United States. Data for 1967-73 are estimates.6 F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis at U.S. port of exportation for exports and at foreign port of exportation for imports.Trade in gold is included beginning 1974. Export statistics cover all merchandise shipped from the U.S. customs area, except suppliesfor the US. Armed Forces. Exports include shipments under Agency for International Development and Food for Peace programs as wellas other private relief shipments.Data for 1980 and 1981 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected only in thefigures for domestic and foreign exports combined, total domestic exports, and trade balance.*Data for 1974=79 for domestic and foreign exports combined, total domestic exports, total general imports, and trade balanceInclude trade of the Virgin Islands.Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and International Trade Administration, Office of Trade Investment andAnalysis, Trade Performance Division).280
TABLE B-105.—International investment position of the United States at year-end, selected years, 1970-81[Billions of dollars]Type of investment 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1979 1980 1981Net international investment position of the United States..U.S. assets abroadU.S. official reserve assets..GoldSpecial drawing rights (SDRs)Reserve position in the International MonetaryFund (IMF)Foreign currency reservesOther U.S. Government assets..U.S. loans and other long-term assetsU.S. short-term assets other than reservesU.S. private assetsDirect investments abroad (book value)Foreign securitiesClaims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks, notincluded elsewhereClaims on unaffiliated foreigners reported byU.S. nonbanksForeign assets in the United States-Foreign official assetsU.S. Government securities lOther U.S. Government liabilitiesLiabilities reported by U.S. banks, not includedelsewhereOther official assetsOther foreign assetsDirect investments in the United States (bookvalue)Liabilities reported by U.S. banks, not includedelsewhereU.S. Treasury securitiesOther U.S. securities 2Liabilities to unaffiliated foreigners reported byU.S. nonbanks58.6165.514.511.1.91.9.632.129.72.5118.875.521.013.88.5106.826.117.71.76.7.080.713.322.71.234.78.837.1199.013.210.52.0.5.236.134.12.0149.789.927.620.711.4161.863.252.91.68.5.298.714.921.21.250.710.758.8255.715.911.72.41.9.038.436.32.1201.5110.128.246.217.0196.979.858.12.618.4.6117.125.141.81.734.913.683.8347.218.711.62.44.4.346.044.11.9282.4136.844.281.120.3263.4104.272.68.817.25.6159.130.853.57.054.913.076.2447.918.711.71.61.04.454.252.31.9375.0162.753.4130.828.1371.6173.0128.512.723.38.5198.742.577.78.953.616.094.9510.619.011.22.71.33.858.456.51.9433.2187.956.8157.031.5415.7159.7106.612.630.59.9256.054.5110.314.258.618.4121.6606.926.811.22.62.910.163.561.91.7516.6215.662.5203.934.7485.3175.8118.213.130.414.1309.468.4121.116.174.129.8160.3717.430.111.24.15.19.868.567.21.3618.8227.362.9293.535.0557.1180.1125.113.126.315.6377.189.8164.718.575.328.91 Includes Treasury and agency issues of securities.2 Corporate and other bonds and corporate stocks.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.281
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CONTENTSPageECONOMIC REPORT OF THE
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
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Monetary policy will play a critica
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Interest Rates and the U.S. Trade D
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THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
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CONTENTSPageCHAPTER 1. FROM RECESSI
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PageConclusions 122CHAPTER 6. REVIE
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CHAPTER 1From Recession to Recovery
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slowed somewhat in the 1970s regard
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nal GNP growth is reflected in a sl
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inflation. More specifically, the A
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inflation rate, or with a 12 percen
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1988, an increase of about one-four
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CHAPTER 2The Dual Problems of Struc
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frequently associated with poor hea
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Chart 2-2Distribution of Unemployme
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Chart 2-4Distribution of Unemployme
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These findings suggest several conc
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Wage RigidityA number of studies sh
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that these measures may have caused
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Most young people find jobs or leav
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to employers who hire youths. Tax c
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defined broadly to include individu
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ship between incomplete experience
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CHAPTER 3The United States in the W
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with 2.6 percent in the other Organ
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TABLE 3-1 .—Structure ofthe U.S.
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TABLE 3-2.—Trade balances by comm
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concentrate on doing what it does r
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the United States will depress pric
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Chart 3-3Real Exchange Rates Of Maj
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AN UNDERVALUED YEN?The explanations
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arily reduced the international com
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nancial markets. These transactions
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TABLE 3-6.—Economic performance b
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were undoubtedly a highly favorable
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of lenders that some debtors will n
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CHAPTER 4Increasing Capital Formati
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ate of net investment was required,
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able share in Japan and 56 percent
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During the 1970s, productivity grow
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MEASURING NATIONAL SAVINGDomestic s
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TAX RULES AND PERSONAL SAVINGMany e
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on consumption taxation might also
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Nevertheless, a number of economic
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tion permitted businesses to deprec
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A final problem under current tax l
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fleeted efforts to deal with proble
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egulation was probably not applicab
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Aeronautics Board, for example, the
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system resulted. Price controls, wh
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NGPA, both controlled and decontrol
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Price and allocation controls only
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nications industries through the re
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Several major pieces of legislation
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tempt to set cartel rates would be
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computer information and advertisin
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of computer technology to the payme
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trend by widening the sources and u
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changes. That is, members can arbit
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ceived to be a consequence of exces
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lowest point in the post-World War
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ing. Partly in response to the drop
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Chart 6-3Ratio of Consumer Installm
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Chart 6-4RATIO1.85Real Inventory/Sa
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percent increase in real defense pu
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8.8 percent in 1981. These declines
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housing. Borrowing by the nonfinanc
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orous competitor for credit as usur
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1982 their share had risen to over
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TABLE 6-9.—Economic outlook for 1
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A critical element in achieving hea
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Report to the President on the Acti
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ety of interagency and internationa
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ence J. Kotlikoff (Yale University)
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CONTENTSNATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDIT
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B-70. Mortgage debt outstanding by
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NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
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TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
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19291933193919401941194219431944194
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TABLE B-5.—Changes in GNP and GNP
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TABLE B-ll.—Gross national produc
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TABLE B-13.—Output, costs, and pr
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TABLE B-14.—Personal consumption
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TABLE B-16.—Gross and net private
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TABLE B-18.—Inventories and final
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TABLE B-20.—Relation of national
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TABLE B-21.—National income by ty
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TABLE B-22.—Sources of personal i
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TABLE B-24.—Total and per capita
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Year or quarterTotalTotalTABLE B-26
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POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
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TABLE B-29.—Noninstitutional popu
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TABLE B-31.—Selected employment a
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TABLE B-33.—Civilian unemployment
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TABLE B-35.—Unemployment by reaso
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TABLE B-37.— Wage and salary work
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TABLE B-39.—Average weekly earnin
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TABLE B-41.—Changes in productivi
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TABLE B-43-—Industrial production
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TABLE B-45.—Capacity utilization
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TABLE B-46.—New construction acti
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TABLE B-48.—Nonfarm business expe
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TABLE B-50.—Manufacturers' shipme
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Year or monthAllitemsPRICESTABLE B-
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TABLE B-53.—Consumer price indexe
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TABLE B-55.—Changes in consumer p
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TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexe
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Page 237 and 238: TABLE B-59.—Producer price indexe
Page 239 and 240: MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AND FINANCETAB
Page 241 and 242: TABLE B-63.—Commercial bank loans
Page 243 and 244: TABLE B-64.—Total funds raised in
Page 245 and 246: TABLE B-66.—Aggregate reserves of
Page 247 and 248: TABLE B-67 .—Bond yields and inte
Page 249 and 250: TABLE B-69.—Consumer installment
Page 251 and 252: TABLE B-71-—Mortgage debt outstan
Page 253 and 254: TABLE B-72.—Federal budget receip
Page 255 and 256: TABLE B-74.—Relation of Federal G
Page 257 and 258: TABLE B-76.—Federal Government re
Page 259 and 260: TABLE B-78.—State and local gover
Page 261 and 262: TABLE B-80.—Estimated ownership o
Page 263 and 264: CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCETABLE
Page 265 and 266: Year or quarterTABLE B-84.—Corpor
Page 267 and 268: TABLE B-86.—Relation of profits a
Page 269 and 270: TABLE B-88.—Determinants of busin
Page 271 and 272: TABLE B-9Q.~Current assets and liab
Page 273 and 274: TABLE B-92.—Common stock prices a
Page 275 and 276: AGRICULTURETABLE B-94.—Farm incom
Page 277 and 278: TABLE B-96.—Farm input use, selec
Page 279 and 280: TABLE B-98.—U.S. exports and impo
Page 281 and 282: INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-100
Page 283 and 284: TABLE B-101.—U.S. international t
Page 285: TABLE B-103.—U.S. merchandise exp
Page 289 and 290: TABLE B-107.— World trade balance
Page 291 and 292: TABLE B-109.—Growth rates in real
Page 293: TABLE B-lll.—Unemployment rate, a
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