Economic Report of the President

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1958195919601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982Year or month1981;JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAug...::::::::::::..Sept .........OctNovDec1982:JanFebMarApr(Jay..: 7JuneJulyAugSeptOctDecTABLE B-56.—Changes in special consumer price indexes, 1938-82[Percent change]All items lessenergyDec.toDec. 1191.414.8121.8131.93.5314.96.45.63.33.58.311.56.74.66.89.211.111.7864.2YeartoYear29.81511121.314153.2284.45.76.14.33.46.19.89.1566.37.810.011.710 06.7All items lessfood andenergyDec.toDec. 1182.281.5111.812153.3395.16.16.63.13.04.711.36.7616.48511.312.1964.5YeartoYearChange from preceding month0.6 5.5.9 91.3 .811.3.4.3.4.5.8 9.9.5.23- 1justed0.54.81.21.01.3.913.4.5.3.2.4.1.910 .9.5.4,2.4-.1=.52.32.1151.11.31.21.51.42.43.54.65.86.24.73.13.58.39.26.66.27.39.712.510.47.40.6.4.61.01.11.41.01.1.5.4.30.8.9.9.6.0.4-.1All iterns lessfood,< Jnergy,and homepurchaseandfina ice 1Dec. Yearto toDec. 1 Year4.65.25.73,42.94.011.16.36.85.56.97.59.99.46.00.5.8.'9.8.9.81.17.4,3,4.67.6.6.4.4.8.6.3YeartoYear3.74.4494.33.16.210.18.3576.4689.611.2956.1All items All items lessfoodDec. Year Dec. Yearto to to toDec. 1 Year Dec. 1 Year18 27 16 2.31.5 .8 2.3 1.915 16 10 177 10 1.1 1.012 11 12 1216 12 1.6 1.312 13 10 1319 17 1.6 1.43.4 2.9 3.3 2.330 29 3.5 3.447 4.2 4.9 4.46.1 5.4 5.7 5.55.5 5.9 6.5 6.03.4 4,3 3.1 4.63.4 3.3 3.0 3.08.8 6.2 5.6 3.912.2 11.0 12.2 9.97.0 9.1 7.1 9.348 58 6.2 6.66.8 6.5 6.3 6.59077 8.5 7,213.3 11.3 14.0 11.412.4 13.5 12.9 14.689 104 9.9 10.93.9 6.1 4.0 6.6SeasonallyUnadsonallySea-Unadjustedadjustejustejustedad-0.8 0.8 0.8 0.910 10 11 10s .64757.8 .8 1.1 .9.9 7 .9 .81.1 1.1 1.2 1.3.8 .8 .8 .810 11 12 12.4.'3 .5 .4 .6.3.2.4 .3 .2 .2.3 .2 .2 .2- 3 -.1 -2.4 .210 10 1*1 101.2 1.0 1.3 1.2.6 .6 .6 7.2 .423 2.1515 4= 2 1 — 1= .4= .5 •=.3UnadjustedSeasonallyUnadjustedSeasonallyadjustedUnadjustedSeasonallyadjustedAll itemsDec.toDec. 14.5 3.94.9 5.25.2 4.55.0 3.527 3.33.3 8.57.8 11.18.7 6.66.8 516.1 6.36,0 797.3 10.89.0 10.89.5 8.57.6 5.0Unadjusted0.6 0.9.8 13.6 .8.8 .67 .6.8 .61.0 .8.8 7.9 .8.8.6 .4.7 .4.5 .5.4.5 .2.671.0.6 7.4 .2.4 .57 .42 .1.5Seasonallyadjusted1 Changes from December to December are based on unadjusted indexes.2 All items less food, energy, and home purchase and financing, taxes, and insurance; estimated series.3 An experimental measure using a rental equivalence approach for homeownership costs. Effective with data for January 1983, theconsumer price index for all urban consumers will incorporate a rental equivalence measure.Note.—Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.0.710.8.4.5.876.6.4.1„, 21.08.364.3226
TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexes by stage of processing, 1947-82[1967=100]Finished goodsYear or monthTotalfinishedgoodsTotalConsumer foodsCrudeTotalFinished goods excluding consumer foodsTotalConsumer goodsDurableProcessedNondurableCapitalequipmentfinishedconsumergoods19471948..19491950195119521953195419551956195719581959I9601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973.197419751976197719781979198019811982 *74.079977.679 086.586 085.185.385 587.991193.293.093.793 794 093.794195.798.8100 0102.8106.6110.3113 7117.2127 9147.5163 4170.61817195.9217.7247.0269 8280.682.890 483.184 795.294389.488.786.586.389 394.590.192.191792.591.491.995.4101.6100 0103.6110.0113.5115 3121.7146 4166.91810180.4189 9207.2226.2239.5253 6259.399.4107.1101.392.2105.9112.8105.294.798.898.797.4103.594.3100.696.197.095.598.298.6104.8100.0107.5116.0116.3115.8121.21607180.81812193.9201.0216.8233.1237.2263.8252.580.287.680.183.493.291.386.787.684.484.387.993.189.590.790.991.790.790.894.9101.0100.0103.0108.9113.1115.1121.7143 9164.61813177.8187 3204.6223.8237.8250.6257.7100.0102.6105.4109.1113.1115.4120.1139.3156 2166.1177 7190.7213.3247.8273.3285.779.084.082.283.589.588.389.189.490.192.394.694.795.996.396.296.096.095.996.698.1100.0102.1104.6107.7111.4113.5118.6138.61531162.6174 3186.7211.5250.8276.5287.874.679.781.882.788.288.989.690.391.294.397.198.499.699.298 898.397.898.297.998.5100.0102.2104.0106.9110.8113.3115.4125.9138 2144.5152.8166.9183.2206.2218.6226.780.785.882.383 690.087 888.688.989.491.193.292.694.094.794 794.895.194.895.997.81000102.2105.0108.3111.7113.6120.5146.8163 0174.8189.3200.0231.3283.9319.6333.555.460 463.464971.272 473.674.576 782.487 589.891.591.791892.292.493.394.496.8100 0103.5106.9112.0116.6119.5123.5141.0162 5173.4184.6199.2216.5239.8264.3279.680.586582.583 991.890 789.289.188.589.892.494.493.694.594394.694.194.396.199.4100 0102.7106.6109.9112.9116.6129.2149.3163.6169.7180.7194.9217.9248.9271.3280.91981:JanFebMarAorJune. Sri:::: :; :" :JulySectOctNovDec1982: >JanFebMarAprMay :.:.: :.:.:JuneJuly .".Aug......OctNovDec260.9263 3266 0268.5269.6270 52718271 52715274 3274.7275.4277.9277.9277 3277 3277 8279.92817282 328142841284 9285.1251.02513252 6251.9252.8253 8257 6256 3256 2254 0252.7252.9256.4258.225712600262 3263.4260.6259 7259 9257 8257 6258.2257.9265.6279 7279.3263.1258.9262.7256 9253 5253 8260.0273.9280.6282.5263.3266.6259.9254.7241.0239.2227.8232.0235.6247.2248.4247.92481247.4249.8251.3255.0254 2254 4252 0249.9249.0252.1254.0254.5257.3260.3262.0260.2259.4260.6258.0257.4257.1262.4265.5268 7272,1273.3274.1274.7274.6274 72791280.0280.9283.0282.4281.9281.1281.0283.4286.7287.9286.6290.8291.9292.0265.1268.5272 5276.1277.0277.7277.9277.7277 92816282.4283.2285.2284.9284.0282.3281.8284.8288.8290.2289.1293.3294.6294.3214.9215.1214 0216.6218.1218.2218.1218.3215 8224 5224.7225.4226.2224.0223.9224.1225.0225.9226.7227.5223.2231.1230.8231.5302.7308.4316 0320.4321.0322.0322.5322.1324 2324 3325.4326.3329.3330.3328.8325.7324.3328.7335.3337.2338.4339.7342.4341.4254.6258 1260.8262.5263.8265.4265.8265 32715273.0274.1276.2275.0275.8277.2278.1279.2280.2280.7279.5283.8284.0285.1262.5265.0268.2270.6271.5272.3273.5273.0273.12751275.2275.8278.3278.6nil 277.3217.1280.1282.1282.8282.0284.2285.2285.1See next page for continuation of table.227
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CONTENTSPageECONOMIC REPORT OF THE
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
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Monetary policy will play a critica
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Interest Rates and the U.S. Trade D
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THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
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CONTENTSPageCHAPTER 1. FROM RECESSI
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PageConclusions 122CHAPTER 6. REVIE
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CHAPTER 1From Recession to Recovery
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slowed somewhat in the 1970s regard
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nal GNP growth is reflected in a sl
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inflation. More specifically, the A
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inflation rate, or with a 12 percen
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1988, an increase of about one-four
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CHAPTER 2The Dual Problems of Struc
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frequently associated with poor hea
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Chart 2-2Distribution of Unemployme
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Chart 2-4Distribution of Unemployme
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These findings suggest several conc
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Wage RigidityA number of studies sh
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that these measures may have caused
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Most young people find jobs or leav
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to employers who hire youths. Tax c
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defined broadly to include individu
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ship between incomplete experience
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CHAPTER 3The United States in the W
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with 2.6 percent in the other Organ
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TABLE 3-1 .—Structure ofthe U.S.
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TABLE 3-2.—Trade balances by comm
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concentrate on doing what it does r
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the United States will depress pric
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Chart 3-3Real Exchange Rates Of Maj
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AN UNDERVALUED YEN?The explanations
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arily reduced the international com
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nancial markets. These transactions
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TABLE 3-6.—Economic performance b
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were undoubtedly a highly favorable
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of lenders that some debtors will n
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CHAPTER 4Increasing Capital Formati
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ate of net investment was required,
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able share in Japan and 56 percent
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During the 1970s, productivity grow
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MEASURING NATIONAL SAVINGDomestic s
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TAX RULES AND PERSONAL SAVINGMany e
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on consumption taxation might also
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Nevertheless, a number of economic
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tion permitted businesses to deprec
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A final problem under current tax l
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fleeted efforts to deal with proble
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egulation was probably not applicab
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Aeronautics Board, for example, the
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system resulted. Price controls, wh
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NGPA, both controlled and decontrol
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Price and allocation controls only
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nications industries through the re
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Several major pieces of legislation
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tempt to set cartel rates would be
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computer information and advertisin
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of computer technology to the payme
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trend by widening the sources and u
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changes. That is, members can arbit
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ceived to be a consequence of exces
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lowest point in the post-World War
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ing. Partly in response to the drop
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Chart 6-3Ratio of Consumer Installm
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Chart 6-4RATIO1.85Real Inventory/Sa
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percent increase in real defense pu
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8.8 percent in 1981. These declines
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housing. Borrowing by the nonfinanc
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orous competitor for credit as usur
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1982 their share had risen to over
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TABLE 6-9.—Economic outlook for 1
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A critical element in achieving hea
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Report to the President on the Acti
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ety of interagency and internationa
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ence J. Kotlikoff (Yale University)
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CONTENTSNATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDIT
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B-70. Mortgage debt outstanding by
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NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
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TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
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19291933193919401941194219431944194
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TABLE B-5.—Changes in GNP and GNP
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Page 181 and 182: TABLE B-ll.—Gross national produc
Page 183 and 184: TABLE B-13.—Output, costs, and pr
Page 185 and 186: TABLE B-14.—Personal consumption
Page 187 and 188: TABLE B-16.—Gross and net private
Page 189 and 190: TABLE B-18.—Inventories and final
Page 191 and 192: TABLE B-20.—Relation of national
Page 193 and 194: TABLE B-21.—National income by ty
Page 195 and 196: TABLE B-22.—Sources of personal i
Page 197 and 198: TABLE B-24.—Total and per capita
Page 199 and 200: Year or quarterTotalTotalTABLE B-26
Page 201 and 202: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
Page 203 and 204: TABLE B-29.—Noninstitutional popu
Page 205 and 206: TABLE B-31.—Selected employment a
Page 207 and 208: TABLE B-33.—Civilian unemployment
Page 209 and 210: TABLE B-35.—Unemployment by reaso
Page 211 and 212: TABLE B-37.— Wage and salary work
Page 213 and 214: TABLE B-39.—Average weekly earnin
Page 215 and 216: TABLE B-41.—Changes in productivi
Page 217 and 218: TABLE B-43-—Industrial production
Page 219 and 220: TABLE B-45.—Capacity utilization
Page 221 and 222: TABLE B-46.—New construction acti
Page 223 and 224: TABLE B-48.—Nonfarm business expe
Page 225 and 226: TABLE B-50.—Manufacturers' shipme
Page 227 and 228: Year or monthAllitemsPRICESTABLE B-
Page 229 and 230: TABLE B-53.—Consumer price indexe
Page 231: TABLE B-55.—Changes in consumer p
Page 235 and 236: TABLE B-58.—Producer price indexe
Page 237 and 238: TABLE B-59.—Producer price indexe
Page 239 and 240: MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AND FINANCETAB
Page 241 and 242: TABLE B-63.—Commercial bank loans
Page 243 and 244: TABLE B-64.—Total funds raised in
Page 245 and 246: TABLE B-66.—Aggregate reserves of
Page 247 and 248: TABLE B-67 .—Bond yields and inte
Page 249 and 250: TABLE B-69.—Consumer installment
Page 251 and 252: TABLE B-71-—Mortgage debt outstan
Page 253 and 254: TABLE B-72.—Federal budget receip
Page 255 and 256: TABLE B-74.—Relation of Federal G
Page 257 and 258: TABLE B-76.—Federal Government re
Page 259 and 260: TABLE B-78.—State and local gover
Page 261 and 262: TABLE B-80.—Estimated ownership o
Page 263 and 264: CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCETABLE
Page 265 and 266: Year or quarterTABLE B-84.—Corpor
Page 267 and 268: TABLE B-86.—Relation of profits a
Page 269 and 270: TABLE B-88.—Determinants of busin
Page 271 and 272: TABLE B-9Q.~Current assets and liab
Page 273 and 274: TABLE B-92.—Common stock prices a
Page 275 and 276: AGRICULTURETABLE B-94.—Farm incom
Page 277 and 278: TABLE B-96.—Farm input use, selec
Page 279 and 280: TABLE B-98.—U.S. exports and impo
Page 281 and 282: INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-100
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TABLE B-101.—U.S. international t
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TABLE B-103.—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-105.—International invest
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TABLE B-107.— World trade balance
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TABLE B-109.—Growth rates in real
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TABLE B-lll.—Unemployment rate, a
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