Economic Report of the President

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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS,Washington, D.C., December 31, 1982.MR. PRESIDENT:The Council of Economic Advisers submits this report on its activitiesduring the calendar year 1982 in accordance with the requirementsof the Congress, as set forth in section 10(d) of the EmploymentAct of 1946 as amended by the Full Employment and BalancedGrowth Act of 1978.Sincerely,MARTIN FELDSTEIN, ChairmanWILLIAM A. NISKANENWILLIAM POOLE149
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CONTENTSPageECONOMIC REPORT OF THE
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
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Monetary policy will play a critica
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Interest Rates and the U.S. Trade D
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THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
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CONTENTSPageCHAPTER 1. FROM RECESSI
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PageConclusions 122CHAPTER 6. REVIE
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CHAPTER 1From Recession to Recovery
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slowed somewhat in the 1970s regard
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nal GNP growth is reflected in a sl
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inflation. More specifically, the A
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inflation rate, or with a 12 percen
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1988, an increase of about one-four
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CHAPTER 2The Dual Problems of Struc
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frequently associated with poor hea
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Chart 2-2Distribution of Unemployme
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Chart 2-4Distribution of Unemployme
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These findings suggest several conc
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Wage RigidityA number of studies sh
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that these measures may have caused
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Most young people find jobs or leav
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to employers who hire youths. Tax c
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defined broadly to include individu
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ship between incomplete experience
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CHAPTER 3The United States in the W
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with 2.6 percent in the other Organ
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TABLE 3-1 .—Structure ofthe U.S.
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TABLE 3-2.—Trade balances by comm
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concentrate on doing what it does r
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the United States will depress pric
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Chart 3-3Real Exchange Rates Of Maj
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AN UNDERVALUED YEN?The explanations
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arily reduced the international com
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nancial markets. These transactions
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TABLE 3-6.—Economic performance b
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were undoubtedly a highly favorable
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of lenders that some debtors will n
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CHAPTER 4Increasing Capital Formati
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ate of net investment was required,
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able share in Japan and 56 percent
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During the 1970s, productivity grow
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MEASURING NATIONAL SAVINGDomestic s
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TAX RULES AND PERSONAL SAVINGMany e
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on consumption taxation might also
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Nevertheless, a number of economic
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tion permitted businesses to deprec
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A final problem under current tax l
Page 103 and 104: fleeted efforts to deal with proble
Page 105 and 106: egulation was probably not applicab
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Page 109 and 110: system resulted. Price controls, wh
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Page 113 and 114: Price and allocation controls only
Page 115 and 116: nications industries through the re
Page 117 and 118: Several major pieces of legislation
Page 119 and 120: tempt to set cartel rates would be
Page 121 and 122: computer information and advertisin
Page 123 and 124: of computer technology to the payme
Page 125 and 126: trend by widening the sources and u
Page 127 and 128: changes. That is, members can arbit
Page 129 and 130: ceived to be a consequence of exces
Page 131 and 132: lowest point in the post-World War
Page 133 and 134: ing. Partly in response to the drop
Page 135 and 136: Chart 6-3Ratio of Consumer Installm
Page 137 and 138: Chart 6-4RATIO1.85Real Inventory/Sa
Page 139 and 140: percent increase in real defense pu
Page 141 and 142: 8.8 percent in 1981. These declines
Page 143 and 144: housing. Borrowing by the nonfinanc
Page 145 and 146: orous competitor for credit as usur
Page 147 and 148: 1982 their share had risen to over
Page 149 and 150: TABLE 6-9.—Economic outlook for 1
Page 151: A critical element in achieving hea
Page 156 and 157: Council Members and their dates of
Page 158 and 159: The Chairman actively participated
Page 160 and 161: Junior Staff EconomistsChristopher
Page 163: Appendix BSTATISTICAL TABLES RELATI
Page 166 and 167: B-S3. Civilian unemployment rate by
Page 168 and 169: B-102. U.S. merchandise exports and
Page 170 and 171: TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
Page 172 and 173: TABLE B-3.—Implicit price deflato
Page 174 and 175: TABLE B-4.—Fixed-weighted price i
Page 180 and 181: TABLE B-10.—Gross national produc
Page 182 and 183: TABLE B-12.—Gross domestic produc
Page 184 and 185: TABLE B-14.—Personal consumption
Page 186 and 187: TABLE B-15.—Gross private domesti
Page 188 and 189: TABLE B-17.—Inventories and final
Page 190 and 191: TABLE B-19.—Relation of gross nat
Page 192 and 193: TABLE B-21.—National income by ty
Page 194 and 195: TABLE B-22.~$ourees of personal inc
Page 196 and 197: TABLE B-23.—Disposition of person
Page 198 and 199: TABLE B-25.—Gross saving and inve
Page 200 and 201: TABLE B-27.—Number and median inc
Page 202 and 203: TABLE B-29-—Noninstitutional popu
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TABLE B-30.—Civilian employment a
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TABLE B-32.—Civilian labor force
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TABLE B-34.—Unemployment by durat
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TABLB B-36.—Unemployment insuranc
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TABLE B-38.—Average weekly hours
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TABLE B-40.—Productivity and rela
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PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYTAB
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TABLE B-44.—Industrial production
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TABLE B-46.—Neiv construction act
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TABLE B-47.—New bousing units sta
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TABLE B-49.—Sales and inventories
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TABLE B-51.—Manufacturers' new an
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TABLE B-53.—Consumer price indexe
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TABLE B-54.—Consumer price indexe
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19581959196019611962196319641965196
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TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexe
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TABLE B-59.—Producer price indexe
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Year or month1950195119521953195419
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TABLE B-62,—Components of money s
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TABLE B-64,—Total funds raised in
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TABLE B-65.—Federal Reserve Bank
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TABLE B-67.—Bond yields and inter
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TABLE B-68.—Consumer credit outst
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TABLE B-70.—Mortgage debt outstan
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GOVERNMENT FINANCETABLE B-72.—Fed
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TABLE B-73.—Federal budget receip
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TABLE B-75.—Government receipts a
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TABLE B-77.—State and local gover
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TABLE B-79.—Interest-bearing publ
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TABLE B-81.—Maturity distribution
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TABLE B-83.—Corporate profits by
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TABLE B-85.—Sates, profits, and s
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TABLE B-87.—Relation of profits a
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TABLE B-89.—Sources and uses of f
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TABLE B-91.—State and municipal a
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TABLE B-93.—Business formation an
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TABLE B-95.—Farm output and produ
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Year or month1940194119421943194419
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TABLE B-99.—Balance sheet of the
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TABLE B-101.—£7.5. international
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TABLE B-102,—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-104.—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-106.— World trade: Export
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TABLE B-108.—International reserv
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TABLE B-110.—Industrial productio
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