Economic Report of the President

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TABLE B-101.—£7.5. international transactions, 1946-82[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits ( + )• debits ( }]Year orquarterMerchandise 12Exports Imports NetInvestment income 3Receipts Payments NetNetmilitarytransactionsNettravelandtransportationreceiptsOtherservices,net aBalanceon goodsandservices * ARemittances,pensions,and otherunilateraltransfers'Balanceoncurrentaccountl *1946..1947..1948..1949..1950..1951..1952..1953..1954..1955..1956..1957..1958..1959..I960..1961..1962..1963..1964..1965..1966..1967..1968..1969..1970..1971..1972..1973..1974..1975,.1976..1977..1978..1979..11,76416,09713,26512,21310,20314,24313,44912,41212,92914,42417,55619,56216,41416,45819,65020,10820,78122,27225,50126,46129,31030,66633,62636,41442,46943,31949,38171,41098,306107,088114,745120,816142,054184,473^5,067^5,973-7,557-6,874-9,081-11,176-10,838-10,975-10,353-11,527= 12,803-13,291= 12,952-15,310= 14,758= 14,537= 16,260-17,048-18,700=21,510=25,493-26,866-32,991-35,807- 39,866=45,579-55,797-70,499-103,649-98,041=-124,051= 151,689475,813-211.8196,69710,1245,7085,3391,1223,0672,61114372,5762,8974,7536,2713,4621,1484,8925,5714,5215,2246,8014,9513,8173,8006356072,603-2,260-6,416911-5,3439,047-9,306-30,873-33,759-27,3467721,1021,9211,8312,0682,6332,7512,7362,9293,4063,8374,1803,7904,1324,6164,9995,6186,1576,8247,4377,5288,0209,36810,91211,74712,70714,76421,80827,58725,35129,28632,17942,24564,129-212-245-437=476-559-583-555-624-582-676-735-796-825-1,061-1,237-1,245-1,324-1,561-1,784-2,088-2,481-2,747-3,378-4,869-5,516-5,436-6,572-9,655-12,084-12,564-13,311-14,217-21,680-32,9145608571,4841,3551,5092,0502,1962,1122,3472,7303,1023,3842,9653,0713,3793,7544,2944,5965,0405,3495,0475,2735,9906,0436,2317,2718,19212,15315,50312,78715,97517,96220,56531,215-493-455^799-621-576-1,270-2,054-2,423-2,460-2,701-2,788-2,841-3,135=-2,805-2,752-2,596-2,449-2,304-2,133-2,122-2,935-3,226-3,143=3,328-3,354-2,893-3,420-2,070-1,653-7465591,528621-2,035733946374230-12029883-238-269-297-361-189-633-821-964-978-1,152-1,309-1,146-1,280-1,331-1,750-1,548-1,763-2,038-2,345-3,063-3,158-3,184-2,792-2,558-3,293-3,125-2,4293101451752082422543093073052994474824865735795948099601,0411,3871,3651,6121,6301,8332,1802,4952,7663,1843,9864,5984,7115,2245,9555,6907,80711,6176,9426,5112,1774,3993,1451,1952,4992,9285,1537,1073,1451,1665,1326,3466,0257,1679,6048,2855,9635,7083,5633,3935,6252,269= 1,94111,0219,30922,8939,382-9,451-9,7435,095=2,922=2,625-4,525= 5,638=4,017= 3,515-2,531-2,481-2,280-2,498-2,423-2,345=2,361=2,448-2,308-2,524-2,638=2,754-2,781-2,854-2,932-3,125-2,952-2,994-3,294-3,701-3,854-3,8818 -7,186=4,613-4,998-4,617-5,030-5,5614,8858,9922,417873-1,840884614= 1,2862194302,7304,762784-1,2822,8243,8223,3874,4146,8235,4323,0312,5836113992,331-1,433-5,7957,1402,12418,2804,384-14,068-14,7734661980....1981....1980:IIV1981:IIV1982:II111*..224,237236,25454,75255,84355,78657,85660,68360,28457,69457,59355,78055,17452,480-249,575264,143-64,431-62,363-59,735=63,046-64,995-66,831-65,539-66,778-61,653- 60,869=64,938-25,338-27,889-9,679-6,520-3,949-5,190-4,312-6,547=7,845-9,185-5,873-5,695-12,45872,68685,94519,94416,01617,84818,87720,52821,64222,04821,72720,89022,56221,880-42,776-52,908= 10,505-10,268-10,485-11,519-12,405-13,441-13,865-13,198-14,029-14,874-14,46229,91033,0379,4395,7487,3637,3588,1238,2018,1838,5296,8617,6887,418-2,471-1,541•=931-514-286-742=-48758761-528167247527-940-231-436= 216-114-174-495-139200203-66-=319-2017,1447,7021,6441,8081,8101,8791.8381,9811,9601,9242,0342,0502.1408,30311,079373064,8243,1314,6672,9092,5599433,1233,9712,574=6,783-6,608= 1,837-1,306-1,444-2,195-1,422-1,510-1,808= 1,870-2,048-1,740-1,6531,5204,471-1,800-1,0003,3809363,2451,399751-9271,0752,231-4,2271 Excludes military.8 Adjusted from Census data for differences in valuation, coverage, and timing.o Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded frominvestment income and included in other services, net.4 In concept balance on goods and services is equal to net exports and imports in the national income and product accounts (andthe sum of balance on current account and allocations of special drawing rights is equal to net foreign investment in the accounts),although the series differ because of different handling of certain items (gold, extraordinary military shipments, etc.), revisions, etc.6 Includes extraordinary U.S. Government transactions with India.See next page for continuation of table.276
TABLE B-101.—U.S. international transactions, 1946-82—Continued[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]Year orquarterTotalU.S. assets abroad, net[increase/capital outflow 43-5,126-5,137-1,438-1,143-1,390-1,1545,144-5,2354,623-5,9868,0505,336-6,347-7,386-7,833-8,20610,22912,940-12,92520,388-33,643-35,38044,498-30,717-57,20259,469-72,74698,982-8,21024,32117,136-23,0792,2942,7051,9113,2173,6437423,6617,3799,92812,7026,35922,97021,46118,38834,24115,67036,51851,31964,03638,46054,48477,9217,8658,61612,64725,3561,4737651,2701,9861,660134-6723,451-774-1,3016,90826,87910,4756,02610,5467,02717,69336,81633,678-13,69715,4424,7857,4217,6447,5417,6788211,9396411,2311,9836074,3333,92810,70314,002-550-3,90910,98612,36223,6968,64318,82614,50330,35852,15739,04273,13615,2869725,10617,6778677177101,1*39"1,1521,0931,152-1019-989-1,124-360-907-458629-205438-1,516-219-9,779-1,879-2,654-1,6205,75310,367-2,46511,86625,21228,87025,8095,70017,3463,6082,219-643795-2,7542,6051981:1IIIllIV1982:1II|||p-22,796-21,566-17,257-47,677-31,201-37,790-26,364-4,529-905262-1,089-1,132-794-1,375-1,518-1,257-987-904-1,547-2,41816,892-19,143-15,996-46,952-29,20835,111-23,1528,47013,46416,88039,10725,08029,61916,0545,361-2,861-5,8358,119-3,1221,9982,1023,10916,32422,71530,98828,20227,62113,9521.0939,9886,703-3749,4975,0455,94014,537-=829503-2,1442,474-899574-1,973e Consists of gold, special drawing rights, convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the International Monetary Fund(ItVlrJ.Note.—Quarterly data for U.S. official reserve assets and foreign assets in the United States are not seasonally adjusted.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.277
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CONTENTSPageECONOMIC REPORT OF THE
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
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Monetary policy will play a critica
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Interest Rates and the U.S. Trade D
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THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
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CONTENTSPageCHAPTER 1. FROM RECESSI
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PageConclusions 122CHAPTER 6. REVIE
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CHAPTER 1From Recession to Recovery
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slowed somewhat in the 1970s regard
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nal GNP growth is reflected in a sl
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inflation. More specifically, the A
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inflation rate, or with a 12 percen
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1988, an increase of about one-four
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CHAPTER 2The Dual Problems of Struc
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frequently associated with poor hea
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Chart 2-2Distribution of Unemployme
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Chart 2-4Distribution of Unemployme
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These findings suggest several conc
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Wage RigidityA number of studies sh
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that these measures may have caused
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Most young people find jobs or leav
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to employers who hire youths. Tax c
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defined broadly to include individu
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ship between incomplete experience
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CHAPTER 3The United States in the W
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with 2.6 percent in the other Organ
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TABLE 3-1 .—Structure ofthe U.S.
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TABLE 3-2.—Trade balances by comm
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concentrate on doing what it does r
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the United States will depress pric
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Chart 3-3Real Exchange Rates Of Maj
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AN UNDERVALUED YEN?The explanations
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arily reduced the international com
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nancial markets. These transactions
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TABLE 3-6.—Economic performance b
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were undoubtedly a highly favorable
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of lenders that some debtors will n
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CHAPTER 4Increasing Capital Formati
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ate of net investment was required,
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able share in Japan and 56 percent
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During the 1970s, productivity grow
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MEASURING NATIONAL SAVINGDomestic s
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TAX RULES AND PERSONAL SAVINGMany e
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on consumption taxation might also
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Nevertheless, a number of economic
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tion permitted businesses to deprec
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A final problem under current tax l
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fleeted efforts to deal with proble
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egulation was probably not applicab
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Aeronautics Board, for example, the
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system resulted. Price controls, wh
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NGPA, both controlled and decontrol
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Price and allocation controls only
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nications industries through the re
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Several major pieces of legislation
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tempt to set cartel rates would be
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computer information and advertisin
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of computer technology to the payme
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trend by widening the sources and u
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changes. That is, members can arbit
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ceived to be a consequence of exces
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lowest point in the post-World War
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ing. Partly in response to the drop
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Chart 6-3Ratio of Consumer Installm
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Chart 6-4RATIO1.85Real Inventory/Sa
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percent increase in real defense pu
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8.8 percent in 1981. These declines
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housing. Borrowing by the nonfinanc
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orous competitor for credit as usur
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1982 their share had risen to over
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TABLE 6-9.—Economic outlook for 1
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A critical element in achieving hea
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Report to the President on the Acti
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ety of interagency and internationa
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ence J. Kotlikoff (Yale University)
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CONTENTSNATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDIT
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B-70. Mortgage debt outstanding by
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NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
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TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
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19291933193919401941194219431944194
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TABLE B-5.—Changes in GNP and GNP
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TABLE B-ll.—Gross national produc
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TABLE B-13.—Output, costs, and pr
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TABLE B-14.—Personal consumption
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TABLE B-16.—Gross and net private
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TABLE B-18.—Inventories and final
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TABLE B-20.—Relation of national
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TABLE B-21.—National income by ty
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TABLE B-22.—Sources of personal i
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TABLE B-24.—Total and per capita
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Year or quarterTotalTotalTABLE B-26
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POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
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TABLE B-29.—Noninstitutional popu
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TABLE B-31.—Selected employment a
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TABLE B-33.—Civilian unemployment
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TABLE B-35.—Unemployment by reaso
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TABLE B-37.— Wage and salary work
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TABLE B-39.—Average weekly earnin
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TABLE B-41.—Changes in productivi
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TABLE B-43-—Industrial production
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TABLE B-45.—Capacity utilization
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TABLE B-46.—New construction acti
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TABLE B-48.—Nonfarm business expe
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TABLE B-50.—Manufacturers' shipme
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Year or monthAllitemsPRICESTABLE B-
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TABLE B-53.—Consumer price indexe
Page 231 and 232: TABLE B-55.—Changes in consumer p
Page 233 and 234: TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexe
Page 239 and 240: MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AND FINANCETAB
Page 241 and 242: TABLE B-63.—Commercial bank loans
Page 243 and 244: TABLE B-64.—Total funds raised in
Page 245 and 246: TABLE B-66.—Aggregate reserves of
Page 247 and 248: TABLE B-67 .—Bond yields and inte
Page 249 and 250: TABLE B-69.—Consumer installment
Page 251 and 252: TABLE B-71-—Mortgage debt outstan
Page 253 and 254: TABLE B-72.—Federal budget receip
Page 255 and 256: TABLE B-74.—Relation of Federal G
Page 257 and 258: TABLE B-76.—Federal Government re
Page 259 and 260: TABLE B-78.—State and local gover
Page 261 and 262: TABLE B-80.—Estimated ownership o
Page 263 and 264: CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCETABLE
Page 265 and 266: Year or quarterTABLE B-84.—Corpor
Page 267 and 268: TABLE B-86.—Relation of profits a
Page 269 and 270: TABLE B-88.—Determinants of busin
Page 271 and 272: TABLE B-9Q.~Current assets and liab
Page 273 and 274: TABLE B-92.—Common stock prices a
Page 275 and 276: AGRICULTURETABLE B-94.—Farm incom
Page 277 and 278: TABLE B-96.—Farm input use, selec
Page 279 and 280: TABLE B-98.—U.S. exports and impo
Page 281: INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-100
Page 285 and 286: TABLE B-103.—U.S. merchandise exp
Page 287 and 288: TABLE B-105.—International invest
Page 289 and 290: TABLE B-107.— World trade balance
Page 291 and 292: TABLE B-109.—Growth rates in real
Page 293: TABLE B-lll.—Unemployment rate, a
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