Economic Report of the President

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TABLE B-59.—Producer price indexes for major commodity groups, 1940-82[1967 = 100]Farm products and processedfoods and feedsIndustrial commoditiesYear or monthTotalFarmproductsProcessedfoods andfeedsTotalTextileproductsandapparelHides,skins,leather,andrelatedproductsFuels andrelatedproducts,andpower»Chemicalsand alliedproducts *194019411942194319441945194619471948194919501951 ...19521953195419551956195719581959 ,I96019611962196319641965196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977 . .19781979198019811982 •1981:Jan ,.FebMar...AprMayJuneJulyAugOctNovDec1982: *JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAug , ,SeptOctNovDec94.3101.589.693.9106 9102.796 095.791290.693.798.193.593.793.794.793.893.297.1103 5100.0102 4108.01117113.9122.4159.1177.4184.2183.1188 8206.6229.8244.7251.5248.9257.9255.1253 5253.8252.9254.3256.8254 2250 3246.0242.5241.0246.0248.4247.5251.6255 8255.3252.4249.6247.5243.9244.0244.841.450.364.875.075.578.59091094117.5101.6106.7124 2117.2106 2104.798 296.999 5103.997.597.296.398 096.094.698.7105 9100.0102 5109.11110112.9125.0176.3187 7186.7191.0192 5212.5241.4249.4254 9242.3264.5262.4260 7263.3259.6260.7263 3257 92511243.1237.4234.6242.2247.1244.72506256 5252.7246.6240.8234.4229.1230.6232.582 988.780.683.492 791.687 488.985.084.987 491.889.489.591.091.992.592 395.51012100.0102 2107.31121114 5120.8148.11709182.6178.01861202 6222.5241.2248 7251.5253.3250.2248 5247.6248.2249.9252 22512248 9246.6244 3243.6247.1248.1248.125112544255.8254.6253.5253.6251.0250 4250.644.047 350.751.552.353.058070 876.975.378.086184.184 885.086 990.893 393.695.395.394.894.894.795296.498 5100.0102 5106.011001141117.9125.9153 8171.5182.41951209.4236.5274.83041312.3291.5295.7299 6303.5304.7305.1306 2307 2307 4309.0309 3310.0311.8311.63110309 9309 6310.6312.8313.2312.9314.4315.1315.0103.6108.198.9102.7114.6103.4100.898.698.798.798.897,098.499.597.798.698.599.299.8100.1100.0103.7106.0107.1109.0113.6123.8139.1137.9148.2154.0159.8168.7183.5199.7204.3193.1193.9195.2197.6199.2200.1201.3202.4202.9204.0203.6203.4205.0205.62054205.4205.0204.1204.2203.8202.6203.5202.445.248.452.852.752.252.961183.384.279.986.399.180.181.377.677.381.982.082.994.290.891.792.790.090.394.3103.4100.0103.2108.9110.3114.1131.3143.1145.1148.5167.8179.3200.0252.4248.9260.9263.0258.2257.7261.2263.5263.7261.6261.1261.3261.7260.0259.8260.7261.8261.6260.6263.4263.2261.8263.1262.0264.8264.7264.3265.251.454.656.257.859.560.164 476.990.586.287.190.390.192.691.391.294.099.195.395.396.197.296.796.393.795.597.8100.098.9100.9106 2115.2118.6134.3208.3245.1265.6302.2322.5408.1574,0694.5693.4634.6667.5696.5707.2709.0707.6704.9704.3703.5698.1698.1702.5705.1697.8689.7670.6662.2677.3701.1705.6701.8699.6707.3702.652.457.063.364.164.865.270 593.795.987.688.9101796.597 798.998.599.1101.2102.0101.6101.8100.799.197.998.399.099.4100.099.899.9102 2104.1104.2110.0146.8181.3187.2192.8198.8222,3260.3287.6292.4274.3277.6280.4286.0288.6290.5291.3293 3293 3292.4292.0291.8292.9293.6294.6294.3295.0293.3291.6291.6291.4290.4290.5289.3See next page for continuation of table.230
TABLE B-59.—Producer price indexes for major commodity groups,1940-82—ContinuedYear or monthRubberandplasticproductsLumberandwoodproducts[1967 = 100]Pulp,paper,andalliedproductsIndustrial commodities—ContinuedMetalsandmetalproductsMachineryandequipmentFurnitureandhouseholddurablesNonmetallicmineralproductsTransportationequipment:Motorvehiclesandequipment3Miscellaneousproducts19401941194219431944194519461947194819491950195119521953195419551956195719581959I9601961196219631964 . . .1965196619671968...19691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982 21981:JanFebMarAprIVfayJun'e :JulyAiigSeotOcitNovDec1982: 2JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugOctNovDec57 161571673.611170.570 870.572 870.585.9105.495.589.190.4102.4103 8103.4103 3102.9103199.296 396.895 595.997 8100.01034105.3108 31091109.31124136.2150 2159.2167 6174 8194.3217 4232 6241.6224.8226.4228 4230 82318233.423212341235 7237 3238.0238 3237 3239.3240.824112421242.5242.0242.6243 3243 0242 6243.027.432 735.637.740.641.247.273.484.077.789.397.294.494.392.697.198.593.592.498.895.391.091.693.595.495.9100.2100.0113.3125.3113.6127 3144.3177.2183.6176.9205.6236.3276 0300.4288.9292.8284.7296.5294.7294.4299.4298 4298.1296.5294.5289.3284.3282.1285.4285.5285.2285.3286.5284.6289.0288.6284.2283.0279.6279.9284.872.575.772.474.388.085.785.585.587.893.695.496.497.398.195.296 395.695 496.298.8100.0101.1104.0108.21101113.41221151.7170.4179.4186.4195 6219.0249 2273.8288.6264.4267.2269.027142721272.9274.9275.9277 8279 2280.4281.0285 5286.3287.4288.5289 6289.5289.1289.3289.2289.2289.6289.537 838 539.139.039 039.644.354.962.563.066.373.873.976.376.982.189 291.090.492.392 491.991291.393 896.498 8100.0102.6108.51166118 7123.5132 8171.9185 6195.9209.02271259.3286.4300 4301.8294.0294.0296.4298 82991298.4302.0304.1304 9305 3304.2303.3304 7304.2302.9303.1302 8299.3299.5299.2301.8302.13010300.941.442142.842.442.142.246.453.758.261.063.170.570.672.273.475.781.887.689.491.392.091.992.092.292.893.996.8100.0103.2106.5111.4115 5117.9121.7139.4161.4171.0181.7196.1213.9239.8263.3278.7253.3255.3257.5259.6260.7262.1264.8266.2268.1269.3270.4272.0274.1275.4276.2277.6278.2278.6279.6279.9280.3280.9281.3281.853 857 261.861.463163.267.177.081.682.984.791.890.191.992.993.395 898.399.199.399.098.497 797.097 496.998.0100.0102.8104.9107.5110 0111.4115.2127.9139.7145.6151.51604171.3187.7198.5206.8194.0195.2195.8196.4197 4197.3199.5199.6201.0201.3202.1202.9203.5204.6205.5206.0206.5207.0206.8208.1207.7208.4208.3208.649150 252 352.453 555.759 366.371673.575.480.180.183.385.187.591394.895.897.097 297.697 697.197 397.598 4100.0103.7107.7112.9122 4126.1130.2153.2174.0186.3200.5222 8248.6283.0309.5320.2296.6297.9300.9310.8312.0313.6314.3314.1313.2313.3313.7313.5315.6319.0319.9320.2321.2320.9321.1320.5320.2321.2321.5320.940.443 247.247.247 548.356.064.170.875.775.379.484.083.683.886.391295.198.1100.398.898.698.697.898.398.598.6100.0102.8104.8108.7114.9118.0119.2129.2144.6153.8163.7176.0190.5208.8237.6251.3229.0230.9229.5233.9236.0236.7237.4238.4232.8247.8248.9249.5250.8246.8246.8247.2249.2251.1252.0252.8245.0258.1257.5257.973.576 578.079.283 983.485 686.486 587 690.292 092.293 093.393 794.595 295.997 7100.0102.2105.2109.9112 9114.6119.7133.1147.7153.7164.3184.3208.7258.8265.7276.6264.3264.9264.0266.0266.9266.3263.2262.6267.0268.5267.5267.6268.3273.5272.7273.2272.2271.5273.4272.0280.3285.9285.7290.31 Prices for some items in this grouping are lagged and refer to 1 month earlier than the index month.2 Data have been revised through August 1982 to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections by respondents. All data aresubject to revision 4 months after original publication.3 Index for total transportation equipment is not shown but is available beginning December 1968.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.231
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CONTENTSPageECONOMIC REPORT OF THE
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
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Monetary policy will play a critica
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Interest Rates and the U.S. Trade D
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THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
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CONTENTSPageCHAPTER 1. FROM RECESSI
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PageConclusions 122CHAPTER 6. REVIE
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CHAPTER 1From Recession to Recovery
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slowed somewhat in the 1970s regard
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nal GNP growth is reflected in a sl
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inflation. More specifically, the A
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inflation rate, or with a 12 percen
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1988, an increase of about one-four
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CHAPTER 2The Dual Problems of Struc
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frequently associated with poor hea
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Chart 2-2Distribution of Unemployme
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Chart 2-4Distribution of Unemployme
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These findings suggest several conc
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Wage RigidityA number of studies sh
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that these measures may have caused
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Most young people find jobs or leav
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to employers who hire youths. Tax c
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defined broadly to include individu
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ship between incomplete experience
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CHAPTER 3The United States in the W
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with 2.6 percent in the other Organ
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TABLE 3-1 .—Structure ofthe U.S.
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TABLE 3-2.—Trade balances by comm
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concentrate on doing what it does r
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the United States will depress pric
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Chart 3-3Real Exchange Rates Of Maj
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AN UNDERVALUED YEN?The explanations
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arily reduced the international com
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nancial markets. These transactions
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TABLE 3-6.—Economic performance b
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were undoubtedly a highly favorable
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of lenders that some debtors will n
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CHAPTER 4Increasing Capital Formati
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ate of net investment was required,
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able share in Japan and 56 percent
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During the 1970s, productivity grow
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MEASURING NATIONAL SAVINGDomestic s
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TAX RULES AND PERSONAL SAVINGMany e
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on consumption taxation might also
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Nevertheless, a number of economic
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tion permitted businesses to deprec
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A final problem under current tax l
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fleeted efforts to deal with proble
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egulation was probably not applicab
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Aeronautics Board, for example, the
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system resulted. Price controls, wh
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NGPA, both controlled and decontrol
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Price and allocation controls only
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nications industries through the re
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Several major pieces of legislation
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tempt to set cartel rates would be
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computer information and advertisin
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of computer technology to the payme
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trend by widening the sources and u
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changes. That is, members can arbit
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ceived to be a consequence of exces
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lowest point in the post-World War
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ing. Partly in response to the drop
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Chart 6-3Ratio of Consumer Installm
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Chart 6-4RATIO1.85Real Inventory/Sa
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percent increase in real defense pu
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8.8 percent in 1981. These declines
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housing. Borrowing by the nonfinanc
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orous competitor for credit as usur
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1982 their share had risen to over
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TABLE 6-9.—Economic outlook for 1
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A critical element in achieving hea
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Report to the President on the Acti
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ety of interagency and internationa
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ence J. Kotlikoff (Yale University)
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CONTENTSNATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDIT
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B-70. Mortgage debt outstanding by
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NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
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TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
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19291933193919401941194219431944194
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TABLE B-5.—Changes in GNP and GNP
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TABLE B-ll.—Gross national produc
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TABLE B-13.—Output, costs, and pr
Page 185 and 186: TABLE B-14.—Personal consumption
Page 187 and 188: TABLE B-16.—Gross and net private
Page 189 and 190: TABLE B-18.—Inventories and final
Page 191 and 192: TABLE B-20.—Relation of national
Page 193 and 194: TABLE B-21.—National income by ty
Page 195 and 196: TABLE B-22.—Sources of personal i
Page 197 and 198: TABLE B-24.—Total and per capita
Page 199 and 200: Year or quarterTotalTotalTABLE B-26
Page 201 and 202: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
Page 203 and 204: TABLE B-29.—Noninstitutional popu
Page 205 and 206: TABLE B-31.—Selected employment a
Page 207 and 208: TABLE B-33.—Civilian unemployment
Page 209 and 210: TABLE B-35.—Unemployment by reaso
Page 211 and 212: TABLE B-37.— Wage and salary work
Page 213 and 214: TABLE B-39.—Average weekly earnin
Page 215 and 216: TABLE B-41.—Changes in productivi
Page 217 and 218: TABLE B-43-—Industrial production
Page 219 and 220: TABLE B-45.—Capacity utilization
Page 221 and 222: TABLE B-46.—New construction acti
Page 223 and 224: TABLE B-48.—Nonfarm business expe
Page 225 and 226: TABLE B-50.—Manufacturers' shipme
Page 227 and 228: Year or monthAllitemsPRICESTABLE B-
Page 229 and 230: TABLE B-53.—Consumer price indexe
Page 231 and 232: TABLE B-55.—Changes in consumer p
Page 233 and 234: TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexe
Page 235: TABLE B-58.—Producer price indexe
Page 239 and 240: MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AND FINANCETAB
Page 241 and 242: TABLE B-63.—Commercial bank loans
Page 243 and 244: TABLE B-64.—Total funds raised in
Page 245 and 246: TABLE B-66.—Aggregate reserves of
Page 247 and 248: TABLE B-67 .—Bond yields and inte
Page 249 and 250: TABLE B-69.—Consumer installment
Page 251 and 252: TABLE B-71-—Mortgage debt outstan
Page 253 and 254: TABLE B-72.—Federal budget receip
Page 255 and 256: TABLE B-74.—Relation of Federal G
Page 257 and 258: TABLE B-76.—Federal Government re
Page 259 and 260: TABLE B-78.—State and local gover
Page 261 and 262: TABLE B-80.—Estimated ownership o
Page 263 and 264: CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCETABLE
Page 265 and 266: Year or quarterTABLE B-84.—Corpor
Page 267 and 268: TABLE B-86.—Relation of profits a
Page 269 and 270: TABLE B-88.—Determinants of busin
Page 271 and 272: TABLE B-9Q.~Current assets and liab
Page 273 and 274: TABLE B-92.—Common stock prices a
Page 275 and 276: AGRICULTURETABLE B-94.—Farm incom
Page 277 and 278: TABLE B-96.—Farm input use, selec
Page 279 and 280: TABLE B-98.—U.S. exports and impo
Page 281 and 282: INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-100
Page 283 and 284: TABLE B-101.—U.S. international t
Page 285 and 286: TABLE B-103.—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-105.—International invest
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TABLE B-107.— World trade balance
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TABLE B-109.—Growth rates in real
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TABLE B-lll.—Unemployment rate, a
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