Economic Report of the President

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TABLE B-4.—Fixed-weighted price indexes for gross national product, 1972 weights, 1959-82[Index numbers, 1972=100, except as noted; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]Year or quarterGrossnationalproductGross private domesticinvestment 1TotalFixed investmentExports andimports of goodsand services 1ExportsImportsGovernment purchases of goods and servicesTotalTotalFederalNationaldefensePersonalconsumptionexpendituresNonresidentialResidentialNondefenseStateandlocalPercentchangefromingperiod,grossnationalproductfixedweightedpriceindex*195919601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982"1980:IIIIIIV1981:IIllIV1982:|IllIV**69.870.871672.473.274.175 377579 883 187.391896 2100 0106 0115.9126.4133 7142.2153 3167.8184.4202 0214.6177 8182.1186 3191.3195.9199 9204,2208.4210 8213.0216.0218.873.174.174 875.576.377.278 280182 085088.792 796 6100 01061117.1126 3133 0141.21516166.3184.82021213.8178 2182.7187 0191.5196.6200 2203.9207.5209 9211.6215.4218.474.474.774 474.274.074.375 277 079 382587.391295 8100 0105 8117.9132.3140 215L8167 0185.4204.1220 9231.11971202.5207 5210.2215.0219 0223.2226.8229 2230.4232.0233.074.174.574 374.474.775.376 177 980 383 387.091696 3100 0104 0116 5132 91399148 5160 9177.2196.0213 5225.7188 7194.2199 2202.820712117215.6219.3222 0225.0227.4228.774.974.974 773.972.672.673 575 377 581087.890.694 9100.0109.2120.5131.2140 8158.0178.4200.8219.5235.0241.3213.2218.4223.0224.3229.9233 0237.5241.2242 7240.7240.7241.173.475.076.076.076.377.179 481883 385 588.593.197 0100.0112 6137.4151.8156 9164.0174.9197.2218.6239.3245.7210 4214.3221.2229.1235.4238 4241.1242.5245.6246.3245.2245.575.076.075 273.774.776.377 178 879 380.783.088.493.3100.0116.7161.5175.1178 7195.0210.1244.5303.7319.0315.52910300.6309.8314.6322.6323 4316.3314.03191313.6313.6315.356.958.359 561.362.864.466 269 272 476.481.387.994.0100.0106.9117.9129.2137.3147.0158.4173.2193.8212.2226.2186.6191.4195.1202.1206.0210 3213.6219.3222 4224.5227.2231.058.559.660 561.763.365.367169.671575.779.886.792.9100.0106.7117.0128.0135.4145.0155.4169.5192.7214.7230.1184.9189.5191.9203.9208.1212 2214.5223.92271228.4230.1234.9100.0106.9117.5127.9135.6145.5156.5171.7196.5219.7236.4188.2193.7196.1208.2211.6217 4219.6230.12334234.6236.3241.4100.01061115.6128.3135.0143.6152.6164.0182.8201.7214.0176.4178.7181.4192.7199.11988201.6207.92110212.6214.2218.255.857.458.961,062.563.965668.873176 982.388.794 8100.0107.0118.4130.0138.5148.4160.4175.7194.6210.6223.6187.7192.7197.2200.9204.62090212.9216.1219 2221.9225.2228.31 Separate deflators are not calculated for gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, and net exports ofgoods and services.* Quarterly changes are at annual rates.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.1.5111.21.11.2172930415.05.2484.0609.49.15.86.37.89.59.99.66.210.510.09.411.210.08.48.98.54.84.15.95.2168
TABLE B-5.—Changes in GNP and GNP price measures, 1929-82[Percent change from preceding period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]Gross national productPersonal consumption expenditures19291933193919401941194219431944194519461947194819491950195119521953195419551956195719581959I9601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979 .198019811982 *1980:|||IIIIV1981:IIIIIIV1982:||IIIIV PPeriodCurrentdollarsConstant(1972)dollars6.6 6.6-4.2 -2.27.0 7.810 0 7625.0 16 326 7 15 321.3 15.19.6 7.1.9 -1512 -14 711.1 -1.7113 41-.5109 8715.5 8352 375.4 38.0 1290 675.4 2153 181.3 -.48.5 6.03.8 223.6 2.67.7 585.6 4.06.9 5.38.4 6.094 605.8 2.79.2 468.1 2.85.2 -.28.6 34101 5711.8 588.1 68.0 -1210 9 54117 5512.8 5011.7 2889 411.6 1.94.1 -1.812 2 15_ 4 9611.4 1.615.3 4319 6 7953 15114 223.0 -5.31.0 -5168 217581.725Implicitpricedeflator0.0-2.1-.82.27.59.95.32.42.415.712.96.9-.92.16.6141.61.22.23.23.41.72.41.6.91.81.51.52.23.23.04.45.15.45.0425.88.89.3525.87.48.6939.46.010.51019.610.510.968908.84.34.65.04.3Chainpriceindex1.61.21.41.31.41.93.13.04.35.05.34.94.16.09.19.25.76.17.68.99.09.46.49.0969.711.09.38.2928.45.04.66.05.2Fixed*weightedpriceindex(1972weights)1.51.11.21.11.21.7293.04.15.05.24.8406.09.49.1586.37.895999.66.210 510 09.411.210 084898.54.84.15.95.2Currentdollars-5.74.66013.89712.28.810.520.312.58.01.9787.9485.82.7764.95.43.27.44.53.16.05.56.97.58.15.49.58.46.98.19610.29.49.911011.111.811.910.610.67.010.7915.616.113.04.41133.47.66.18.110.1Constant(1972)dollars-2.05.3465.9-1.02.92.86.211.11.62.12.3561.3253.81.86.52.92.11.05.42.62.14.53.85.55.65.12.95.33.72.23.75.84.2-.72.25.65.04.52.7.31.81.0-.7-8.75.45.74.4-2.72.9-3.32.52.5.65.0Implicitpricedeflator-3.8-.7137.410.89.05.84.18.310.75.8206.5231.9.91.01.93.32.21.91.91.01.51.61.41.82.92.44.04.54.64.33.75.710.17.65.15.87.09.010.38.65.911.510.59.69.88.37.38.27.05.03.57.54.9Chainpriceindex1.71.1111.41.21.52.72.53.84.54.64.3366.110.47.7536.07.39.310 79.16.012.61019.810.010.37.4807.25.23.67.15.6Fixedweightedpriceindex(1972weights)1.5.991.21.11.32.42.43.64.44.54.2356.110.47.8536.27.49.711.29.35.813.410 49.810.110.97.7767.14.83.27.35.7Note.—Changes are based on unrounded data and may differ slightly from changes computed from data shown elsewhere in thesetables.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.169
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CONTENTSPageECONOMIC REPORT OF THE
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
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Monetary policy will play a critica
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Interest Rates and the U.S. Trade D
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THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
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CONTENTSPageCHAPTER 1. FROM RECESSI
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PageConclusions 122CHAPTER 6. REVIE
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CHAPTER 1From Recession to Recovery
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slowed somewhat in the 1970s regard
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nal GNP growth is reflected in a sl
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inflation. More specifically, the A
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inflation rate, or with a 12 percen
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1988, an increase of about one-four
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CHAPTER 2The Dual Problems of Struc
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frequently associated with poor hea
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Chart 2-2Distribution of Unemployme
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Chart 2-4Distribution of Unemployme
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These findings suggest several conc
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Wage RigidityA number of studies sh
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that these measures may have caused
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Most young people find jobs or leav
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to employers who hire youths. Tax c
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defined broadly to include individu
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ship between incomplete experience
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CHAPTER 3The United States in the W
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with 2.6 percent in the other Organ
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TABLE 3-1 .—Structure ofthe U.S.
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TABLE 3-2.—Trade balances by comm
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concentrate on doing what it does r
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the United States will depress pric
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Chart 3-3Real Exchange Rates Of Maj
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AN UNDERVALUED YEN?The explanations
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arily reduced the international com
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nancial markets. These transactions
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TABLE 3-6.—Economic performance b
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were undoubtedly a highly favorable
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of lenders that some debtors will n
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CHAPTER 4Increasing Capital Formati
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ate of net investment was required,
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able share in Japan and 56 percent
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During the 1970s, productivity grow
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MEASURING NATIONAL SAVINGDomestic s
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TAX RULES AND PERSONAL SAVINGMany e
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on consumption taxation might also
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Nevertheless, a number of economic
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tion permitted businesses to deprec
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A final problem under current tax l
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fleeted efforts to deal with proble
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egulation was probably not applicab
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Aeronautics Board, for example, the
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system resulted. Price controls, wh
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NGPA, both controlled and decontrol
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Price and allocation controls only
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nications industries through the re
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Several major pieces of legislation
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tempt to set cartel rates would be
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computer information and advertisin
Page 123 and 124: of computer technology to the payme
Page 125 and 126: trend by widening the sources and u
Page 127 and 128: changes. That is, members can arbit
Page 129 and 130: ceived to be a consequence of exces
Page 131 and 132: lowest point in the post-World War
Page 133 and 134: ing. Partly in response to the drop
Page 135 and 136: Chart 6-3Ratio of Consumer Installm
Page 137 and 138: Chart 6-4RATIO1.85Real Inventory/Sa
Page 139 and 140: percent increase in real defense pu
Page 141 and 142: 8.8 percent in 1981. These declines
Page 143 and 144: housing. Borrowing by the nonfinanc
Page 145 and 146: orous competitor for credit as usur
Page 147 and 148: 1982 their share had risen to over
Page 149 and 150: TABLE 6-9.—Economic outlook for 1
Page 151: A critical element in achieving hea
Page 155 and 156: LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
Page 157 and 158: Report to the President on the Acti
Page 159 and 160: ety of interagency and internationa
Page 161: ence J. Kotlikoff (Yale University)
Page 165 and 166: CONTENTSNATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDIT
Page 167 and 168: B-70. Mortgage debt outstanding by
Page 169 and 170: NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
Page 171 and 172: TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
Page 173: 19291933193919401941194219431944194
Page 181 and 182: TABLE B-ll.—Gross national produc
Page 183 and 184: TABLE B-13.—Output, costs, and pr
Page 185 and 186: TABLE B-14.—Personal consumption
Page 187 and 188: TABLE B-16.—Gross and net private
Page 189 and 190: TABLE B-18.—Inventories and final
Page 191 and 192: TABLE B-20.—Relation of national
Page 193 and 194: TABLE B-21.—National income by ty
Page 195 and 196: TABLE B-22.—Sources of personal i
Page 197 and 198: TABLE B-24.—Total and per capita
Page 199 and 200: Year or quarterTotalTotalTABLE B-26
Page 201 and 202: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
Page 203 and 204: TABLE B-29.—Noninstitutional popu
Page 205 and 206: TABLE B-31.—Selected employment a
Page 207 and 208: TABLE B-33.—Civilian unemployment
Page 209 and 210: TABLE B-35.—Unemployment by reaso
Page 211 and 212: TABLE B-37.— Wage and salary work
Page 213 and 214: TABLE B-39.—Average weekly earnin
Page 215 and 216: TABLE B-41.—Changes in productivi
Page 217 and 218: TABLE B-43-—Industrial production
Page 219 and 220: TABLE B-45.—Capacity utilization
Page 221 and 222: TABLE B-46.—New construction acti
Page 223 and 224: TABLE B-48.—Nonfarm business expe
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TABLE B-50.—Manufacturers' shipme
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Year or monthAllitemsPRICESTABLE B-
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TABLE B-53.—Consumer price indexe
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TABLE B-55.—Changes in consumer p
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TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexe
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MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AND FINANCETAB
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TABLE B-63.—Commercial bank loans
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TABLE B-64.—Total funds raised in
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TABLE B-66.—Aggregate reserves of
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TABLE B-67 .—Bond yields and inte
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TABLE B-69.—Consumer installment
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TABLE B-71-—Mortgage debt outstan
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TABLE B-72.—Federal budget receip
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TABLE B-74.—Relation of Federal G
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TABLE B-76.—Federal Government re
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TABLE B-78.—State and local gover
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TABLE B-80.—Estimated ownership o
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CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCETABLE
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Year or quarterTABLE B-84.—Corpor
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TABLE B-86.—Relation of profits a
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TABLE B-88.—Determinants of busin
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TABLE B-9Q.~Current assets and liab
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TABLE B-92.—Common stock prices a
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AGRICULTURETABLE B-94.—Farm incom
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TABLE B-96.—Farm input use, selec
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TABLE B-98.—U.S. exports and impo
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INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-100
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TABLE B-101.—U.S. international t
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TABLE B-103.—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-105.—International invest
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TABLE B-107.— World trade balance
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TABLE B-109.—Growth rates in real
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TABLE B-lll.—Unemployment rate, a
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