Economic Report of the President

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TABLE B-6.—Gross national product by major type of product, 1929-82[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]GoodsYear orquarterGrossnationalproductFinalsalesInventorychangeTotalTotalFinalsalesInventorychangeDurable goodsFinalsalesInventorychangeNondurable goodsFinalsaleslnven»torychangeServicesStructuresAutooutput192919331939194019411942194319441945..194619471948194919501951..1952195319541955195619571958 ..............19591960 .19611962..1963196419651966..19671968..1969197019711972..197319741975197619771978197919801981..1982 ".1980;||IllIV1981:||IllIV1982:||'IllIV ".103.455.890.9100.0125.0158 5192.12106212.4209.82331259.5258.3286.5330 8348.0366.8366 8400.0421.7444 0449.7487.9506 5524.6565 0596.7637.7691.1756 0799.6873 4944.0992.71,077.61185 9U26.41,434 21,549.21,718.01,918.3216392/17.82,633.12,937 73,057.52,575.92,573.42 643 72J39.42,864.92 90182 980 93,003.22,995.53 045 23 088 23ilO1.3101.757.490.597.8120.6156.7192.82116213.5203.5233.5254.8261.4279.7320.5344.8366.3368 4394.1417.0442.6451.2482.25036522.2558.8590.7632.1681.2741.9789.3865.5934.2989.51,070.01175.71,307.91,420.11,556,11,706.21,895.32137 42;403.52,643,12917.33iO78.92,576.62,573.92 664 82,757.12,852.72 877 22 94912,989.93,031.13 06143'083 53[l39.81.7-1.6.42.24.518-.6= 10-1.06.44.7= 3.16.810.33.1.4- 156.04.713-1.55.7302.3636.05.69.914110.3799.83.27.710 218.514.1=6.911.823.026 514.3= 10.020 5=21.4-.7= .4212-17.712.224 631813.2=35.6-16 247=38.556.127.049.056.072.593 7120.4132 3128.9125.3139.8154.4147.7162.4189.5194.6203.11961214.5223.3232 3228.2248.5254 2257.4278 5290.3309.8338.4375 0389.44213450.2459.9 456.6485.3 477.7529 6 5194604.1 585.6646 7 632.5694.0 700.9771.1 759.3855.0 832.09586 93211,065.6 1,051.31,141.91,289 21,280.61,125.21,114.5114041,187.41,265.3127611317 01,298.41,269.41,283 11295 5l|274.554.428.648.653.868.091.9121.0133.3129.9118.9140.3149.7150.8155.6179.2191.5202.7197 6208.5218.6231.0229.7242.92513255.0272.2284.3304.2328.5360.9379.1413.4440.41,151.91,268.71,302.01,125.81,114.911616l>05.11,253.1125141*285 11,285.21,305.01 299.3l'29O71J313.01.7= 1,6.42.24.51.8= .6-1.0-1.06.41.7=3.16.810.33.1.4-1.56.04.71.3-1.55.73.02.36.36.05.69.914.110.37.99.83.27.710.218.514.1=6.911.823.026.514.3= 10.020.5-21.4= .7— 4=2U= 17.712.224.631.813.2-35.6= 16.24.7= 38.516.15.412.415.423.834.554.258.550.131.844.448.050.056.266.472.577.873.981.485.991.384.490.893.392.7102.9109.4118.9131.6147.0153.5167.9178.5179.2187.1207.4237.6250.7279.4312.5354.9402.1454.3482.5519.4510.7488.1461.4481.2499.2519.8519.7527.5510.5513.2512.6506.8510.31.4=.5.31.23.11.0.0= .6-1.35.31.41.0-1.83.66.11.21.5-2.53.42.1=2.83.11.6=.13^42.74.06.710.25.54.76.4= .12.87.213.112.0-8.47.710.419.110.5= 5.28.7= 15.5-11.8= .5-13.14.62.218.519 8-5.6=30.96.610.1-34.738.323.236.238.444.257.466.874.879.887.195.9101.7100.999.4112.8119.0124.9123.7127.1132.7139.6145.3152.1158.0162.4169.3174.9185.3196.9213.9225.6245.5261,9277.5290.6312.0348.0381.8421.5446.7477.2530.1597.0669.4749.4791.3637.7653,5680.4705.9733.3731.7757.6774.7791.8786.7783.9802.70.3= 1.1.11.01.4-.6.21.1= 1.93.7= 1.33.24.22.0-1.11.02.62.6.81.32.51.32.42.83.31.63.23.94.93.13.43.34.83.05.32.21.54.212.67.33.8=4.811.7=5.911.1.08.1=22.310.06.112.018.9=4.8-9.6=-5.4-3.835,925.934.435.740.850.863.072.377.068.871.677.282.288.5103.5113.9121.6126.2136.1146.2158.7167.7179.8193.8207.0222.0237.1255.0273.3299.0326.5358.2391.9429.9472.0519.0571.5636.1705.2779.3867.2972.21,089.71,225.51,364.31.492.11,174.71,207.21,243.31,277.01,313.51,340.21,382.11,421.51,444.41,476.71,509.51,537.611.42.97.58.311.814.08.76.16.515.721.728.028.435.637.839.442.044.549.552.253,053.859.558.560.264.569.372.979.382.083.694.0101.8102.9120.3137.3150.8151.4150.0167.6196.1233.1262.5265.7284.2284.9276.0251.8259.9275.1286.1285.6281.9283.3281.7285.3283.2289.27"28.811.915.413.312.016.114.721.216.919.414.419.421.317.822.525.225.931.230.428.035.134.928.739.141.646.239.240.755.965.169.568.059.869.265.763.151.956.867.566.173.778.758.353.569.975,264.3Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.170
TABLE B-7.—Gross national product by major type of product in 1972 dollars, 1929-82[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]Year orquarterGrossnationalproductFinalsalesInventorychangeGoodsTotalTotalFinalsalesInventorychangeDurable goodsFinalsalesInventorychangeNondurable goodsFinalsalesInventorychangeServicesStructuresAutooutput1929193319391940194119421943194419451946194719481949195019511952195319541955195619571958195919601961196219631964196519661967.196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979 .198019811982 >1980:\\"""ZZIIIIV1981:IIIIllIV1982:I IIIllIV P.315.7222.1319.8344.1400.4461.7531.6569.1560.4478.3470.3489.8492.2534.8579.4600.8623.6616.1657.5671.6683.8680.9721.7737.2756.6800.3832.5876.4929.3984.81,011.41,058.11,087.61,085.61,122.41,185.91,254.31,246.31,231.61,298.21,369.71,438.61,479.41,474.01,502.61,475.51,494.91,457.81,463.81,479.41,507.81,502.21,510.41,490.11,470.71,478.41,481.11,471.7311.0227.0318.2337.9388.4456.5531.5571.4564.0466.1470.6484.3496.6524.2565.6596.5622.1618.2649.8665.8682.2682.7714.7733.7753.7792.4825.0869.3917.5968.0999.21,049.11,076.61,081.81,114.31,175.71,237.11,234.71,238.41,290.41,356.41,422.61,472.21,479.01,493.71,484.01,497.51,460.31,472.31,485.71,505.41,490.11,493.91,485.31,486.11,482.71,477.81,489.34.6-4.91.66.212.05.2.1-2.3-3.612.2-.25.5-4.410.613.74.31.5-2.27.75.81.5-1.87.03.53.07.87.57.111.816.812.29.011.13.88.110.217.211.6-6.77.813.316.07.3-5.09.0-8.5-2.6-2.5-8.5-6.22.412.116.54.8-15.4-4.43.4-17.7144.397.5154.3171.7198.6221.4263.3287.3278.5238.3237.7244.8240.3261.5283.7292.1306.8292.7316.7320.9321.7311.6332.5335.8338.0361.3372.2393.8422.6456.4463.4483.1496.0486.9497.2529.6572.3562.5547.4587.2628.1662.0677.7667.9689.5661.1682.5658.2659.5671.6692.8689.8697.2678.0661.8663.2665.1654.5139.7102.3152.7165.5186.6216.2263.3289.6282.2226.2237.9239.4244.7250.9270.0287.8305.3294.9309.0315.1320.2313.4325.5332.3335.0353.5364.7386.7410.8439.6451.2474.1484.9483.2489.1519.4555.1550.9554.2579.4614.8645.9670.4672.9680.5669.6685.1660.7668.0677.8690.4677.7680.7673.2677.2667.5661.7672.14.6-4.91.66.212.05.2-2.3-3.612.2-.25.5-4.410.613.74.31.5-2.27.75.81.5-1.87.03.53.07.87.57.111.816.812.29.011.13.88.110.217.211.6-6.77.813.316.07.3-5.09.0-8.5-2.6-2.5-8.5-6.22.412.116.54.8-15.4-4.43.4-17.740.417.535.543.157.875.7118.8135.9121.260.375.577.378.386.198.2107.9116.2109.0117.2117.8119.4109.2113.6115.6114.7125.7132.5143.0157.2174.0178.3187.4193.0187.5188.7207.4236.1234.1230.2242.7264.7285.4299.1290.8289.3273.3304.2279.8286.9292.4298.9290.5290.2277.6278.7274.9269.2270.63.5-2.1.73.48.23.5-1.8-3.710.81.41.6-2.95.59.01.72.3-3.74.52.9.9-3.43.92.0-.14.23.45.18.212.36.65.47.2.03.07.212.79.4-6.45.46.911.86.2-2.63.8-6.5-4.7-1.2-6.21.8.19.18.6-2.5-13.7-2.64.8-14.799.384.9117.2122.4128.7140.5144.4153.7161,0165.8162.4162.1166.4164.8171.8179.9189.1185.9191.9197.2200.8204.3211.9216.6220.3227.8232.2243.7253.6265.6272.9286.7291.9295.7300.4312.0319.0316.8324.0336.7350.1360.5371.3382.1391.2396.3380.8380.9381.1385.5391.5387.2390.5395.6398.5392.6392.5401.51.1-2.82.83.81.7-.6-.5U-1.63.8-1.55.14.72.6-.81.53.22.9.61.63.11.63.03.74.21.93.64.55.63.63.93.75.13.04.52.2~2A6.34.31.1-2.45.1-2.02.2-1.3-2.4-8.02.33.07.97.3-1.7-1.7-1,5-2.9127.4110.7135.2139.9158.5193.9242.0263.7263.0200.8188.1192.5198.3207.4231.3243.2247.5249.1260.1270.2282.4287.6299.4312.5326.9341.5356.2374.0390.7412.6434.1453.0469.2482.4497.8519.0542.8562.8575.9595.0617.3644.7670.7687.1695.6701.3684.2686.0690.0688.2693.1693.2697.5698.6697.0702.2703.6702.343.914.030.332.543.346.326.218.118.839.144.652.453.665.964.365.569.374.380.780.579.781.789.889.091.797.4104.1108.6116.0115.9113.9122.0122.5116.3127.3137.3139.1121.0108.3116.0124.4131.9131.0118.9117.6113.1128.3113.6114.3119.6121.9119.2115.7113,4111.9113.0112.5114.912.313.918.023.019.317.122.621.629.823.024.518.623.225.321.226.028.729.435.734.831.838.537.429.838.941.646.437.135.745.350.750.347.038.741.537.642.033.836.742.241.644.545.634.431.339.742.337.1Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.171
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CONTENTSPageECONOMIC REPORT OF THE
Page 9 and 10:
ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
Page 11 and 12:
Monetary policy will play a critica
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Interest Rates and the U.S. Trade D
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THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
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CONTENTSPageCHAPTER 1. FROM RECESSI
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PageConclusions 122CHAPTER 6. REVIE
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CHAPTER 1From Recession to Recovery
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slowed somewhat in the 1970s regard
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nal GNP growth is reflected in a sl
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inflation. More specifically, the A
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inflation rate, or with a 12 percen
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1988, an increase of about one-four
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CHAPTER 2The Dual Problems of Struc
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frequently associated with poor hea
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Chart 2-2Distribution of Unemployme
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Chart 2-4Distribution of Unemployme
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These findings suggest several conc
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Wage RigidityA number of studies sh
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that these measures may have caused
Page 49 and 50:
Most young people find jobs or leav
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to employers who hire youths. Tax c
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defined broadly to include individu
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ship between incomplete experience
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CHAPTER 3The United States in the W
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with 2.6 percent in the other Organ
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TABLE 3-1 .—Structure ofthe U.S.
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TABLE 3-2.—Trade balances by comm
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concentrate on doing what it does r
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the United States will depress pric
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Chart 3-3Real Exchange Rates Of Maj
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AN UNDERVALUED YEN?The explanations
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arily reduced the international com
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nancial markets. These transactions
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TABLE 3-6.—Economic performance b
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were undoubtedly a highly favorable
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of lenders that some debtors will n
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CHAPTER 4Increasing Capital Formati
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ate of net investment was required,
Page 87 and 88:
able share in Japan and 56 percent
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During the 1970s, productivity grow
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MEASURING NATIONAL SAVINGDomestic s
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TAX RULES AND PERSONAL SAVINGMany e
Page 95 and 96:
on consumption taxation might also
Page 97 and 98:
Nevertheless, a number of economic
Page 99 and 100:
tion permitted businesses to deprec
Page 101 and 102:
A final problem under current tax l
Page 103 and 104:
fleeted efforts to deal with proble
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egulation was probably not applicab
Page 107 and 108:
Aeronautics Board, for example, the
Page 109 and 110:
system resulted. Price controls, wh
Page 111 and 112:
NGPA, both controlled and decontrol
Page 113 and 114:
Price and allocation controls only
Page 115 and 116:
nications industries through the re
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Several major pieces of legislation
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tempt to set cartel rates would be
Page 121 and 122:
computer information and advertisin
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of computer technology to the payme
Page 125 and 126: trend by widening the sources and u
Page 127 and 128: changes. That is, members can arbit
Page 129 and 130: ceived to be a consequence of exces
Page 131 and 132: lowest point in the post-World War
Page 133 and 134: ing. Partly in response to the drop
Page 135 and 136: Chart 6-3Ratio of Consumer Installm
Page 137 and 138: Chart 6-4RATIO1.85Real Inventory/Sa
Page 139 and 140: percent increase in real defense pu
Page 141 and 142: 8.8 percent in 1981. These declines
Page 143 and 144: housing. Borrowing by the nonfinanc
Page 145 and 146: orous competitor for credit as usur
Page 147 and 148: 1982 their share had risen to over
Page 149 and 150: TABLE 6-9.—Economic outlook for 1
Page 151: A critical element in achieving hea
Page 155 and 156: LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
Page 157 and 158: Report to the President on the Acti
Page 159 and 160: ety of interagency and internationa
Page 161: ence J. Kotlikoff (Yale University)
Page 165 and 166: CONTENTSNATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDIT
Page 167 and 168: B-70. Mortgage debt outstanding by
Page 169 and 170: NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
Page 171 and 172: TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
Page 173 and 174: 19291933193919401941194219431944194
Page 175: TABLE B-5.—Changes in GNP and GNP
Page 179 and 180: TABLE B-9.—Gross national product
Page 181 and 182: TABLE B-ll.—Gross national produc
Page 183 and 184: TABLE B-13.—Output, costs, and pr
Page 185 and 186: TABLE B-14.—Personal consumption
Page 187 and 188: TABLE B-16.—Gross and net private
Page 189 and 190: TABLE B-18.—Inventories and final
Page 191 and 192: TABLE B-20.—Relation of national
Page 193 and 194: TABLE B-21.—National income by ty
Page 195 and 196: TABLE B-22.—Sources of personal i
Page 197 and 198: TABLE B-24.—Total and per capita
Page 199 and 200: Year or quarterTotalTotalTABLE B-26
Page 201 and 202: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
Page 203 and 204: TABLE B-29.—Noninstitutional popu
Page 205 and 206: TABLE B-31.—Selected employment a
Page 207 and 208: TABLE B-33.—Civilian unemployment
Page 209 and 210: TABLE B-35.—Unemployment by reaso
Page 211 and 212: TABLE B-37.— Wage and salary work
Page 213 and 214: TABLE B-39.—Average weekly earnin
Page 215 and 216: TABLE B-41.—Changes in productivi
Page 217 and 218: TABLE B-43-—Industrial production
Page 219 and 220: TABLE B-45.—Capacity utilization
Page 221 and 222: TABLE B-46.—New construction acti
Page 223 and 224: TABLE B-48.—Nonfarm business expe
Page 225 and 226: TABLE B-50.—Manufacturers' shipme
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Year or monthAllitemsPRICESTABLE B-
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TABLE B-53.—Consumer price indexe
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TABLE B-55.—Changes in consumer p
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TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexe
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Page 237 and 238:
Page 239 and 240:
MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AND FINANCETAB
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TABLE B-63.—Commercial bank loans
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TABLE B-64.—Total funds raised in
Page 245 and 246:
TABLE B-66.—Aggregate reserves of
Page 247 and 248:
TABLE B-67 .—Bond yields and inte
Page 249 and 250:
TABLE B-69.—Consumer installment
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TABLE B-71-—Mortgage debt outstan
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TABLE B-72.—Federal budget receip
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TABLE B-74.—Relation of Federal G
Page 257 and 258:
TABLE B-76.—Federal Government re
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TABLE B-78.—State and local gover
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TABLE B-80.—Estimated ownership o
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CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCETABLE
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Year or quarterTABLE B-84.—Corpor
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TABLE B-86.—Relation of profits a
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TABLE B-88.—Determinants of busin
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TABLE B-9Q.~Current assets and liab
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TABLE B-92.—Common stock prices a
Page 275 and 276:
AGRICULTURETABLE B-94.—Farm incom
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TABLE B-96.—Farm input use, selec
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TABLE B-98.—U.S. exports and impo
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INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-100
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TABLE B-101.—U.S. international t
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TABLE B-103.—U.S. merchandise exp
Page 287 and 288:
TABLE B-105.—International invest
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TABLE B-107.— World trade balance
Page 291 and 292:
TABLE B-109.—Growth rates in real
Page 293:
TABLE B-lll.—Unemployment rate, a
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