Economic Report of the President

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Chart 2-1Distribution of Unemployment by Age and SexADULT MALES25 AND OVER25.2% ADULT MALES25 AND OVER34.5%ADULT FEMALES,25 AND OVER24.6%1978 1982NOTE.—DATA RELATE TO PERSONS 16 YEARS AND OVER.SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.A pattern that appears in Chart 2-2 is the cyclical sensitivity of unemploymentamong those who provide the primary financial supportfor a family. The share of unemployment among husbands, wives,and family heads in families without a working spouse rose from 20percent in 1978 to 24 percent in 1982. Because unemployment undoubtedlyimposes its greatest hardship when it hits a worker uponwhom others depend for their sole support, this increase is particularlydistressing.A continuing tragedy in both good and bad times is the very highrates of unemployment of blacks and other minorities. This group accountsfor a share of unemployment that is greatly disproportionateto its share of the labor force. While blacks and other minoritiescomprised 13 percent of the labor force in 1982, they comprised approximately23 percent of the unemployed. Chart 2-3, shows that therecent recession raised the unemployment rate of blacks and otherminorities proportionally less than that of the rest of the population.However, black and other minority unemployment rates increasedsharply during the recession and continue to greatly exceed those ofthe entire population. The unemployment rate for black and otherminority adult males was 16.2 percent in 1982, compared to 7.8 percentfor white males. For black and other minority teenagers the unemploymentrate was 43.9 percent, compared to 20.4 percent forwhite teenagers.32
Chart 2-2Distribution of Unemployment by Family StatusHUSBANDS,SPOUSE WORKING7.8%HUSBANDS.SPOUSE WORKING11.5%1978 1982'HUSBANDS AND WIVES WHOSE SPOUSE DOES NOT WORK AND PERSONS WHO MAINTAINFAMILIES.NOTE.^DATA RELATE TO PERSONS 16 YEARS AND OVER.SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.REASONS FOR UNEMPLOYMENTAnalyzing the problem of unemployment requires understandingthe process by which people become unemployed. The unemployedare often described in stereotyped terms as the victims of permanentlayoffs by firms that are either partially or fully shutting down. Evenduring the recent recession, however, this characterization applied toless than half of the unemployed.As part of the monthly Current Population Survey, the unemployedare asked a number of questions designed to elicit the reasonsfor their unemployment. The answers to these questions permit abreakdown of the unemployed into five groups: (1) persons laid offwho can expect to return to the same job; (2) persons who have lostjobs to which they cannot expect to return; (3) persons who havequit their jobs; (4) reentrants who are returning to the labor forceafter a spell of neither working nor looking for work; and (5) newentrants who have never worked at a full-time job before but are nowseeking employment.Chart 2-4 shows that the distribution of the unemployed amongthese categories is very sensitive to cyclical conditions. The share ofpersons who have lost their jobs, either temporarily or permanently,33
Page 5: CONTENTSPageECONOMIC REPORT OF THE
Page 9 and 10: ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
Page 11 and 12: Monetary policy will play a critica
Page 13 and 14: Interest Rates and the U.S. Trade D
Page 15: THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
Page 19 and 20: CONTENTSPageCHAPTER 1. FROM RECESSI
Page 21 and 22: PageConclusions 122CHAPTER 6. REVIE
Page 23 and 24: CHAPTER 1From Recession to Recovery
Page 25 and 26: slowed somewhat in the 1970s regard
Page 27 and 28: nal GNP growth is reflected in a sl
Page 29 and 30: inflation. More specifically, the A
Page 31 and 32: inflation rate, or with a 12 percen
Page 33 and 34: 1988, an increase of about one-four
Page 35 and 36: CHAPTER 2The Dual Problems of Struc
Page 37: frequently associated with poor hea
Page 41 and 42: Chart 2-4Distribution of Unemployme
Page 43 and 44: These findings suggest several conc
Page 45 and 46: Wage RigidityA number of studies sh
Page 47 and 48: that these measures may have caused
Page 49 and 50: Most young people find jobs or leav
Page 51 and 52: to employers who hire youths. Tax c
Page 53 and 54: defined broadly to include individu
Page 55 and 56: ship between incomplete experience
Page 57 and 58: CHAPTER 3The United States in the W
Page 59 and 60: with 2.6 percent in the other Organ
Page 61 and 62: TABLE 3-1 .—Structure ofthe U.S.
Page 63 and 64: TABLE 3-2.—Trade balances by comm
Page 65 and 66: concentrate on doing what it does r
Page 67 and 68: the United States will depress pric
Page 69 and 70: Chart 3-3Real Exchange Rates Of Maj
Page 71 and 72: AN UNDERVALUED YEN?The explanations
Page 73 and 74: arily reduced the international com
Page 75 and 76: nancial markets. These transactions
Page 77 and 78: TABLE 3-6.—Economic performance b
Page 79 and 80: were undoubtedly a highly favorable
Page 81 and 82: of lenders that some debtors will n
Page 83 and 84: CHAPTER 4Increasing Capital Formati
Page 85 and 86: ate of net investment was required,
Page 87 and 88: able share in Japan and 56 percent
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During the 1970s, productivity grow
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MEASURING NATIONAL SAVINGDomestic s
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TAX RULES AND PERSONAL SAVINGMany e
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on consumption taxation might also
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Nevertheless, a number of economic
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tion permitted businesses to deprec
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A final problem under current tax l
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fleeted efforts to deal with proble
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egulation was probably not applicab
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Aeronautics Board, for example, the
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system resulted. Price controls, wh
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NGPA, both controlled and decontrol
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Price and allocation controls only
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nications industries through the re
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Several major pieces of legislation
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tempt to set cartel rates would be
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computer information and advertisin
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of computer technology to the payme
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trend by widening the sources and u
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changes. That is, members can arbit
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ceived to be a consequence of exces
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lowest point in the post-World War
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ing. Partly in response to the drop
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Chart 6-3Ratio of Consumer Installm
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Chart 6-4RATIO1.85Real Inventory/Sa
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percent increase in real defense pu
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8.8 percent in 1981. These declines
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housing. Borrowing by the nonfinanc
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orous competitor for credit as usur
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1982 their share had risen to over
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TABLE 6-9.—Economic outlook for 1
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A critical element in achieving hea
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Report to the President on the Acti
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ety of interagency and internationa
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ence J. Kotlikoff (Yale University)
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CONTENTSNATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDIT
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B-70. Mortgage debt outstanding by
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NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
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TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
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19291933193919401941194219431944194
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TABLE B-5.—Changes in GNP and GNP
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TABLE B-ll.—Gross national produc
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TABLE B-13.—Output, costs, and pr
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TABLE B-14.—Personal consumption
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TABLE B-16.—Gross and net private
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TABLE B-18.—Inventories and final
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TABLE B-20.—Relation of national
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TABLE B-21.—National income by ty
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TABLE B-22.—Sources of personal i
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TABLE B-24.—Total and per capita
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Year or quarterTotalTotalTABLE B-26
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POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
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TABLE B-29.—Noninstitutional popu
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TABLE B-31.—Selected employment a
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TABLE B-33.—Civilian unemployment
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TABLE B-35.—Unemployment by reaso
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TABLE B-37.— Wage and salary work
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TABLE B-39.—Average weekly earnin
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TABLE B-41.—Changes in productivi
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TABLE B-43-—Industrial production
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TABLE B-45.—Capacity utilization
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TABLE B-46.—New construction acti
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TABLE B-48.—Nonfarm business expe
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TABLE B-50.—Manufacturers' shipme
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Year or monthAllitemsPRICESTABLE B-
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TABLE B-53.—Consumer price indexe
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TABLE B-55.—Changes in consumer p
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TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexe
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MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AND FINANCETAB
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TABLE B-63.—Commercial bank loans
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TABLE B-64.—Total funds raised in
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TABLE B-66.—Aggregate reserves of
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TABLE B-67 .—Bond yields and inte
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TABLE B-69.—Consumer installment
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TABLE B-71-—Mortgage debt outstan
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TABLE B-72.—Federal budget receip
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TABLE B-74.—Relation of Federal G
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TABLE B-76.—Federal Government re
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TABLE B-78.—State and local gover
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TABLE B-80.—Estimated ownership o
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CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCETABLE
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Year or quarterTABLE B-84.—Corpor
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TABLE B-86.—Relation of profits a
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TABLE B-88.—Determinants of busin
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TABLE B-9Q.~Current assets and liab
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TABLE B-92.—Common stock prices a
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AGRICULTURETABLE B-94.—Farm incom
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TABLE B-96.—Farm input use, selec
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TABLE B-98.—U.S. exports and impo
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INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-100
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TABLE B-101.—U.S. international t
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TABLE B-103.—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-105.—International invest
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TABLE B-107.— World trade balance
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TABLE B-109.—Growth rates in real
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TABLE B-lll.—Unemployment rate, a
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