TABLE B-49.—Sales and inventories in manufacturing and trade 1947-82[Amounts in millions <strong>of</strong> dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]Year or monthTotal manufacturing andtradeSales 1Ratio 3Sales 1ManufacturingInventories*Merchant wholesalersRetail tradetories Inven-2 Ratio3 Sales 1tories Inven-2 Ratio3 Sales 1tories Inven-21947...1948...1949...1950...1951...1952...1953...1954...1955...1956...1957...1958...1959...1960...1961...1962...1963...1964...1965...1966...1967...1968...1969...1970...1971...1972...1973...1974...19751976197719781979198019811981:Jan..Feb..Mar..ftay...June....JulyAugSeptOcfNovDec1982:JanFebMar....June...July..Aug..SfcNov...35,26033,78838,59643,35644,84047,98746,44351,69454,06355,87954,20159,72960,82761,15965,66268,99573,68280,28387,18790,34898,104105,003107,448116,017130,030153,412177,625182,230204,277229,623259,046294,573321,504350,622347,858348,653350,281352,855353,698356,524355,236354,520353,725346,605344,943341,330334,579340,571342,121339,835349,096346,126344,603339,464339,470332,537335,93852,50749,49759,82270,24272,37776,12273,17579,51687,30489,05287,09392,12994,71395,594101,063105,480111,503120,907136,790144,796155,697169,343177,556187,766201,950233,237285,807288,375318,544351,176397,090444,132482,570519,394485,396490,291492,399494,177497,812501,531504,744510,099515,349518,241521,574519,394516,256513,906513,054515,074510,517512,981513,387514,554515,399514,224508,5531.421.531.361.551.581.581.601.471.551.591.601.501.561.541.501.491.471.451.471.561.541.551.621.581.491.411.451.571.481.461.441.431.451.431.401.411.411.401.411.411.421.441.461.501.511.521.541.511.501.521.461.481.491.521.521.551.5115,51317,31616,12618,63421,71422,52924,84323,35526,48027,74028,73627,24730,28630,87930,92333,35735,05837,33140,99544,87046,48750,22853,50152,80555,90663,02372,93784,79486,59598,802113,201126,953143,935154,249166,217163,902164,676165,936167,649168,073170,951170,333169,274168,156163,957161,442159,614155,023158,142157,517156,114160,828161,519161,382158,619159,278152,473152,34325,89728,54326,32131,07839,30641,13643,94841,61245,06950,64251,87150,24152,94553,78054,88558,18660,04663,40968,18577,95284,66490,61898,202101,651102,658108,238124,628157,792159,934175,193189,334210,679241,034264,016283,152266,798269,146271,062272,060274,196274,616276,983279,102282,209284,386285,784283,152281,155281,688280,065278,985276,449275,115274,914274,302272,474271,710269,2971.581.571.751.481.661.781.761.811.621.731.801.841.701.751.741.701.691.641.601.621.761.741.771.901.831.671.581.651.841.691.611.571.571.661.661.631.631.631.621.631.611.631.651.681.731.771.771.811.781.781.791.721.701.701.731.711.781.776,5147,6958,5978,7829,0528,9939,89310,51310,47510,25711,49111,65611,98812,67413,38214,52915,61116,98719,44820,84622,60923,94326,25729,58438,01447,74846,62350,69455,98765,03676,10987,93197,83999,85298,77698,21798,94499,26498,27497,61197,28597,74696,23596,76895,14494,23695,01097,36195,42797,42796,56593,77692,34390,86689,77490,9827,9577,7069,2849,88610,21010,68610,63711,67813,26012,73012,73913,87914,12014,48814,93616,04817,00018,31720,76524,83326,13428,62432,03835,04538,63345,37256,94856,69764,07872,31183,89193,870104,441110,549104,233105,027105,189105,149105,425106,904105,768107,656108,764108,491110,173110,549110,971108,823109,657112,913111,701113,515113,534113,101113,852113,886112,6691.131.191.071.161.121.171.181.131.191.231.241.151.221.201.161.151.141.151.151.241.231.221.271.271.241.111.071.211.191.211.211.181.131.091.041.061.071.061.061.091.081.111.111.131.141.161.181.151.131.181.151.181.211.221.251.271.2410,20011,13511,14912,26813,04613,52914,09114,09515,32115,81116,66716,69617,95118,29418,24919,63020,55621,82323,67725,33024,41327,03028,89330,70033,85337,42242,46245,08249,01254,78160,43567,05774,52979,32586,56684,10485,20186,12886,26386,36187,29987,29287,96187,82386,41386,73386,57285,32087,41887,24288,29490,84188,04289,44588,50289,32690,29092,61314,24116,00715,47019,46021,05021,03121,48820,92622,76923,40224,45124,11325,30526,81326,22127,94129,38631,09434,40538,07335,29938,94542,51743,86750,06355,07963,23771,06771,74479,27389,530102,520109,228114,114125,693114,365116,118116,148116,968118,191120,010121,993123,341124,376125,364125,618125,693124,131123,395123,332123,175122,367124,351124,939127,151129,073128,628126,5871 Monthly average for year and total for month.2 Seasonally adjusted, end <strong>of</strong> period.3 Inventory/sales ratio. For annual periods, ratio <strong>of</strong> weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio* <strong>of</strong>inventories at end <strong>of</strong> month to sales for month.Note.—Earlier data are not strictly comparable with data beginning 1958 for manufacturing and beginning 1967 for wholesale andretail trade.The inventory figures in this table do not agree with <strong>the</strong> estimates <strong>of</strong> change in business inventories included in <strong>the</strong> gross nationalproduct since <strong>the</strong>se figures cover only manufacturing and trade ra<strong>the</strong>r than all business, and show inventories in terms <strong>of</strong> current bookvalue without adjustment for revaluation.Source: Department <strong>of</strong> Commerce (Bureau <strong>of</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> Analysis and Bureau <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Census).218
TABLE B-50.—Manufacturers' shipments and inventories, 1947-82[Millions <strong>of</strong> dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]Year ormonthShipments 1TotalDurablegoodsindustriesNondurableindustriesInventories 2TotalDurable goods industriesTotalMaterialsandsuppliesWorkinproc-FinishedgoodsNondurable goods industriesTotalMaterialsandsuppliesWorkinprocessFinishedgoods194719481949195019511952195319541955195619571958195919601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721.973197419751976197719781979198019811981:JanFebMarMay!'"!June....JulyAugSept....OctNovDec1982:JanFebMarMay!!"!June....JulyAugSept...,OctNov...15,51317,31616,12618,63421,71422,52924,84323,35526,48027,74028,73627,24730,28630,87930,92333,35735,05837,33140,99544,87046,48750,22853,50152,80555,90663,02372,93784,79486,59598,802113,201126,953143,935154,249166,217163,902164,676165,936167,649168,073170,951170,333169,274168,156163,957161,442159,614155,023158,142157,517156,114160,828161,519161,382158,619159,278152,473152,3436,6947,5797,1918,84510,49311,31313,34911,82814,07114,71515,23713,56315,60915,88315,61617,26218,28019,63722,22124,64925,26727,65929,43728,18829,95434,02439,68644,22843,65650,68959,26767,84876,06077,54083,41781,43682,17683,51084,78485,43986,89185,73985,22384,67181,26580,27979,13375,55177,97678,12477,13679,51878,88879,03677,24876,56272,34272,7088,8199,7388,9359,78911,22111,21611,49411,52712,40913,02513,49913,68414,67714,99615,30716,09516,77817,69418,77420,22021,22022,57024,06424,61725,95229,00033,25040,56742,93948,11353,93459,10467,87576,70882,80082,46682,50082,42682,86482,63484,06084,59484,05183,48582,69281,16380,48179,47280,16779,39478,97881,31082,63182,34681,37182,71680,13179,63525,89728,54326,32131,07839,30641,13643,94841,61245,06950,64251,87150,24152,94553,78054,88558,18660,04663,40968,18577,95284,66490,61898,202101,651102,658108,238124,628157,792159,934175,193189,334210,679241,034264,016283,152266,798269,146271,062272,060274,196274,616276,983279,102282,209284,386285,784283,152281,155281,688280,065278,985276,449275,115274,914274,302272,474271,710269,29713,06114,66213,06015,53920,99123,73125,87823,71026,40530,44731,72830,25832,07732,37132,54434,63235,86638,50642,25749,92055,00558,87564,73966,78066,28970,25081,398101,739102,874112,581121,737138,045160,601174,674188,429176,632177,725178,374179,301180,010181,125183,229185,022187,686189,461190,222188,429187,054187,121186,063185,916184,870184,289183,798183,550182,793181,843179,3248,9667,8949,19410,41710,60810,03210,77610,35310,27910,81011,06811,97013,32515,48916,45517,37618,69319,18219,75920,86026,02835,15133,92037,54840,35045,33452,80555,31058,46156,40956,75456,38256,75756,39457,01758,01658,12158,90859,11759,21658,46158,18457,99956,89756,94755,99655,64355,78155,19154,70354,27953,62410,7209,72110,75612,31712,83712,38713,06312,77213,20314,15914,87116,19118,07521,93925,00527,33630,40829,84828,65030,78835,54542,60343,36946,34550,62558,69469,21276,85182,81478,33778,66279,15979,73380,43580,36281,04181,63582,62183,58884,05882,81482,21182,09781,72981,56281,28481,30480,21680,45880,37980,56779,9956,2066,0406,3487,5658,1257,8398,2399,2459,0639,6629,92510,34410,85412,49113,54714,16315,63917,75117,88018,60119,82323,98525,58628,69030,76334,01838,58542,51347,15341,88742,30942,83542,81243,18043,74444,17245,26646,15846,75646,94647,15346,65947,02647,43547,40847,59047,34247,80147,90147,71146,99745,70512,83613,88113,26115,53918,31517,40518,07017,90218,66420,19520,14319,98320,86821,40922,34123,55424,18024,90325,92828,03229,65931,74333,46334,87136,36837,98843,23056,05357,06062,61267,59872,63480,43389,34194,72390,16691,42192,68892,75994,18693,49293,75494,08094,52394,92595,56194,72394,10094,56794,00293,07091,57990,82691,11690,75289,68189,86789,9738,3178,1678,5568,9718,7758,6629,0809,0829,4939,8139,97810,13110,44811,15511,71512,28912,72413,15013,68314,67618,13223,69923,54225,83327,39729,35432,47936,20838,01536,82037,05036,97437,20637,30537,07437,53137,44737,60637,72037,83438,01537,96137,89937,31737,48637,17236,71436,78936,44835,80035,63735,8142,4722,4402,5712,7212,8642,8282,9442,9463,1103,2963,4063,5113,8064,2044,4214,8485,1225,2745,6655,9826,7078,1758,8379,93310,98911,91313,71015,65616,19615,81816,12616,19416,26316,50916,16116,17416,25116,21315,91216,17416,19615,95915,79215,62915,60115,43815,55515,51915,52915,19214,85714,7937,4097,4157,6668,6228,6248,4918,8459,3809,73810,44410,79611,26111,67412,67313,52314,60615,61716,44817,01917,33018,39124,17924,68126,84629,21231,36734,24437,47840,51137,52838,24539,52139,29040,37240,25740,04840,38240,70541,29341,55540,51140,17940,87741,05739,98338,96938,55738,80838,77538,68939,37339,3661 Monthly average for year and total for month.2 Book value, seasonally adjusted, end <strong>of</strong> period.Note.—Data beginning 1958 are not strictly comparable with earlier data.Source: Department <strong>of</strong> Commerce, Bureau <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Census.219
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CONTENTSPageECONOMIC REPORT OF THE
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
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Monetary policy will play a critica
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Interest Rates and the U.S. Trade D
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THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
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CONTENTSPageCHAPTER 1. FROM RECESSI
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PageConclusions 122CHAPTER 6. REVIE
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CHAPTER 1From Recession to Recovery
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slowed somewhat in the 1970s regard
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nal GNP growth is reflected in a sl
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inflation. More specifically, the A
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inflation rate, or with a 12 percen
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1988, an increase of about one-four
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CHAPTER 2The Dual Problems of Struc
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frequently associated with poor hea
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Chart 2-2Distribution of Unemployme
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Chart 2-4Distribution of Unemployme
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These findings suggest several conc
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Wage RigidityA number of studies sh
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that these measures may have caused
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Most young people find jobs or leav
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to employers who hire youths. Tax c
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defined broadly to include individu
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ship between incomplete experience
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CHAPTER 3The United States in the W
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with 2.6 percent in the other Organ
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TABLE 3-1 .—Structure ofthe U.S.
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TABLE 3-2.—Trade balances by comm
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concentrate on doing what it does r
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the United States will depress pric
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Chart 3-3Real Exchange Rates Of Maj
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AN UNDERVALUED YEN?The explanations
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arily reduced the international com
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nancial markets. These transactions
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TABLE 3-6.—Economic performance b
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were undoubtedly a highly favorable
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of lenders that some debtors will n
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CHAPTER 4Increasing Capital Formati
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ate of net investment was required,
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able share in Japan and 56 percent
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During the 1970s, productivity grow
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MEASURING NATIONAL SAVINGDomestic s
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TAX RULES AND PERSONAL SAVINGMany e
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on consumption taxation might also
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Nevertheless, a number of economic
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tion permitted businesses to deprec
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A final problem under current tax l
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fleeted efforts to deal with proble
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egulation was probably not applicab
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Aeronautics Board, for example, the
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system resulted. Price controls, wh
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NGPA, both controlled and decontrol
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Price and allocation controls only
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nications industries through the re
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Several major pieces of legislation
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tempt to set cartel rates would be
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computer information and advertisin
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of computer technology to the payme
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trend by widening the sources and u
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changes. That is, members can arbit
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ceived to be a consequence of exces
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lowest point in the post-World War
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ing. Partly in response to the drop
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Chart 6-3Ratio of Consumer Installm
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Chart 6-4RATIO1.85Real Inventory/Sa
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percent increase in real defense pu
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8.8 percent in 1981. These declines
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housing. Borrowing by the nonfinanc
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orous competitor for credit as usur
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1982 their share had risen to over
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TABLE 6-9.—Economic outlook for 1
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A critical element in achieving hea
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Report to the President on the Acti
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ety of interagency and internationa
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ence J. Kotlikoff (Yale University)
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CONTENTSNATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDIT
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B-70. Mortgage debt outstanding by
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NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
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TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
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AGRICULTURETABLE B-94.—Farm incom
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TABLE B-96.—Farm input use, selec
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TABLE B-98.—U.S. exports and impo
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INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-100
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TABLE B-101.—U.S. international t
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TABLE B-103.—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-105.—International invest
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TABLE B-107.— World trade balance
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TABLE B-109.—Growth rates in real
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TABLE B-lll.—Unemployment rate, a