Economic Report of the President

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TABLE B-17.—Inventories and final sales of business, 1946-82[Billions of dollars, except as noted; seasonally adjusted]Inventories 1HonfarmYear and quarterTotal FarmTotalManufacturingWholesaletradeFourth quarter:194672.0 22 7 49.3 26 7 10.1194782.6 25.1 57.5 29.3 10.5194887.2 22 9 64.3 32.5 11.7194978.7 19.8 59.0 28.9 11.8195098 0 261 719 35 2 13.81951110.5 28.3 82.2 43.4 14.61952109 2 260 83.1 44 4 14.81953110.1 24.6 85.5 46.4 15.01954107.6 23.8 83.9 44.3 15.31955114 8 22 5 92.2 48 8 16.61956124.0 22.9 101.0 54.5 17.91957127 6 24 3 103.3 548 18.21958127.3 25.6 101.7 53.2 18.31959132.0 24.4 107.6 55.7 20.0I960136 0 25 6 1104 56 6 2041961137.9 25.9 112.1 57.7 , 20.91962144 6 27 3 117 3 60 9 21.51963150.4 27.6 122.7 62.9 23.11964156.2 26.5 129.7 66.4 24.41965170.5 29.9 140.6 71.5 26.31966187.4 296 157.8 817 29.91967199.4 29.5 169.9 88.7 32.41968213.5 306 1829 952 34.31969234.6 33.3 201.3 104.8 37.71970244.0 32.3 211.6 108.4 41.71971260.8 36.7 224.1 109.9 44.91972288 7 45 6 2431 116 8 4941973357.7 66.6 291.2 141.1 60.21974434.4 62.4 372.0 189.6 76.91975439.4 64 5 374.9 189 8 77.31976473 6 606 4130 207 5 86 91977519.5 59.9 459.6 224.7 98.71978602 3 739 528 3 254 2 114 61979705.0 81.9 623.1 306.6 135.71980776.0 86.9 689.1 342.6 153.01981822.4 818 740 5 366 4 163.01982 p806.1 80.6 725.5 346.9 162.11980:724.1 79.0 645.1 321.0 140.5II737 2 811 6561 3281 144 0Ill757.3 86.2 671.1 333.2 148.5IV776.0 86.9 689.1 342.6 153.01981:791.6 85.9 705.7 352.6 156.5•I804.2 86.5 717.7 357.2 158.1III814.3 81.5 732.8 365.1 159.5IV822.4 81.8 740.5 366.4 163.01982:| 809.7 84.5 725.2 358.1 158.4|| 812.5 86.4 726.1 352.7 160.8111816.0 83.5 732.5 351.3 161.9IV P 806.1 80.6 725.5 346.9 162.1Retailtrade11.413.115.114.017 518.017.718.318.520.921.722.922.923.925 324.926 327.629.031.934.635.339042.844.350.555 764.874.174 682 993.71090121.0127.7140 7141.8121.3122 4126.1127J129.0134.2139.1140.7137.6140.2145.6141.8Other3.54.65.04.35.46.16.25.85.96.06.97.37.38.08.18.78.69.29.910.911.613.514.416.017.318.821225.031.333.335742.550.659.865.770.574.862.261563.465.767.668.369.170.571.172.473.774.8Finalsales •16018.319.619.521724.626,127.227.529.731.432.733.735.636938.841143.746.251.054.157.663 367.470.877.285 894.5102.0113.61241138.9159 5176.9194.92104221.5182.01812188.2194.9201.8203.3208.5210.4213.8215.5217.1221.5Inventory—finalsales ratioTotal4,504.514.444.034.534.494.184.053.913.863.953.903.773.713.693.553 523.443.383.343.463.463.373.483.453.383.373.794.263.873.823.743.783.993.983.913.643.984.074.023.983.923.963.913.913.793.773.763.64Nonfarm31 End of quarter.8 Quarterly totals at monthly rates. Business final sales equals final sales less gross product of households and institutions,government, and rest of the world, and includes a small amount of final sales by farms.3 Ratio based on total business final sales, which includes a small amount of final sales by farms.Note.—The industry classification of inventories is on an establishment basis and is based on the 1972 Standard IndustrialClassification (SIC) beginning 1948 and on the 1942 SIC prior to 1948.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.3 083.143 273.023 323.343183.153.053103.223163.013.022992.892 852.812.812.762.922.952 892.992.992.902833.083.653.303 333.313.313.523.543.523.283.543 623.573.543.503.533.513.523.393.373.373.28182
TABLE B-18.—Inventories and final sales of business in 1972 dollars, 1947-82[Billions of 1972 dollars, except as noted; seasonally adjusted]Year and quarterTotalFarmTotalInventories'ftonfarmManufacturingWholesatetradeRetailtradeOtherFinalsales 2Inventory—finalsales ratioTotalNonfarm3Fourth quarter:19471948194919501951195219531954195519561957..195819591960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972..1973197419751976197719781979198019811982 p1980:11IMIV1981:NHIIV1982:ItIllIV116.11216117.2127.71414145.7147.2145.0152 8158.61601158.3165.3168.8171.8179.7187.2194.3206.1222.92351244.1255.1258 9267.0277 2294.4306.0299 2307 0320.3336 3343.6338 6347.6339.1342 9342.3340.2338 6339 2342.3346.4347.6343.7342 6343 5339.125.726 726.227.529130.430 231.131530.731432.432.432.833.234.535 735.136.236.036 837.037.337 739.239 842.141.843 041140.840 843.241143.243.343 042.441.741141241.742.443 243.343.143343.390.594 891.0100.2112 3115.4117.1114.01212127.8128.7125.9132.9136.1138.6145.2151.5159.2169.9186.8198 3207.0217.82212227.8237 4252.3264.2256 3265 9279.5295 5300.4297 5304.4295.7299.9299.9298.4297.5298 0300.6304.0304.4300.5299.5300.2295.747.448 846.249.360 062.764560.964369.168 766.169.169.971.775.678 282.087.097.21041108.4112.8112 9111.8114 41218130.912711309134.1139 8145.0145 9148.4141.0146.6147.4146.3145.9146 9147.5149.41484146.4144.6143.3141.01 End of quarter.2 Quarterly totals at monthly rates. Business final sales equals final sales less gross product of households and institutions,government, and rest of world, and includes a small amount of final sales by farms.3 Ratio based on total business final sales, which includes a small amount of final sales by farms.N Ote.—The industry classification of inventories is on an establishment basis and is based on the 1972 Standard IndustrialClassification {SIC) beginning 1948 and on the 1942 SIC prior to 1948.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.16.017 217.219.219 720.120320.622122.822 522.524.625.125.726.628429.931.635.337 838.941.244045.947 950.454.152 255559.763 564.765 066.565.764.664.965.065.064665.165.466 565.365.866.165.718.320319.823.023 023.023.623.726.526.827.827.528.730.329.831.633.034.537.440.040.043.045.946.151.254.658.858.355.858 863.167.366.163.066.165.464.263.763.563.062.864.665.966.165.165.467.265.48.7867.88.79.59.68.78.88.49.29.89.810.510.711.411.412.012.813.814.316.316.817.918.219.020.521.420.921.120.822.624.924.623.623.423.624.523.823.623.623.623.423.323.423.623.723.723.633.234 434.636.939 841.643.043.145 646.547.148.149.750.753.155.358 360.966.167.570173.874.775.278.984.787.285.088.192.297.6103.0105.4105.0104.6105.5105.8102.7103.7105.0106.4105.2105.5104.6105.0104.6104.3105.53.503 533.383.463 553.513423.363 353.413403.293.333.333.243.253 213.193.123.303 363.313.413443.383.273.383.603.403.333.283.273.263.223.323.213.243.333.283.223.193.253.283.323.273.283.293.212.732 762.632.722 822.782 722.642 662.752 732.622.682.682 612.622 602.612.572.772 832.812.922 942.892 802.893.112.912.882.862.872.852.832.912.802.842.922.882.832.802.862.882.912.862.862.882.80183
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CONTENTSPageECONOMIC REPORT OF THE
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
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Monetary policy will play a critica
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Interest Rates and the U.S. Trade D
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THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
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CONTENTSPageCHAPTER 1. FROM RECESSI
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PageConclusions 122CHAPTER 6. REVIE
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CHAPTER 1From Recession to Recovery
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slowed somewhat in the 1970s regard
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nal GNP growth is reflected in a sl
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inflation. More specifically, the A
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inflation rate, or with a 12 percen
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1988, an increase of about one-four
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CHAPTER 2The Dual Problems of Struc
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frequently associated with poor hea
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Chart 2-2Distribution of Unemployme
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Chart 2-4Distribution of Unemployme
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These findings suggest several conc
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Wage RigidityA number of studies sh
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that these measures may have caused
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Most young people find jobs or leav
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to employers who hire youths. Tax c
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defined broadly to include individu
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ship between incomplete experience
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CHAPTER 3The United States in the W
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with 2.6 percent in the other Organ
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TABLE 3-1 .—Structure ofthe U.S.
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TABLE 3-2.—Trade balances by comm
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concentrate on doing what it does r
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the United States will depress pric
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Chart 3-3Real Exchange Rates Of Maj
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AN UNDERVALUED YEN?The explanations
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arily reduced the international com
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nancial markets. These transactions
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TABLE 3-6.—Economic performance b
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were undoubtedly a highly favorable
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of lenders that some debtors will n
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CHAPTER 4Increasing Capital Formati
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ate of net investment was required,
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able share in Japan and 56 percent
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During the 1970s, productivity grow
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MEASURING NATIONAL SAVINGDomestic s
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TAX RULES AND PERSONAL SAVINGMany e
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on consumption taxation might also
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Nevertheless, a number of economic
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tion permitted businesses to deprec
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A final problem under current tax l
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fleeted efforts to deal with proble
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egulation was probably not applicab
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Aeronautics Board, for example, the
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system resulted. Price controls, wh
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NGPA, both controlled and decontrol
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Price and allocation controls only
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nications industries through the re
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Several major pieces of legislation
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tempt to set cartel rates would be
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computer information and advertisin
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of computer technology to the payme
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trend by widening the sources and u
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changes. That is, members can arbit
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ceived to be a consequence of exces
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lowest point in the post-World War
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ing. Partly in response to the drop
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Chart 6-3Ratio of Consumer Installm
Page 137 and 138: Chart 6-4RATIO1.85Real Inventory/Sa
Page 139 and 140: percent increase in real defense pu
Page 141 and 142: 8.8 percent in 1981. These declines
Page 143 and 144: housing. Borrowing by the nonfinanc
Page 145 and 146: orous competitor for credit as usur
Page 147 and 148: 1982 their share had risen to over
Page 149 and 150: TABLE 6-9.—Economic outlook for 1
Page 151: A critical element in achieving hea
Page 155 and 156: LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
Page 157 and 158: Report to the President on the Acti
Page 159 and 160: ety of interagency and internationa
Page 161: ence J. Kotlikoff (Yale University)
Page 165 and 166: CONTENTSNATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDIT
Page 167 and 168: B-70. Mortgage debt outstanding by
Page 169 and 170: NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
Page 171 and 172: TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
Page 173 and 174: 19291933193919401941194219431944194
Page 175 and 176: TABLE B-5.—Changes in GNP and GNP
Page 181 and 182: TABLE B-ll.—Gross national produc
Page 183 and 184: TABLE B-13.—Output, costs, and pr
Page 185 and 186: TABLE B-14.—Personal consumption
Page 187: TABLE B-16.—Gross and net private
Page 191 and 192: TABLE B-20.—Relation of national
Page 193 and 194: TABLE B-21.—National income by ty
Page 195 and 196: TABLE B-22.—Sources of personal i
Page 197 and 198: TABLE B-24.—Total and per capita
Page 199 and 200: Year or quarterTotalTotalTABLE B-26
Page 201 and 202: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
Page 203 and 204: TABLE B-29.—Noninstitutional popu
Page 205 and 206: TABLE B-31.—Selected employment a
Page 207 and 208: TABLE B-33.—Civilian unemployment
Page 209 and 210: TABLE B-35.—Unemployment by reaso
Page 211 and 212: TABLE B-37.— Wage and salary work
Page 213 and 214: TABLE B-39.—Average weekly earnin
Page 215 and 216: TABLE B-41.—Changes in productivi
Page 217 and 218: TABLE B-43-—Industrial production
Page 219 and 220: TABLE B-45.—Capacity utilization
Page 221 and 222: TABLE B-46.—New construction acti
Page 223 and 224: TABLE B-48.—Nonfarm business expe
Page 225 and 226: TABLE B-50.—Manufacturers' shipme
Page 227 and 228: Year or monthAllitemsPRICESTABLE B-
Page 229 and 230: TABLE B-53.—Consumer price indexe
Page 231 and 232: TABLE B-55.—Changes in consumer p
Page 233 and 234: TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexe
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MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AND FINANCETAB
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TABLE B-63.—Commercial bank loans
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TABLE B-64.—Total funds raised in
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TABLE B-66.—Aggregate reserves of
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TABLE B-67 .—Bond yields and inte
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TABLE B-69.—Consumer installment
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TABLE B-71-—Mortgage debt outstan
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TABLE B-72.—Federal budget receip
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TABLE B-74.—Relation of Federal G
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TABLE B-76.—Federal Government re
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TABLE B-78.—State and local gover
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TABLE B-80.—Estimated ownership o
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CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCETABLE
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Year or quarterTABLE B-84.—Corpor
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TABLE B-86.—Relation of profits a
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TABLE B-88.—Determinants of busin
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TABLE B-9Q.~Current assets and liab
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TABLE B-92.—Common stock prices a
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AGRICULTURETABLE B-94.—Farm incom
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TABLE B-96.—Farm input use, selec
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TABLE B-98.—U.S. exports and impo
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INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-100
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TABLE B-101.—U.S. international t
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TABLE B-103.—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-105.—International invest
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TABLE B-107.— World trade balance
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TABLE B-109.—Growth rates in real
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TABLE B-lll.—Unemployment rate, a
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