Economic Report of the President

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TABLE B-44.—Industrial production indexes, selected manufactures, 1947-82[1967; -100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]Durable manufacturesNondurable manufacturesYear or monthTotalPrimarymetalsIronandsteelFabricatedmetalproductsNonelectricalmachineryElectricalmachineryTransportationequipmentTotalMotorVe arfd eSpartsLumberandproductsApparelproductsPrintingandpublishingChemicalsandproductsFoods1967 proportion1947194819491950195119521953195419551956195719581959I9601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982 p .1981:JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOct.NovDec1982:JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAucSeptOct..;;:::::Nov " ....Dec*6.5763.365.855.469.775 869.278 563.582.582.078 562.372.772 471.176 382.392.81021108.41000104.3113.8106.6100.2112.1126.7123.196.4109.7111 1119.9121.3102.3107.975.8114.1114 5114.9110.61119107.4109.4113.1108.6102.396.689.689.788 583.076.475.272.872.972.973 270 067165.94.2170.193.291.588 266.576.511174.277 384.395.9105 2108.4100 0103.2112.6104 796.11071122.3119.895.8104.8103 8113.2113.292.499.8108 71084108.0103.4105 698.599.7105.199.292.287.279.279 678 573.065.162.458.058.157 456 45415145.9349.950.845.856.159958.566 059.467.868.870 663.371.071169.475477.882.690897.2100 0105.6107.9102 4103.51121124.7124.2109.9123.91310141.6148.5134.1136.4114.8135 8137 6139.2139.5138 4139.3140.11400136.8133.8130.2126.1120 71214121.1119.1115.8115.0115 5114 3112 3108 5107 4106.59.1539.039.233.437.547 751.954 046.150.658.057 948.656.756955.462166.375.685 098.8100 0101.8109.3104 4100.2116 0133.7140.1125.1134.51436153.6163.7162.8171.2148.6167 3168 3169.2169.71721174.1176.71764173.9169.7167.9167.4160 9160 0157.3153.7150.0147.41471147 2144 9140 5138 0135.88.0522.223.021.629.629.834.039.034.739.943.142.839.247.651.654.862.964.768.481.797.9100.0105.5111.9108.1107.7122.2143.1143.8116.5134.8145 4159.4175.0172.8178.4169.2177.6174 9177.4178.8179.9180.1180.9182.6180.0179.6175.7170.7168.2172 9172.6172.2170.9170.8170.3169.7167.0165.7164 9164.59.2731.834.834.941.846.654.268.059.268.066.070.755.863.265.461.571.178.080.095.1102.0100.0111.1108.489.597.9108.2118.3108.797.4111.1122 2132.5135.4116.9116.1104.9117.41161119.5121.3123.7123.4119.8115.4114.2110.6106.1103.796 6102 0104.4105.9110.0111.6112.7107 0105.3100 8100 0103.74.5060.581.265.869.051.066.274.765.579.888.390.7115.9113.9100.0120.3116.592.3118.6135.8148.8128.2111.1142.01611169.9159.9119.0122.3109.8120.0119 9127.1130.7136 4137.5130.5123.1120.4113.8105.5100.490 498 6105.6110.7119.8124.0127.2116.7113.5103 01017108.81.6458.961.354.165.765.564.768.468.075.975.068869.979.374778.282.586.392.796.3100.0100.0105.5107.9105.6113.8120.8126.0116.2107.6123.2131.2136.3136.9119.3119.1127.4126 2125.6126.3126 2122.5122.9119.1113.2109.6104.7104.899 2104 9103.5106.2110.6112.2116.9120 31199117 2119 43.3157.860.359.764.363.166.367.266.473.375.074.972.880.181.782.285.589.192.297.499.9100.0102.9106.7101.4104.7109.4117.3114.3107.6125.7134.2134.2134.4127.0120.4123.81216120.2121.6122 6121.1122.6122.6122.5117.8113.8114.14.7243.345.446.648.949.749.752.054.159.563.265 463.968.271.071.373.977.882.687.994.6100.0103.2107.4107.0107.1112.7118.2118.2113.3122.5127 6131.5136.9139.6144.2144.3143.9144 8142.7141.61413143.1144.4146.1145.9145.6143.4145.3145 6146 4145.9144.2143.8142.6143 9145 3144 3142 61426144 07.7419.721.321.026.229 731.133.634,139.842.745246.654.356.459.265.771.878.887 895.71000109.5118.4120.4125.9143.6154.5159.4147.2170.9185 7197.4211.8207.1215.62189219 8218.5219.8220 6218.4221.5219.2216.3208.8204.6199.8196 72013200.3198.6193.6193.21941195 6196 4193 7192 88.7555.855.255.957.959 060.261462.766.370.171172.976.578.680.983486.490.492496.01000102.6106.1108.9112.8116,8120.9124.0123.4133.0138 8142,7147.5149.6152.11519152 5152.4151.9152 2151.3151.6151.9150.7151.4153.0152.815111517150.8149.7150.5151.01510150 7149 0150 6Source.* Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.212
TABLE B-45.—Capacity utilization rate in manufacturing, 1948-82FRB series >Year or quarterTotal Primarymanufacturiningprocess-194882.5 87.2194974.2 76.21950..82.8 88.5195185 8 90 2195285.4 84.91953892 89 41954 ..80.3 80.6195587.1 92.1195686.4 89.71957. ..83 7 84 7195875.2 75.4195981.9 83.4I96080.2 79.81961..77 4 77 9196281.6 81.61963 .83.5 83.8196485.6 87.8196589.6 91.1196691.1 91.4196786.9 85.71968.. . .87.1 87.7196986.2 88.51970 .. ..79.3 82 9197178.4 82.3197283.5 88.2197387.6 92.5197483.8 87.8197572.9 73.7197679.5 81.91977 ..819 84 0197884.4 86.9197985.7 88.1198079.1 78.5198178.5 78.41982"69.8 66.41978:j82.0 84.0II83 9 86 3III85 2 87 9IV86.4 89.51979:86.9 89.0||859 88 2III85 3 88 3IV84.4 86.91980:83.4 85.511 77.9 76.4HI75.9 73.1IV . .79.1 79.31981:I79.9 81.379.8 80.3HI ...79.3 79.4IV ..74.8 72.71982:71.6 69.1II 70.3 66.3III ..69.7 66.1IV p 67.6 64.3[Percent; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]Advancedprocessing80 073.379 883 485 989 380.184.384.583175.181.180.411181783.484.688.991.287.686 885.077 476.381.085.081.572.578.280883.084.379.478.571.680.982 783 784.685.784783 783.082.578.777.478 879.179.679.275.973.272.571.669.2Totalmanufacturing868684858581808386837781838483787684848384848382818076767878787672727169DurablegoodsCommerce series 2Nondurablegoods888783848478788285827681848483777584858385858482808074757877777470706865858685868683838586847982828382797883828283838282828178787879807875757674PrimaryprocesseprocessedAdvanced-goods goods89 8588 8587 8386 8487 8483 7982 8085 8289 8485 8276 7782 8183 8384 8484 8277 7876 7683 8484 8484 8285 8485 8484 8383 8183 8081 8075 7674 7778 7878 7878 7876 7671 7370 7366 7466 711 For description of the series, see "Federal Reserve Measures of Capacity and Capacity Utilization," February 1978.2 Quarterly data are for last month in quarter. Annual data are averages of the four indexes, except for 1965 (December index) and1966-67 (averages of June and December indexes). For description of the series, see "Survey of Current Business," July 1974.Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis).213
Page 5:
CONTENTSPageECONOMIC REPORT OF THE
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
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Monetary policy will play a critica
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Interest Rates and the U.S. Trade D
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THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
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CONTENTSPageCHAPTER 1. FROM RECESSI
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PageConclusions 122CHAPTER 6. REVIE
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CHAPTER 1From Recession to Recovery
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slowed somewhat in the 1970s regard
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nal GNP growth is reflected in a sl
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inflation. More specifically, the A
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inflation rate, or with a 12 percen
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1988, an increase of about one-four
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CHAPTER 2The Dual Problems of Struc
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frequently associated with poor hea
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Chart 2-2Distribution of Unemployme
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Chart 2-4Distribution of Unemployme
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These findings suggest several conc
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Wage RigidityA number of studies sh
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that these measures may have caused
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Most young people find jobs or leav
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to employers who hire youths. Tax c
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defined broadly to include individu
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ship between incomplete experience
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CHAPTER 3The United States in the W
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with 2.6 percent in the other Organ
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TABLE 3-1 .—Structure ofthe U.S.
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TABLE 3-2.—Trade balances by comm
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concentrate on doing what it does r
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the United States will depress pric
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Chart 3-3Real Exchange Rates Of Maj
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AN UNDERVALUED YEN?The explanations
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arily reduced the international com
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nancial markets. These transactions
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TABLE 3-6.—Economic performance b
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were undoubtedly a highly favorable
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of lenders that some debtors will n
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CHAPTER 4Increasing Capital Formati
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ate of net investment was required,
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able share in Japan and 56 percent
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During the 1970s, productivity grow
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MEASURING NATIONAL SAVINGDomestic s
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TAX RULES AND PERSONAL SAVINGMany e
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on consumption taxation might also
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Nevertheless, a number of economic
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tion permitted businesses to deprec
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A final problem under current tax l
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fleeted efforts to deal with proble
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egulation was probably not applicab
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Aeronautics Board, for example, the
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system resulted. Price controls, wh
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NGPA, both controlled and decontrol
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Price and allocation controls only
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nications industries through the re
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Several major pieces of legislation
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tempt to set cartel rates would be
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computer information and advertisin
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of computer technology to the payme
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trend by widening the sources and u
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changes. That is, members can arbit
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ceived to be a consequence of exces
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lowest point in the post-World War
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ing. Partly in response to the drop
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Chart 6-3Ratio of Consumer Installm
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Chart 6-4RATIO1.85Real Inventory/Sa
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percent increase in real defense pu
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8.8 percent in 1981. These declines
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housing. Borrowing by the nonfinanc
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orous competitor for credit as usur
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1982 their share had risen to over
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TABLE 6-9.—Economic outlook for 1
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A critical element in achieving hea
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Report to the President on the Acti
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ety of interagency and internationa
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ence J. Kotlikoff (Yale University)
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CONTENTSNATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDIT
Page 167 and 168: B-70. Mortgage debt outstanding by
Page 169 and 170: NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
Page 171 and 172: TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
Page 173 and 174: 19291933193919401941194219431944194
Page 175 and 176: TABLE B-5.—Changes in GNP and GNP
Page 181 and 182: TABLE B-ll.—Gross national produc
Page 183 and 184: TABLE B-13.—Output, costs, and pr
Page 185 and 186: TABLE B-14.—Personal consumption
Page 187 and 188: TABLE B-16.—Gross and net private
Page 189 and 190: TABLE B-18.—Inventories and final
Page 191 and 192: TABLE B-20.—Relation of national
Page 193 and 194: TABLE B-21.—National income by ty
Page 195 and 196: TABLE B-22.—Sources of personal i
Page 197 and 198: TABLE B-24.—Total and per capita
Page 199 and 200: Year or quarterTotalTotalTABLE B-26
Page 201 and 202: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
Page 203 and 204: TABLE B-29.—Noninstitutional popu
Page 205 and 206: TABLE B-31.—Selected employment a
Page 207 and 208: TABLE B-33.—Civilian unemployment
Page 209 and 210: TABLE B-35.—Unemployment by reaso
Page 211 and 212: TABLE B-37.— Wage and salary work
Page 213 and 214: TABLE B-39.—Average weekly earnin
Page 215 and 216: TABLE B-41.—Changes in productivi
Page 217: TABLE B-43-—Industrial production
Page 221 and 222: TABLE B-46.—New construction acti
Page 223 and 224: TABLE B-48.—Nonfarm business expe
Page 225 and 226: TABLE B-50.—Manufacturers' shipme
Page 227 and 228: Year or monthAllitemsPRICESTABLE B-
Page 229 and 230: TABLE B-53.—Consumer price indexe
Page 231 and 232: TABLE B-55.—Changes in consumer p
Page 233 and 234: TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexe
Page 239 and 240: MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AND FINANCETAB
Page 241 and 242: TABLE B-63.—Commercial bank loans
Page 243 and 244: TABLE B-64.—Total funds raised in
Page 245 and 246: TABLE B-66.—Aggregate reserves of
Page 247 and 248: TABLE B-67 .—Bond yields and inte
Page 249 and 250: TABLE B-69.—Consumer installment
Page 251 and 252: TABLE B-71-—Mortgage debt outstan
Page 253 and 254: TABLE B-72.—Federal budget receip
Page 255 and 256: TABLE B-74.—Relation of Federal G
Page 257 and 258: TABLE B-76.—Federal Government re
Page 259 and 260: TABLE B-78.—State and local gover
Page 261 and 262: TABLE B-80.—Estimated ownership o
Page 263 and 264: CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCETABLE
Page 265 and 266: Year or quarterTABLE B-84.—Corpor
Page 267 and 268: TABLE B-86.—Relation of profits a
Page 269 and 270:
TABLE B-88.—Determinants of busin
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TABLE B-9Q.~Current assets and liab
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TABLE B-92.—Common stock prices a
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AGRICULTURETABLE B-94.—Farm incom
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TABLE B-96.—Farm input use, selec
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TABLE B-98.—U.S. exports and impo
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INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-100
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TABLE B-101.—U.S. international t
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TABLE B-103.—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-105.—International invest
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TABLE B-107.— World trade balance
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TABLE B-109.—Growth rates in real
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TABLE B-lll.—Unemployment rate, a
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