United States yearbook - 1982 (1)

Economic Indicators 541
N o . 9 0 9 . C o m p o s i t e i n d e x e s o f E c o n o m i c C y c l i c a l In d i c a t o r s : 1 9 7 0 t o 1 9 8 1
[1981 figures are preliminary. See source for discussion of composite indexes. Minus sign (—) denotes decrease]
ITEM U nit 1970 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1961
LEADING INDICATORS
Composite Index.... 1 9 6 7 = 1 0 0 .. 104.4 131.8 122.1 114.8 128.8 136.4 141.8 140.1 131.2 133.1
N et business fo rm a tio n ,. 1 9 6 7 = 1 0 0 .. 107.1 115.5 111.2 108.8 117.2 126.5 132.9 131.7 121.1 113.4
Building p erm its, ’....... ...... 1 9 6 7 = 1 0 0 .. 118.1 157.1 92.2 80.9 111.8 144.9 145.4 123.6 96.7 80.0
C om m on sto c k prices, in d e x *.............................. 1 9 4 1 -4 3 =
1 0 0 ........... 83.2 107.4 82.8 86.2 102.0 9B.2 96.0 103.0 118.6 128.0
Initial claim s, unem p lo ym e n t in s u ra n c e ............. 1 ,0 0 0 ............ 292 2 4 0 351 466 381 368 338 379 4 8 0 446
C hange in sensitive p rices 14 P e rc e n t....... .4 1.9 2.5 .1 .9 .5 1.2 2.0 1.5 1.3
C hange In to ta l liquid a s s e ts 4.............................. P e rc e n t....... .5 1.0 .8 .8 .9 1.0 1.0 1.0 .7 .9
51
39.8
N e t change In invento rie s (1 9 7 2 d o l.) 4 6.......... B il. doJ.......... (z) 2 6 7 - 2 0 8 13 2 0 11 - 1 0 2
Plant and equip, co n tra c ts a n d o rd e rs
(1972 d o l.)............................................................... Bil. d o l.. . 149 149 117 132 146 171 180 166
N ew orders, m anufacturing, co n su m e r
Bil. d o l..........
B il. d o l.......... 650 789 7 5 5 756 847 804
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Composite Index.................................. 1 9 6 7 = 1 0 0 .. 108.8 127.4 125.3 115.5 123.7 131.3 140.1 145.1 140.3 141.3
Industrial p roduction in d e x ..................................... 1 9 6 7 = 1 0 0 .. 107.8 129.8 129.3 117.8 130.5 138.2 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0
M illion 70.9 76.8 78.3 76.9 79.4 82.5 86.7 90.4
Personal incom e le s s tra n s te rp a y m e n ts
(1972 Hoi ) ... Bil. d o l..........
B il. d o l.......... 1,380 1.677 1,662 1,558 1.671 1,792 ljs 8 2 L 9 2 2 l|8 5 6 1,873
LAGGING INDICATORS
C o m p o s ite In d e x ............................................. 1 9 6 7 = 1 0 0 .. 115.5 122.9 136.9 126.6 119.6 125.4 143.1 166.4 176.8 187.9
Index o f labor c o s t 8.................................................. 1 9 6 7 = 1 0 0 .. 112.5 117.4 127.9 143.6 145.2 154.1 164.2 175.8 195.0 211.0
Ratio, consum er in sta llm e n t c re d it to
12.7
7.9
8.6
Inventories, m fg, and tra d e (1*972 d o l, ) 0......... Bil. d o l.......... 197 22Q 227 217 235 2 4 6 258 265 263 269
Com m ercial and industrial lo a n s outstanding.. Bil. d o l.......... 85 98 117 120 110 114 128 149 165 182
2 Less than $500,000,000, ‘ New private housing units authorized. standard and Poor, 500 stocks. Producer price
index, crude materials. 4Weighted 4-term moving average placed at the terminal month of the span. “Production workers.
8Changes in book value. ’ See table 850. “Cost per unit of output in manufacturing. 0At end of period.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, B u s in e s s C o n d itio n s D ig e s t, monthly.
N o . 9 1 0 . I n t e r n a t i o n a l E c o n o m i c C o m p o s i t e I n d e x e s : 1 9 6 0 t o 1 9 8 1
[Average annual percent changes. 1970=. 100. Minus sign ( - ) denotes decrease]
YEARS
6
countries
excluding
U.S.
7
countries
United
States
Canada France Italy Japan
United
Kingdom
West
Germany
LEADING INDEX
1 9 6 0 -1 9 6 5 ..................................................... 4,5
1 9 0 5 -1 9 7 0 ..................................................... 2.7
1 9 7 0 -1 9 7 5 ..................................................... 3.3 3.0 2 J 6.2 1.6
1 9 7 5 -1 9 8 0 .....................................................
1 9 7 4 -1 9 7 5 ..................................................... 4.5 3.7
1 9 7 5 -1 9 7 6 ................... ................................. 10.3
1 9 7 6 -1 9 7 7 ..................................................... 2.8 4.6 5.4
1 9 7 7 -1 9 7 8 ..................................................... 5.3 4.6 3.8 7.6 4.7 4.6 7.0 1.4 5.4
1978-1979 11.0 6.0 1.9 11.1 10.0 6.9 20.8 2.8 6.4
1979-1980 5.0 .1 - 4 . 3 3.7 4.9 5.6 11.5 - 2 . 7 .5
1960-1981 .2 .9 1.5 3.1 3.7 4.8 - 4 . 3 1.2 - . 1
COINCIDENT INDEX
1960-1965 7.3 6.1
1 9 6 5 -1 9 7 0 ....................... 5.1
1 9 7 0 -1 9 7 5 ...... 3.3 2.4
1975-1980 3.4 3.9
1 9 7 4-1975 2.8 4.8 - 3 . 0
1975-1976 3.7 5.6
1976-1977 3.4 5.0 6.5 2 J
1977-1978 3.9 5.8 7.3 3.1 2 7 2.4 4.6 6.0 4.0
1978-1979 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.4 4.8 4.0 5.0 5.3
1979-1980 1.6 - . 8 - 2 . 7 1.1 2.0 5.0 1.3 - 2 . 8 3.1
1980-1981 - 1 . 0 .2 1.2 2.7 - 1 . 9 - . 8 .2 - 7 . 0 - . 2
Represents zero.
Source: Rutgers Center for International Business Cycle Research, Newark, New Jersey, In tern atio n al Econom ic Indicators.
monthly.