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Influenza Pandemic and its National Security andMacroeconomic Implications for JamaicaD. Ramjee Singh, Allan Wright and Hilton McDavidABSTRACTThe national security implications of pandemic influenza have immeasurable social costs, butalso important are the quantifiable economic costs. We estimated the possible macroeconomiceffects of the next influenza pandemic on the Jamaican economy and analyzed theeconomic impact of vaccine-based interventions. The estimated economic impact would beapproximately JA$2.6B, excluding disruptions to commerce and society. Loss in man hoursis estimated over a two (2) week work period at approximately 15M hours using an estimatedaverage attack rate of 17% across the leading economic sectors. With vaccination cost perpatient ranging between US$18 to as high as US$59, the overall cost of vaccinating membersof the estimated labour force who might be exposed to an attack is as high as JA$917M. Wetherefore project a net savings to the society if persons within the labour force are vaccinated.Critical among the labour force are public and corporate security. Public safety and publicorder are paramount during an outbreak of pandemic influenza.IntroductionThe current security environment in Jamaica can be characterised by multiple threats includingnarco-trafficking, terrorism in its diverse modalities, document fraud, and corruption. But of equalimportance is the marginalisation of large sectors of the community, increasing unemploymentand poverty with their strong links to the imminence of social disorder. An outbreak of pandemicinfluenza may very well be the catalyst for severe unrest in the society.In contrast to a flu pandemic, which occurs with regular and predictable frequency, an intenseinfluenza pandemic is unpredictable and in a sense it is unique. The incidence of a severe outbreak isintermittent and irregular because over the last one hundred years only three cases such catastropheshave been recorded: the “Spanish Flu” of 1918, the “Asian Flu” of 1957 and the “Hong Kong Flu” of1968 (Kilbourne, 2005). The prevailing period, however, was punctuated with other flu epidemics—such as Sars and the Avian flu—that failed to achieve global dimension.Kilbourne (2004), cited in Ramjee Singh et. al. (2010) pointed out that although the flu virusis not the most virulent of viruses, with fatality rate ranging only from 0.1-2 percent compared tochicken pox which has a mortality rate of 20-25 percent, it is different because its attack rate isabnormally high. He further noted that the accompanying level of morbidity resulting from a flupandemic becomes the conduit through which the society experiences severe disruptions in socialand macro-economic activities.Several researchers including Gebbie (2005) have subscribed to the idea that there is a generalconsensus among scientists. This is based on the 10-40 years life cycle thesis of the occurrence ofmajor pandemics and the continuous spreading of the highly pathogenic H5N1virus around the world(Taubenberger et. al., 2007), that the next pandemic is inevitable (Patriarca and Cox, 1997). It is notonly difficult to predict the actual timing and severity of the next pandemic but what is even moredifficult is to forecast its global reach and national impact.1The U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM), the U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies and theUniversity of the West Indies sponsored a Caribbean Community Pandemic Influenza Workshop, January 22-24, 2009, Kingston Jamaica. A versionof this paper was presented.Security and Defense Studies Review 2009/Edición 2009/ Edicão 2009/ Volume 9, Issues 1 & 2 81