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The ability of the health sector to effectively deal with a potential case load of 63,900 infectedpersons (18,900 + 45,000) requiring bed care must be judged against the background of some majorhealth indicators that are available. In 2007 the bed count available in the country was approximately4,846 while the bed occupancy rate was 56.6%, thus indicating some excess bed capacity within thesystem. The critical issue is whether the system will be in a position to cope in spite of the excess bedcapacity that exists. Without a doubt the sector will be hard pressed to satisfy the additional demandthat is anticipated. Therefore most likely decisions on bed space allocation will have to be made.Another macroeconomic implication for the country and its health sector that will emerge is thefiscal burden of footing the potential cost of vaccination that will be needed to fight the pandemic.As suggested by Meltzer, Cox and Fukuda (2000) the cost of vaccinating each patient could rangefrom a low as US$18 to a high of $59, depending on travel costs and the type of vaccine that is used.Using these estimates the paper will attempt to assess the cost implications of several possiblescenarios. One, if the decision is taken by the relevant authority to vaccinate the entire populationso as to minimize the adverse consequences from the influenza pandemic, the cost of this option—outlined in Table V—could vary, from a low of US$48M to a high of US$157M.Table IVCost of Vaccinating Entire PopulationUS$US$(2007) Lowest case scenario Highest case scenario2675800 $18.00 $59.00Total Population Cost $48,164,400.00 $157,872,200.00Two, if it is assumed that only persons requiring hospitalization (63,900) will receive the vaccine,then, the attendant cost is expected to vary from US $1.2 M (63,900 ×18) to US$ 3.8 M (93,900 ×59). Three, if the focus is on the average attack rate of 17% (see, Table VI), which will result insome 193,290 infected persons, the cost estimates would run from a low of US$8.2 M to a high ofUS$26.8M.Table VCost Using an Average Attack RateAverage Attack Rate Cost US$ Cost US$17.00% $18 $59193,290 infected persons $8,187,948.00 $26,838,274.00Four, if a decision is taken to protect only those members of the working force that are infected,the fiscal burden would fluctuate from a low of US$3M to as high of US$11M.Finally, an attempt is made to provide a breakdown by cost by sector for the employed labourforce (see, Table VI). As expected the sector with the greatest cost impact would be “Wholesale &Retail, Hotel and Restaurant Services” requiring in excess of US$ 1 M. The budgetary demand for“Community, Social and Personal Services” and “Transport and Communication” is anticipated torange from US$570(000) to US$424(000), respectively. Three other sectors—“Financing, Insurance,Real Estate and Business Services,” ”Manufacturing” and “Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing”—would each consume monetary resources in excess of US$300(000). The sectors that will make theleast demand on fiscal resources will be “Electricity, Gas and Water” and “Mining.”86Security and Defense Studies Review 2009/Edición 2009/ Edicão 2009/ Volume 9, Issues 1 & 2
Table VICost by SectorSectors Employed Est. Attack_Rate Cost US$Goods-ProducingSectorAgriculture, Forestry,Fishing2007 % Lower-costscenario402600Upper-cost scenario207000 10.00% $372,600.00 $1,221,300.00Mining 8200 15.00% $22,140.00 $72,570.00Manufacturing 69400 25.00% $312,300.00 $1,023,650.00Construction AndInstallationServices Sector 732200Transport, Storage andCommunicationFinancing, Insurance,Real Estate andBusiness ServicesCommunity, Social andPersonal ServicesElectricity Gas andWaterWholesale and Retail,Hotels and RestaurantservicesIndustry NotSpecified118000 10.00% $212,400.00 $696,200.0078600 30.00% $424,440.00 $1,391,220.0066800 25.00% $300,600.00 $985,300.00317200 10.00% $570,960.00 $1,871,480.007700 10.00% $13,860.00 $45,430.00261900 25.00% $1,178,550.00 $3,863,025.002200 10.00% $3,960.00 $12,980.00Total 1137000 $3,411,810.00 $11,183,155.00ConclusionBecause of data limitation and the uncertainty that circumscribe the outcomes of a pandemic theassumptions built into the paper are necessarily subjective. This notwithstanding the paper providesa measure of some of the potential adverse economic consequences that may result from an influenzapandemic.One such consequence is the fiscal burden relating to the provision of vaccines and other medicalsupplies. Obviously the cost of providing vaccines will be one part of the fiscal millstone inherentin facing such a challenge, the other part will be the expected reduction in tax revenue, which isestimated to be in the range of JA$1.04B, assuming a taxation rate of 40% of GDP.In addition to these fiscal implications, the institutional capacity of the public health care systemwill come under severe pressure to cope with increasing demand for health care in the short run. Tomitigate some of the potential problems the relevant authorities must channel resources to the sectorin an effort to improve its readiness. Failure to do so can create the potential for severe disturbancesin the society caused by further economic decline on an already heavily-burden society. Specialattention has to be paid to the security forces along with the other essential services, and prioritygiven to their vaccination. Otherwise, the risk of depleted and overtaxed ranks among the institutionsof law and order will significantly increase the potential for civil unrest.Security and Defense Studies Review 2009/Edición 2009/ Edicão 2009/ Volume 9, Issues 1 & 2 87
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6Security and Defense Studies Revie
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un tema de seguridad y defensa porq
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Los Intereses de la República Popu
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En el marco estratégico descrito e
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interés en participar en el yacimi
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al emplear personas locales en todo
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estadounidenses en el futuro, y por
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26Security and Defense Studies Revi
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Existe numerosa literatura que trat
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La Tabla 1.1, demuestra que el apor
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Page 46 and 47: Anexo 1PROTOCOLO DE ACUERDO QUE ACO
Page 48 and 49: OECD. “Models of Public Budgeting
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Page 52 and 53: DesprofesionalizaciónEn la región
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Page 77 and 78: BibliografíaAguila, Ernesto y Mald
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Page 88 and 89: BibliographyAlmond, D. and B. Mazum
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If successful, these infrastructure
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Security, Intelligence and the Role
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