Security and Defense Studies Review - Offnews.info

Table IIIImpact on Gross Domestic ProductSectors 2007 Output 2007_EmploymentGoods-Producing sector 85296 402.6Agriculture, Forestry,FishingSectoral GDPper man hourMan hours LossLoss inGDPMillion ($) 000's $000 000's Millions13316 207 0.04 1656.00 60.53Mining 13823 8.2 0.96 98.40 94.25Manufacturing 31528 69.4 0.26 1388.00 358.27Construction AndInstallationServices Sector 179224 732.2Transport, Storage andCommunicationFinancing, Insurance, RealEstate and Business ServicesCommunity, Social andPersonal Services26629 118 0.13 944.00 121.0435552 78.6 0.26 1886.40 484.8036832 66.8 0.31 1336.00 418.5523947 317.2 0.04 2537.60 108.85Electricity Gas and Water 10272 7.7 0.76 61.60 46.69Wholesale and Retail, Hotelsand Restaurant services72621 261.9 0.16 5238.00 825.24Industry Not Specified 23722 2.2 6.13 17.6 107.83Total 288242.00 1,137.000 9.04 15163.6 2626.04Assumptions:1) Estimates a 2-weekattack and a regular 40-hour work weekThe sectors that will be least affected are “Electricity, gas and water” (J$ 46 million), “Agriculture,forestry and fishing” (J$ 60.5 million) and “Mining” (J$ 94 million).Macro Economic ImplicationThe principal impact of an influenza pandemic is morbidity, which usually leads to excessive demandfor health services. This invariably leads to the overcrowding of health institutions during the lifespan of the pandemic. The nature of the impact depends on the severity of the pandemic. If we wereto assume a 10% hospitalization rate among infected workers, then the health care system wouldbe required to handle an additional 18.9(000) cases plus those outside of the labour force and inparticular the young, 0-14 age group and the elderly, (65 years and up) cohort. Both of these cohortsconsist of approximately 1 million persons who in the event of a pandemic may be considered ashigh risk cases. As a consequence it is possible to surmise that both the attack and hospitalizationrates among these groups are expected to be very high. Assuming an attack rate of 30% and ahospitalization rate of 15%, it would suggest that some 300,000 (out of 1 million) would be infected,while approximately 45,000 would require hospital care.Security and Defense Studies Review 2009/Edición 2009/ Edicão 2009/ Volume 9, Issues 1 & 2 85