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and restaurant services” is expected to lose 5.2 million hours, followed by “Community, social andpersonal services” (2.5 million) and “Transport, storage and communication” (1.9 million). Amongthe goods- producing sectors “Agriculture, forestry and fishing” (1.7 million) and “Manufacturing(1.4million) are the two sectors predicted to be badly affected.Table IIProjected Loss in Man hoursSectors 2007 Employment Attack Rate AffectedWorkersGoods-Producing sector 402.6Agriculture, Forestry,Fishing000's % 000's 000's207 10.00% 20.7 1656.00Mining 8.2 15.00% 1.23 98.40Manufacturing 69.4 25.00% 17.35 1388.00Construction AndInstallationServices Sector 732.2Transport, Storage andCommunicationFinancing, Insurance, RealEstate and Business ServicesCommunity, Social andPersonal Services118 10.00% 11.8 944.0078.6 30.00% 23.58 1886.4066.8 25.00% 16.7 1336.00317.2 10.00% 31.72 2537.60Electricity Gas and Water 7.7 10.00% 0.77 61.60Wholesale and Retail, Hotelsand Restaurant services261.9 25.00% 65.475 5238.00Industry Not Specified 2.2 10.00% 0.22 17.6Average Attack Rate 17%Total 1137 189.545 15163.6Manhours LossAssumptions1) Estimated attack rate,based on sectoral exposure2) Estimates a 2-week attackand a regular 40-hour workweekSource: PIOJThe estimates outlined in Table III indicate that the pandemic may cause a decline in the country’s grossdomestic product by approximately J$2.5 billion, or 3 percent below the 2007 level. Four sectors are expectedto record huge contraction in output. These are:1) Wholesale and retail, hotels and restaurants …………………………… $825.2 million2) Transport, storage and communication ………………………………… $484.8 million3) Financing, insurance, real estate and business services ……………….$418.6 million4) Manufacturing ……………………………………………………………$358.3 million84Security and Defense Studies Review 2009/Edición 2009/ Edicão 2009/ Volume 9, Issues 1 & 2
Table IIIImpact on Gross Domestic ProductSectors 2007 Output 2007_EmploymentGoods-Producing sector 85296 402.6Agriculture, Forestry,FishingSectoral GDPper man hourMan hours LossLoss inGDPMillion ($) 000's $000 000's Millions13316 207 0.04 1656.00 60.53Mining 13823 8.2 0.96 98.40 94.25Manufacturing 31528 69.4 0.26 1388.00 358.27Construction AndInstallationServices Sector 179224 732.2Transport, Storage andCommunicationFinancing, Insurance, RealEstate and Business ServicesCommunity, Social andPersonal Services26629 118 0.13 944.00 121.0435552 78.6 0.26 1886.40 484.8036832 66.8 0.31 1336.00 418.5523947 317.2 0.04 2537.60 108.85Electricity Gas and Water 10272 7.7 0.76 61.60 46.69Wholesale and Retail, Hotelsand Restaurant services72621 261.9 0.16 5238.00 825.24Industry Not Specified 23722 2.2 6.13 17.6 107.83Total 288242.00 1,137.000 9.04 15163.6 2626.04Assumptions:1) Estimates a 2-weekattack and a regular 40-hour work weekThe sectors that will be least affected are “Electricity, gas and water” (J$ 46 million), “Agriculture,forestry and fishing” (J$ 60.5 million) and “Mining” (J$ 94 million).Macro Economic ImplicationThe principal impact of an influenza pandemic is morbidity, which usually leads to excessive demandfor health services. This invariably leads to the overcrowding of health institutions during the lifespan of the pandemic. The nature of the impact depends on the severity of the pandemic. If we wereto assume a 10% hospitalization rate among infected workers, then the health care system wouldbe required to handle an additional 18.9(000) cases plus those outside of the labour force and inparticular the young, 0-14 age group and the elderly, (65 years and up) cohort. Both of these cohortsconsist of approximately 1 million persons who in the event of a pandemic may be considered ashigh risk cases. As a consequence it is possible to surmise that both the attack and hospitalizationrates among these groups are expected to be very high. Assuming an attack rate of 30% and ahospitalization rate of 15%, it would suggest that some 300,000 (out of 1 million) would be infected,while approximately 45,000 would require hospital care.Security and Defense Studies Review 2009/Edición 2009/ Edicão 2009/ Volume 9, Issues 1 & 2 85
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Document: Speech on “Security, In
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un tema de seguridad y defensa porq
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Los Intereses de la República Popu
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En el marco estratégico descrito e
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interés en participar en el yacimi
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ehén de los FARC, escribe de siete
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estadounidenses en el futuro, y por
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26Security and Defense Studies Revi
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Existe numerosa literatura que trat
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La Tabla 1.1, demuestra que el apor
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Los cuestionamiento a este modelo d
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Page 46 and 47: Anexo 1PROTOCOLO DE ACUERDO QUE ACO
Page 48 and 49: OECD. “Models of Public Budgeting
Page 50 and 51: proyectos nacionales y democrático
Page 52 and 53: DesprofesionalizaciónEn la región
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Page 77 and 78: BibliografíaAguila, Ernesto y Mald
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Page 88 and 89: BibliographyAlmond, D. and B. Mazum
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Keynote Speech by Dr. Frank O. Mora
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If successful, these infrastructure
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Security, Intelligence and the Role
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Clearly, security, intelligence and
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Contratapa(Contratapa offers, in a
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efforts have become intertwined; fo
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comprensión de sus valores y cultu
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