book1

Table 2.1 : An Interna� onal Comparison, As of 2009
S.
N.
22
Country
Popula�
on
(in
million)
GNI (in
US$
billion)
GNI
per
capita
(US$)
Econ.
Growth
Rate
(In %)*
Changing paradigms of aid eff ec� veness in Nepal
Popn.
Below
na� onal
poverty
line %
External
Debt
(US $
billion)
FDI net
infl ow (US
$ million)
1. Nepal 29.0 13.0 440 4.5 **31.0 3.7 38.0
2. Bangladesh 162.0 95.0 590 6.3 40.0 23.6 674.0
3. Pakistan 170.0 173.0 1,020 2.8 32.6 49.3 2,387.0
3. India 1,155.0 1,369.0 1,180 8.2 28.6 230.6 34,577.0
5. Sri Lanka 20.0 40.0 1,990 6.9 22.7 15.1 404.0
6. China 1,331.0 4,778.0 3,590 9.6 ***15.9 378.2 78,193.0
Source: World Development Report, 2011; and IMF: World Economic Outlook, April
2011; * Es� mated Economic Growth Rates for 2011, which is 8% for Afghanistan,
6.5% for Bhutan and 6% for Maldives. Nepal’s actual growth rate is 3.5% for FY
2010/11; **According to UNDP/Oxford Research Team (2010) popula� on below
absolute poverty line is es� mated to be as high as 65% in Nepal; *** Popula� on
below $1.25 a day.
For example, GNI of Sri Lanka (US$ 40 billion), Bangladesh (US$ 95 billion),
Pakistan (US$ 173 billion), India (US$ 1,369 billion), and China (US$ 4,778
billion) is es� mated to be fairly higher when compared with Nepal. Similarly,
GNI per capita of Bangladesh (US$ 590), Pakistan (US$ 1,020), India (US$
1,180), Sri Lanka (US$ 1,990) and China (US$ 3,590) have dis� nctly remained
higher the GNI per capita of Nepal. As of 2009 the share of agriculture,
industry and services sectors in Nepal is es� mated to be 34 percent, 16
percent and 50 percent of GDP respec� vely (WDR, 2011).
Current Economic Situa� on
In recent � mes, Nepal's economic growth rate is inordinately low
confi ned to 3.5 percent against the target of 5.5 percent as envisaged in
the 3-Year Interim Development Plan (TYIDP), 2010-2012 (appendix 2) and
4.5 percent es� mated in the budget for FY 2010/11 (Budget Speech, 2010).
Despite poor economic performance in the past, growth rate is es� mated
to remain at 5 percent in 2011 (Budget Speech, FY 2011/12). The year on
year (y-o-y) infl a� on is hovering around 9.6 percent against the target of 7
percent specifi ed in the Monetary Policy formulated by Nepal Rastra Bank
(NRB) for FY 2010/2011 and that was revised to 9 percent during the midterm
evalua� on (NRB, July 2011). The recent macroeconomic indicators
exhibit that Nepal's merchandise exports to India and overseas have declined
resul� ng in a huge trade defi cit amoun� ng to Rs. 330.34 billion, which is
es� mated to be 25 percent of GDP and surpassed the size of budget for FY
2010/11. During the period magnitude of merchandise imports marginally
swelled-up compared to last year against a diminu� ve exports a� ribu� ng to