UNIT – I Lesson 1 HRM – AN OVERVIEW Lesson Outline Nature of ...

The following techniques are usually used.
1. Managerial judgement method
2. Delphi Technique
3. work-study technique
4. Ratio-trend analysis
5. Statistical and mathematical models.
Managerial Judgement Method
This is a conventional method of human resources forecasting method. In this
method mangers prepare the forecast of human resource needs of various categories in
their own departments on their past experiences. This method can be applied in two
alternatives, top-down approach or bottom-up approach. In top-down approach, top
management prepares human resource plan for the organization as a whole with the
assistance of HR department. This plan is circulated among various departments with an
advice to make necessary amendments whenever required with justification. After
receiving the document from various departments, human resource needs of various
departments are finalized usually in a committee meeting of department heads.
Delphi Technique
This technique is named after the ancient Greek Oracle at the city of Delphi where
greek used to pray for information about the future. In the present world Delphi
Technique is used in group decision making in small groups. The problem and questions
relating to HR requirement and related issues will be circulated to the expert group. Their
suggestions and replies will be sent to others and if needed queries made and final decision
taken. This exercise is repeated until some consensus is reached. Delphi technique is
quite useful where the problem cannot be solved by using analytical technique but its
solution requires subjective judgements on a collective basis.
Delphi technique can be used for forecasting human resource needs in two forms.
First, it can be used to know the trends for changing job profile and consequently, the
changing personnel profile across the country or at international level secondly, this
technique can be used to solicit views of experts in different functional areas of an
organization about the changing profile of personnel in their respective departments in the