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Review <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>literature</strong> on basic education in Nigeria2.3 EnrolmentAs highlighted in <strong>the</strong> Introduction, <strong>the</strong> national primary school-age population is estimated at around 20million for those aged 5–9 and 16 million for those aged 10–14. For <strong>the</strong> 5–9 age group, <strong>the</strong> female-tomaleratio is 48% to 52% while for <strong>the</strong> 10–14 age group <strong>the</strong> ratio is 47% to 53%. In all, <strong>the</strong> primaryschool-age population (6–12) accounts for about 20% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> total national population figure (FME2009a). However, <strong>the</strong>re are no reliable age-specific data available to help determine <strong>the</strong> net enrolmentratio (NER) (FME 2005), although <strong>the</strong> 2008 NDHS gives estimations <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> net attendance ratio (NAR)(see Section 2.4).The EMIS data shown in Table 2.1 suggest that nationally <strong>the</strong>re has been an overall decline in enrolmentin public primary schools between 2006 and 2010, except in <strong>the</strong> North West where <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong> bothgirls and boys enrolled in school has risen and <strong>the</strong> gender gap has narrowed. The increase in <strong>the</strong> NorthWest might in part be attributable to <strong>the</strong> fact that several states in <strong>the</strong> region have been <strong>the</strong> focus <strong>of</strong>recent development efforts (e.g. ESSPIN and <strong>the</strong> Girls’ Education Project (GEP)) aimed at improvingenrolments, especially <strong>of</strong> girls. Conversely, <strong>the</strong> drop in enrolments in public primary schools in sou<strong>the</strong>rnand central states might be due, at least in part, to <strong>the</strong> migration <strong>of</strong> some children to <strong>the</strong> low-fee privatesector in urban areas, as reported in a number <strong>of</strong> studies (e.g. Urwick 2002; Larbi et al. 2004; Tooley etal. 2005; Härmä 2011 a, b and c; see also Section 7.3).Table 2.1 Pupil enrolment* in public primary schools 2006/07 to 2009/102006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10Zone F M Total F M Total F M Total F M TotalNorth WestNorth EastNorth Central**South WestSouth South***South EastTotal1.91(39.7)1.41(42.1)1.78(47.0)1.71(50.6)1.54(50.4)1.02(49.6)9.38(45.2)2.91(60.3)1.94(57.9)2.01(53.0)1.67(49.4)1.52(49.6)1.04(50.4)11.09(54.2)4.83(100)3.35(100)3.80(100)3.38(100)3.06(100)2.06(100)20.47(100)2.00(40.5)1.29(43.3)1.70(46.8)1.49(50.6)1.22(36.5)1.12(49.4)8.81(43.9)2.94(59.5)1.69(56.7)1.93(53.2)1.45(49.4)2.12(63.5)1.14(50.6)15.22(56.1)4.94(100)2.97(100)3.63(100)2.94(100)3.34(100)2.26(100)20.08(100)2.23(41.8)1.35(41.7)1.46(47.7)1.32(50.7)1.24(50.8)1.06(49.7)8.67(46.04)3.10(59.2)1.90(58.3)1.60(52.3)1.28(49.3)1.20(49.2)1.08(50.3)10.16(55.06)5.33(100)3.25(100)3.06**(100)2.60(100)2.44***(100)2.14(100)18.82(100)2.67(43.5)1.41(44.1)1.47(46.6)1.41(50.5)1.04(50.3)0.83(49.2)8.83(46.35)3.47(56.5)1.79(55.9)1.69(53.4)1.38(49.5)1.03(49.7)0.86(50.8)10.22(53.65)6.14(100)3.20(100)3.16**(100)2.79(100)2.07(100)1.69(100)19.04(100)* Numbers in millions.** Numbers missing from North Central for Benue, Nasarawa and Plateau states for 2008/09 and Plateau State for 2009/10.*** Numbers missing from <strong>the</strong> South South for 2008/09 from Bayalesa and Edo states.Note: Numbers may not add up perfectly due to rounding.Source: FME (2011b)An alternative explanation might relate to <strong>the</strong> general unreliability <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> data, ei<strong>the</strong>r current orprevious. The absence <strong>of</strong> data for several states in 2008/09 would explain, at least in part, <strong>the</strong> huge dropin enrolments in 2008/09, for example.One fairly consistent gender pattern is that more girls than boys attend public primary school in <strong>the</strong>South West and South South; <strong>the</strong>se gender ratios have remained fairly steady across <strong>the</strong> four-yearperiod while in <strong>the</strong> South East <strong>the</strong>re are only slightly more boys than girls in enrolled in public primaryschools.EDOREN – Education Data, Research and Evaluation in Nigeria 11
Review <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>literature</strong> on basic education in Nigeria2.3.1 Transition to JSSIn contrast, as Table 2.2 shows, <strong>the</strong>re has been a steady increase in enrolment at government JSSsacross <strong>the</strong> same four-year period, from almost 3 million in 2006/07 to over 4 million in 2009/10.Table 2.2 Pupil enrolment* in public junior secondary schools, 2006–2010Zone 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10F M Total F M Total F M Total F M TotalNorth West197.4(30.8)443. 5(69.2)640.9(100)227.1(33.9)443.2(66.1)670.3(100)249.1(32.9)508.9(67.1)758.0(100)309.8(34.8)580.7(65.2)890.5(100)North East148.4(41.2)211.5(58.8)359.9(100)153.4(38.6)243.0(61.4)396.4(100)180.6(36.7)310.9(63.3)491.5(100)167.1(37.4)280.1(62.6)447.2(100)NorthCentral*219.1(41.7)306.3(58.3)525.4(100)180.8(42)249.9(58)430.7(100)172.3(41.5)243.4(58.5)415.7**(100)262.9(42.7)352.5(57.3)615.4**(100)South West377.3(49.8)380.7(50.2)758.0(100)483.5(49.8)487.6(50.2)971.1(100)522.0(49.7)528.8(50.3)1,050.8(100)526.4(50.7)511.1(49.3)1,037.5(100)SouthSouth***175.0(50.3)170.4(49.3)345.4(100)219.1(50.3)216.1(49.7)435.2(100)–– –– – ***290.6(51)279.6(49)570.2(100)South East178.6(52.5)161.8(47.5)340.4(100)287.2(52.6)259.2(47.4)546.4(100)315.7(53.2)277.3(46.8)593.0(100)307.8(52.7)276.5(47.3)584.3(100)Total1,296.1(43.6)1,674.0(56.4)2,969.9(100)1,551.3(44.9)1,899.0(56.1)3,451.1(100)1,599.9(45.7)2,023.4(54.3)3,309.0***(100)1,864.9(45.2)2,280.6(54.8)4,165.2(100)* Numbers in thousands** Numbers missing from North Central for Plateau State for 2008/09 and 2009/10.*** Data unusable from <strong>the</strong> South South in 2008/09 as <strong>the</strong>re was an obvious input error for Rivers State and <strong>the</strong> totals did notadd up.Note: Numbers for females and males may not add up perfectly due to rounding.Source: FME (2011b)This increase is consistent with <strong>the</strong> fall in dropout rates from Primary 6 reported by <strong>the</strong> NEDS between2004 and 2010, meaning that more children are making <strong>the</strong> transition from primary school to JSS (NPCand ICF Macro 2009; NPC and RTI International 2011), and is likely to be linked to <strong>the</strong> steady increase ingovernment provision <strong>of</strong> JSS, from around 8,200 schools in 2005/06 to almost 12,700 in 2008/09 (FME2011b). This increase occurs even in <strong>the</strong> sou<strong>the</strong>rn zones, and may be explained by pupils re-joining <strong>the</strong>government sector after attending private primary schools. The drop in <strong>the</strong> overall enrolment total in2008/09 is explained by <strong>the</strong> lack <strong>of</strong> usable data for <strong>the</strong> South South. Overall, <strong>the</strong> gender gap hasdecreased, although a significantly higher proportion <strong>of</strong> boys are studying at JSS than girls, with a muchhigher proportion <strong>of</strong> girls studying at this level in <strong>the</strong> south than in <strong>the</strong> north.Table 2.3 compares <strong>the</strong> actual transition rates for girls and boys for 2006/07 with those for 2009/10,which confirms <strong>the</strong> overall improvement in transition rates nationally and across <strong>the</strong> zones, except in<strong>the</strong> North West, which has remained steady. The zonal averages, however, mask considerabledifferences among states, although some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> extreme differences in rates raise questions about <strong>the</strong>reliability <strong>of</strong> some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> data. The striking increase in transition rates in <strong>the</strong> South West is inflated bytransition rates <strong>of</strong> well over 100% for Lagos, Ekiti and Ogun states in 2009/10, which, as highlightedabove, suggest a large influx back into <strong>the</strong> public sector from <strong>the</strong> mushrooming larger private primarysector in those states (see Härmä 2011 a, b and c; see also Section 7.3). This <strong>the</strong>refore gives us less <strong>of</strong> anindication <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> proportion <strong>of</strong> Primary 6 pupils in public schools that move on to JSS. The equallystriking increase in <strong>the</strong> transition rate among girls in <strong>the</strong> South South is due to improbably hightransition rates in Akwa Ibom and Edo states.EDOREN – Education Data, Research and Evaluation in Nigeria 12
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