Ontario Power Generation's Response to the Joint Review

Attachment 1 to OPG letter, Albert Sweetnam to Dr. Stella Swanson, “Deep Geologic Repository Project for Low and Intermediate Level Waste – Submission of
Responses to the Final Sub-set of Package #4 Information Requests”, CD#: 00216-CORR-00531-00143.
IR# EIS Guidelines
Section
Information Request and Response
Data Limitations
1. The Input/Output calculations were derived using multipliers from the Statistics Canada, Interprovincial
Input/Output model. These multipliers provide an order-of-magnitude representation of the Provincial
economy. The multipliers used were the most recent available at the time and reflected conditions in the 2007
economy.
2. The direct labour assumptions and project costs used to input to the input/output calculations were derived
from the NWMO. They reflected the best assumptions available on project cost and associated direct labour
force complement at the time.
3. The Input/Output results are produced at the Provincial level and therefore, to determine local effects, an
allocation exercise was required. The input/output results were allocated to the Local Study Area (LSA),
Regional Study Area (RSA) and outside study areas based on historic workforce data derived from an
employee survey of the Western Waste Management Facility and from NWMO’s estimates of where major
project expenditures might be made.
4. The calculation of municipal impacts was formulated around population projections for the LSA and RSA
municipalities. The assumptions behind these population assumptions were derived from available municipal
documents which, for the most part, gave estimates out to 2031. Beyond 2031 population forecasts were
produced by extrapolating compound annual growth rates experienced in the study area municipalities during
the period 2006 to 2031 out to 2062.
5. Once the population forecasts were derived, the impacts on municipal services were calculated using 2009 per
capita service ratios.
6. Tax Assessment impacts were derived using the population projections and per capita tax assessment
information derived from the 2008 Financial Information Returns for each of the study area municipalities.
7. The effects tables provided in the EIS report provide an annual average estimate of effect for each of the
project phases (i.e., site preparation and construction, operation and decommissioning).
Natural Variability
The model describes human economic behavior. It is an extrapolation based on current economic conditions. There is
inherent variability in the evolution of social and economic conditions that is likely larger on more local scales than
regional scales.
Model Error
The economic model is a forecast model that uses available socio-economic information to anticipate likely project
effects going forward. The results are order of magnitude and reflect reasonable estimates of what might happen in the
future given past trends, knowledge of current local conditions and assumptions the project over its lifecycle in terms of
labour requirements and expenditures for goods and services. However, the results could be influenced if social and
economic conditions going forward are dramatically different than socio-economic conditions at the time of writing.
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