Biofuels in Perspective

52 Biofuels
sources such as municipal solid waste. But gasification is a relatively mature technology
with substantially less opportunity for cost improvement. Federal investment in gasification
has been limited, and is expected to continue to emphasize biochemical processing.
3.6 The Future
While the US ethanol industry is currently enjoying halcyon days, much must still be
accomplished if the United States is to meet the President’s goal of 60 billion gallons of
biofuels production and 30 % displacement of petroleum by 2030.
Effects of ethanol production on food and feed prices may continue to be a concern as
starch ethanol production expands. Short-term price increases at various points along both
the food and fuel value chains can be expected until markets stabilize.
Producers of corn and ethanol will need to continue to work to ensure that production
minimizes environmental impacts, particularly with respect to fertilizer run-off, which is
suspected to have contributed significantly to hypoxia and eutrophication in the Gulf of
Mexico. A growing number of aquifers in the Midwest are thought to be under stress from
water consumption for corn irrigation and ethanol production, highlighting the importance
of efficient use and recycling of resources.
Sustainable methods of production and collection must be adopted for all biomass crops
as cellulosic ethanol production evolves. Minimum-till or no-till cropping practices are
gradually being adopted, and will need to be increased in order to reduce soil runoff if
residues are to be collected. 14 Sustainable production systems for switchgrass and other
potential dedicated energy crops must also be developed in conjunction with agricultural
producers.
Nationwide, substantial investments in ethanol infrastructure are also needed. At the farm
level, one-pass harvesting equipment must be developed for collection of crop residues.
Advanced soil carbon models must be available to farmers to determine how much residue
can be sustainably collected for use as biorefinery feedstock. Farmers transitioning to
dedicated energy crops will also need assistance in establishing their crops, since many
dedicated energy crops will likely require several years’ growth before harvesting can begin.
Expanded regional rail networks will be needed to transport cellulosic feedstocks – or
liquid sugars, if processing of biomass occurs at the farm level. And upgrades to existing
pipeline networks – or dedicated ethanol pipelines – will be needed to transport ethanol to
urban markets.
Biorefineries will also need to evolve to incorporate principles of industrial ecology and
to produce more than just ethanol. Just as today’s petroleum refineries produce a wide
range of chemicals and other products in additional to gasoline, future biorefineries must
evolve to extract high-value chemical co-products as well. Integrated biorefineries that
produce a range of biofuels, bio-chemicals and biobased products will drive down the cost
of bio-ethanol and better ensure its success in the transportation marketplace.
Federal research and assistance in commercializing cellulosic biofuels will continue to
be needed. Research to improve enzyme technology will need to be conducted in parallel
with commercialization, and pioneer cellulosic ethanol producers will need some assurance
that a market for cellulosic ethanol will exist no matter what happens with unstable oil
prices. Tax incentives or other incentives to fuel blenders will be needed to ensure that the
first commercial cellulosic ethanol makes its way into the fuel supply.