watervulnerability

for evaluations conducted in Regions 1, 2, 3, 4, and 6. The
GMUG NFs used projections from CIG, and additional
projections for the Upper Gunnison River (Barsugli
and Mearns Draft 2010). In retrospect, providing data
available from CIG at the outset would have expedited
some analyses and greatly assisted the process.
Increases in temperature (ºF) Percent change in precipitation
B1 2050 B1 2080 A1B 2050 A1B 2080 B1 2050 B1 2080 A1B 2050 A1B 2080
January 2.70 4.42 4.38 6.00 (0.69) 8.85 5.98 1.68
February 3.50 4.01 4.46 5.19 (0.97) (4.50) (2.54) (1.24)
March 3.46 4.25 4.70 5.74 (0.75) (4.30) 0.63 (5.17)
April 2.99 4.46 4.49 5.93 5.42 2.45 (1.19) 0.67
May 3.68 4.48 5.02 7.16 (8.46) (1.28) (6.26) (10.68)
June 3.90 4.64 5.34 7.04 (5.87) (7.17) (8.76) (12.37)
July 4.14 4.98 5.40 7.28 (8.34) (2.70) (7.39) (12.84)
August 4.13 5.04 5.21 6.84 1.20 6.97 1.52 2.61
September 4.23 5.49 5.35 7.45 (0.49) 1.10 (3.47) 1.32
October 4.12 5.46 5.29 7.15 (13.81) (8.17) (9.75) (8.17)
November 3.52 4.36 4.93 6.15 0.91 (5.08) (7.93) (8.75)
December 3.18 4.40 4.11 5.97 5.20 (9.39) (1.69) (1.68)
Annual 3.63 4.67 4.89 6.49 (2.22) (1.93) (3.40) (4.55)
Table 2. Modeled exposure data from the Ouachita NF assessment showing monthly and annual changes in temperature
and precipitation derived from the B1 and A1B climate scenarios and provided by The Nature Conservancy Climate
Change Wizard. Decreases in precipitation are in parentheses.
Legend
2000 - 2009
Resurrection Creek
649 - 958
958 - 1,099
1,099 - 1,187
1,187 - 1,308
1,308 - 1,438
Mean 985.28
Legend
9 | ASSESSING THE VULNERABILITY OF WATERSHEDS TO CLIMATE CHANGE
2020 - 2029
Resurrection Creek
683 - 998
998 - 1,099
1,099 - 1,187
1,187 - 1,308
1,308 - 1,438
Mean 1,017.5
In Region 2, the White River NF used projections supplied
by the Colorado Water Conservation Boards (Ray et al.
2008, Spears et al. 2009). The Shasta-Trinity NFs (Region
5) utilized the World Climate Research Programme's
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3
(CMIP3) multi-model dataset. This is a downscaled
global temperature modeling output available from the
University of California, Santa Barbara. The Ouachita
Legend
2050 - 2059
Resurrection Creek
775 - 998
958 - 1,099
1,099 - 1,187
1,187 - 1,308
1,308 - 1,438
Mean 1,115.62
Figure 7. An example of a downscaled, gridded projection of future climate conditions. The maps display projected
precipitation (mm). The projections are based on the A1B model. The figure is from the Chugach NF WVA.