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Umatilla National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Pacific Northwest Region (R6) Sensitivity (Resiliency, Watershed Condition, and Non-climate Stressors) Watershed sensitivity was evaluated by combining factors representing watershed resiliency, base watershed condition, and non-climatic stressors. Resiliency Factors, or “Buffers” to climate change • Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems – number of springs and wetlands and overall presence of GDEs, including springs, wetlands, rivers, and lakes per HU12, rated (also Value indicator) • Watershed restoration investment – 3 categories: 0= limited or no active restoration; 1= sustained ongoing actions to improve conditions and habitat; and 2=Focus watersheds with Action Plans, more than 50% percent complete. Resiliency factors considered but not used in this iteration include: elevation, aspect, relief ratio, geology, stream density, stream type, stability (mapped landslides and stability class), and other groundwater indicators (meadows, permeability, faults, and alluvial deposits). Watershed Condition We used available data from the Blue Mountains Forest Plan revision watershed condition model (Gecy file “KWS_August2010”). Watershed condition scores (-1 to +1) from “Netweaver” decision support model analysis, incorporated the following factors: • road density, road gradient, miles in buffer as % stream mile • range condition (AUMs/acre, compared range use based on 2009 AUMs compared to forage production • forest vegetation as weighted departure of stand condition, and • aquatic habitat attributes from stream survey (LWD, pools, shade, and riparian type). The score is the average of upslope (roads, range, and forest vegetation) and habitat (range-riparian). Scores for Umatilla HUC-6 subwatersheds range from -0.5937 to +0.6473. Watershed Condition Rating (See figure to right) Watershed Condition Class FPR Model Rating # HUC-6 All # HUC-6 UNF >25% 1. Good >0.2 22 14 2. Fair -0.2 to 0.2 101 62 3. Poor
Umatilla National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Pacific Northwest Region (R6) Stressors or factors that may exacerbate climate change • Mines: coded 1= mine(s) shows no evidence of impacting water quality; 2= mine(s) has the potential to impact water quality; 3= mine(s) is actively impacting water quality. • Ditches, reservoirs: present/absent • Fire: percent acres burned last 10 years coded 0=0% watershed burned; 1=50% burned in the last 10 years. • Developments and floodplain roads: Campgrounds and developments coded 0=none,\; 1=1,\; 2>1. Roads coded 0=0 miles; 1=1-10 miles; 2=>10-20 miles; 3=>20 miles (also under Values). Overall sensitivity scoring was the simple sum of weighted factors for watershed condition, resiliency, and stressors, binned into 5 classes per HU12: from 1=LOW Sensitivity (High resiliency) to 5=HIGH Sensitivity (Low resiliency) We used a categorical matrix approach to combining and categorizing water resource value and sensitivity into “Risk-Value” groups. Exposure A growing body of published research in the Pacific Northwest shows regional trends in historic temperatures (warming), precipitation, declining snowpack, and streamflow (Mote 2003; Knowles et al. 2006; Hamlet and Lettenmaier 2007). Exposure represents the pressure or change imposed by future climate systems outside the historic range of variability. We used University of Washington-based Climate Impacts Group (CIG) downscaled gridded data at the watershed scale for spatial Forest overlay and identification of locations of greatest projected future change. The subwatershed scale was considered too fine to apply macro-scale climatehydrologic model outputs (grid cells about 6 km 2 Historic compared to 2030 ). Changes in winter and summer temperatures range from about 3 to 5 °C increase but spatial differences are very small (
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AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS Authors* M
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ASSESSSING THE VULNERABILITY OF WAT
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staff; the task group included repr
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Figure 2. Conceptual model for asse
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Figure 3. Density of springs and sm
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Using Historic Data One finding con
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NF (Region 8) relied on information
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level of uncertainty. Though there
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climate (Casola et al. 2005). Only
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sensitivity. Most were derived from
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The sensitivity evaluation typicall
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in exposure. The result of combinin
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highest priority for management act
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to information affected the assessm
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with and rely on in many resource d
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Pilot National Forest Reports Conte
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Assessment of Watershed Vulnerabili
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Gallatin National Forest Watershed
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Helena National Forest Watershed Vu
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Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunniso
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White River National Forest Watersh
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Coconino National Forest Watershed
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Sawtooth National Forest Watershed
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Sawtooth National Forest Watershed
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Chequamegon-‐Nicolet National F
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Chugach National Forest Watershed V
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