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Helena National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Northern Region (R1) Composite Watershed Vulnerability Cutthroat trout will experience the same changes in temperature that bull trout experience because they too inhabit headwater streams. Summer maximum air temperatures were predicted to increase by approximately 2 °C uniformly across the forest for the 2030-2059 predictive period and approximately 5 °C uniformly for the 2070-2099 predictive period. These temperature changes are assumed to have little impact on cutthroat populations; however there could be a net positive effect due to the predicted decrease in invasive populations (Figure 5). Figure 5. Composite watershed sensitivity rating for Westslope cutthroat trout with invasive fish species (bull trout and brown trout) habitat overlay Water Resource Value: Infrastructure Sensitivity Based on the indicators used to determine sensitivity (Table 5), a rank was developed to show those watersheds that are least resilient (most sensitive). The overall sensitivity score was determined by calculating the average of the ranked values given to each of the sensitivity factor. Density of high value near-stream developments (table 5) were used to characterize infrastructure value (Figure 6). 56 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
Helena National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Northern Region (R1) Resource Value at Risk Description Water diversions Number of diversions per subwatershed. Based on Montana State water rights and diversion data. Municipal Watershed Current municipal water use. Recreation Developments Developed recreation sites within 200' of stream (i.e., campgrounds, picnic grounds, trailheads, etc.) Riparian roads Roads miles within 150' of a stream. Sensitivity Factor Description Number of Road/Stream Crossings Stream crossings were determined by intersecting perennial and intermittent streams with existing roads. Percent severe and/or moderate erosion potential Soils determined using the erosion potential designated by the Helena National Forest Soil Survey. Roads Road miles by subwatershed. Riparian roads Roads miles within 150' of a stream. Table 5. Resource values considered and indicators used to determine infrastructure sensitivity Figure 6. Sensitivity ratings for the infrastructure value on the Helena National Forest. Map highlights Tenmile watershed, a watershed with high sensitivity due to its function as a municipal watershed. 57 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
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AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS Authors* M
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ASSESSSING THE VULNERABILITY OF WAT
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staff; the task group included repr
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Figure 2. Conceptual model for asse
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Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunniso
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Assessment of Watershed Vulnerabili
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White River National Forest Watersh
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Coconino National Forest Watershed
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Sawtooth National Forest Watershed
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Shasta Trinity National Forest Wate
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Umatilla National Forest Watershed
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Ouachita National Forest Watershed
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Chequamegon-‐Nicolet National F
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Chugach National Forest Watershed V
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