watervulnerability

Chugach National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Alaska Region (R10)
• One source suggests the Resurrection Creek watershed is insensitive to wildfire. Historically,
fires are infrequent and of low intensity given the moderate levels of precipitation compared to
the western Kenai Peninsula. The general north-facing slope aspect reduces sensitivity (Kalli and
Blanchet 2001).
• Another source says that Hope and nearby communities are at greater risk. An interagency plan
states the Hope/Sunrise area is at a high risk – on a scale of low, moderate, high, and extreme
(Kenai Peninsula Borough 2004). Part of this rating may be due to the poor road access and
availability of personnel and equipment.
Trends
The population in the Hope area increased from 137 in 2000 to 182 in 2010 but there is a large margin of
error (U.S. Census Bureau 2011). There has also been an increase of 31 housing units, some of which
may be cabins or other development targeted for tourism. Most of the development is in areas adjacent to
the Resurrection Creek watershed, but this still increases exposure to wildfire along the wildland urban
interface.
The increased development suggests that there is more interest in the area and probably more use of the
recreational opportunities within the watershed. No figures are available for future recreational use
specifically for the Resurrection Creek area, but recreation use and tourism are projected to increase
throughout the Kenai Peninsula (USDA Forest Service 2002).
The situation with commercial gold mining is unclear at the present time. There have been discussions
between the Chugach National Forest and the mining interests regarding stream restoration work the
Forest Service would like to implement in the lower stretches of the creek. However, this and other
information on future mining plans are not available.
A watershed restoration project along a one-mile stretch of Resurrection Creek should provide significant
benefits to the hydrology of the system. The biological benefits will arrive more slowly, but are expected
nonetheless. Fish populations should increase with habitat improvements (Martin et al. 2010), particularly
for coho salmon. Because only two brood years of coho salmon have returned since the completion of the
project, not enough time has passed to detect any trends.
The riparian vegetation that was planted at the project site should be established by now but it will still
take several more years for the shrub species to reach maturity. Sitka alder (Alnus sitchensis) should also
be regenerating naturally. Conifers will require many decades to reach a size large enough for meaningful
input into the stream as large woody debris (Farr and Harris 1979).
Exposure/Risks
The predicted changes call for increases in precipitation and air temperatures, as well as a reduction in the
number of days below freezing, summarized in Table 1. There are conflicting results for changes in
evapotranspiration from 1979 to 2010 (NASA 2011), but it appears that rates in the Kenai Peninsula area
have been increasing (Haufler et al. 2010).
Fire Hazard Risk
One of the main concerns on the Kenai Peninsula has been the risk of fire, because many of the smaller
towns such as Hope are within or adjacent to forests. The towns’ isolation, relative lack of firefighting
personnel, and lack of equipment make these communities especially vulnerable. In addition, fuel loads
are high, due to the number of spruce killed by infestations of the spruce bark beetle.
291 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change