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Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunnison National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Rocky Mountain Region (R2) PARTNERS Figure 2. Upper Colorado River Basin Data were obtained from the following groups: • Rocky Mountain Research Station (facilitated training on use of climate tools, developed climate record for GMUG (pending), PRISM data, from Linda Joyce, Chuck Rhoades, David Coulson) • Western Water Assessment (WWA) (climate data websites from Jeff Lucas) • The Nature Conservancy (climate change scenarios for the Gunnison Basin, prepared by Joe Barsugli (WWA) and Linda Mearns (National Center for Atmospheric Research)) • Climate Impacts Group (Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) modeled data for several climate change scenarios at the HUC-5 scale and raster data at the 6 km-grid scale) 66 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunnison National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Rocky Mountain Region (R2) • Colorado Department of Water Resources (surface and groundwater sources, water rights information) • Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (source water protection areas) SCALES OF ANALYSIS Area Assessed The WVA was completed for the entire Forest and surrounding areas, in general; and specifically for those portions of the GMUG within watersheds that were mostly on National Forest System lands. Analysis Units Several different analysis units were used as part of this WVA. Analyses were summarized primarily at the subwatershed level (-6), as delineated by the sixth level (12-digit) of the hydrologic unit hierarchy in the US Geological Survey (USGS) National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) Watershed Boundary Dataset (WBD). There are 205 subwatersheds within the assessment area for this WVA. Some subwatersheds were merged together for analysis purposes so that complete catchment basins were delineated (some HUC-6 subwatershed delineations from NHD/WBD separated upper portions of watersheds from lower portions). This resulted in 152 modified HUC-6 subwatersheds. These modified HUC-6 subwatershed analysis units were used to summarize information on aquatic resource values, and watershed risks described below as inherent sensitivities and anthropogenic stressors. Anticipated climate changes, or exposure (also described below) were evaluated using several different analysis units. Watersheds (HUC-5), delineated at the fifth level (10-digit) of the hydrologic unit hierarchy in NHD/WBD were used to summarize predicted climate changes output by the VIC model. There are 49 HUC-5 watersheds that overlap the assessment area for this WVA. In addition, exposure was also evaluated using geographic areas that have similar climatic regimes. These geographic areas also roughly correspond to areas used in Forest planning. Modified HUC-6 subwatersheds were aggregated into six geographic areas within the assessment area. Figure 3 shows the original NHD/WBD HUC-6 delineations, the modified HUC-6s used for this analysis, and the HUC-5 watersheds as they overlap the GMUG. Figure 4 shows the geographic overlap of the modified HUC-6 subwatersheds and the GMUG. 67 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
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AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS Authors* M
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ASSESSSING THE VULNERABILITY OF WAT
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staff; the task group included repr
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Figure 2. Conceptual model for asse
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Figure 3. Density of springs and sm
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Using Historic Data One finding con
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NF (Region 8) relied on information
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level of uncertainty. Though there
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climate (Casola et al. 2005). Only
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White River National Forest Watersh
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Assessment of Watershed Vulnerabili
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Coconino National Forest Watershed
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Sawtooth National Forest Watershed
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Shasta Trinity National Forest Wate
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Umatilla National Forest Watershed
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Ouachita National Forest Watershed
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Chequamegon-‐Nicolet National F
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Chugach National Forest Watershed V
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