watervulnerability

Chequamegon-­‐Nicolet National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Eastern Region (R9)
Figure 17. Predicted distribution of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a cold water species, for current climate and
moderate warming (increase air 3 deg C, water 2.4 deg C), Chequamegon-Nicolet NF
With the exception of hornyhead chub, warm water species considered in this analysis were predicted to
remain the same or expand habitat. Black crappie and stonecat were predicted to expand substantially on
a percentage basis but because their existing habitat is very limited (4 and 1%, respectively, of total
stream length), the absolute increase in habitat would be less dramatic (10 and 21%, respectively, of total
stream length) (Table 5).
Since all fish habitat used in this analysis was predicted from modeling, including habitat for the present
climate, this data is most useful when viewed as an index of the relative magnitude and general pattern of
species distribution changes in response to future warming scenarios. This modeled habitat has been used
here to classify the vulnerability of individual HUC-6s but the results for any individual HUC-6 should be
viewed carefully and the use of more detailed and site specific data should be considered.
For cold water fish, there were 35 HUC-6s (22%) classified as having high vulnerability, 35 (22%) as
moderately vulnerable, 37 (24%) as low vulnerability, and 51 (32%) as having very low vulnerability
(Figure 18). For cool water fish, there were 40 HUC-6s (25%) classified as having high vulnerability, 40
(25%) classified as moderately vulnerable, 39 (25%) classified as low vulnerability, and 39 (25%)
classified as having very low vulnerability (Figure 19).
256 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change