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Shasta Trinity National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Pacific Southwest Region (R5) CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCE ON HYDROLOGIC PROCESSES Implications of climate change on water resources are very complex. Based on climate trends already observed and discussion of potential effects of changing climate on hydrologic processes (Furniss et al, 2010), the team identified several changes. These were briefly addressed in the discussion of each resource value, and are displayed in Figure 12. Next, the team considered how these changes might influence key aquatic resource values. The assessment assumes the effects will be moderated in resilient watersheds. These inter-relationships are shown in Table 3. Figure 12. Summary of likely climate change effects on hydrologic processes, and on selected resource values Stressors (Exposure) Two elements were combined to rate exposure of watersheds to climate change. The first is temperature increases predicted by the A2 Climate Scenario from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset. This is a downscaled global temperature modeling output available from the University of California, Santa Barbara. The second element of the exposure analysis was characterization of each stream and river segment’s relative solar exposure. The NetMap Modeling Product (citation) was used for this characterization. Projected Temperature Increases The CMIP3 multi-model dataset displayed below uses an A2 emission scenario represents a world that has a self-reliant focus on local or regional concerns as opposed to cooperative global concerns; it’s also driven by greater emphasis on economics than on environmental concerns. The result is temperatures at the high end of the range of projections. Projected temperatures are displayed in Figure 13. Note that in 196 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
Shasta Trinity National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Pacific Southwest Region (R5) contrast to other characterizations, temperature increases are not displayed at all three scales, because the downscaled data do not allow discrimination at the HUC-6 level. Figure 13. Projected Climate Change (World Climate Research Program (WCRP), Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Multi Model Dataset Solar Exposure Products from the NetMap Model (Earth Systems Institute) were utilized to display areas that have the greatest percentage of each hydrologic unit that is susceptible to solar exposure using digital elevation modeling (Figure 14). Flat areas are considered to have the greatest level of exposure, and steeper ground is most variable, with aspects determining overall percentages that have a higher or lower degree of solar exposure. 197 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
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AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS Authors* M
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ASSESSSING THE VULNERABILITY OF WAT
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staff; the task group included repr
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Figure 2. Conceptual model for asse
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Figure 3. Density of springs and sm
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Using Historic Data One finding con
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NF (Region 8) relied on information
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level of uncertainty. Though there
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climate (Casola et al. 2005). Only
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sensitivity. Most were derived from
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The sensitivity evaluation typicall
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in exposure. The result of combinin
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highest priority for management act
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to information affected the assessm
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with and rely on in many resource d
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Pilot National Forest Reports Conte
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Assessment of Watershed Vulnerabili
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Gallatin National Forest Watershed
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Helena National Forest Watershed Vu
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Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunniso
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White River National Forest Watersh
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Coconino National Forest Watershed
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Chequamegon-‐Nicolet National F
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Chugach National Forest Watershed V
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