watervulnerability
watervulnerability
watervulnerability
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
Chequamegon-‐Nicolet National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Eastern Region (R9)<br />
INTRODUCTION<br />
Maintaining and restoring watershed resilience is an appropriate strategy for responding to climate change<br />
because changes are anticipated to affect every component of the hydrologic cycle. But watersheds can<br />
differ greatly in their vulnerability to climate change. Understanding differences in watershed<br />
vulnerabilities is necessary to develop adaptive management strategies and implement targeted land<br />
management practices.<br />
Several National Forests, representing each region of the US Forest Service, are working to assess the<br />
potential impacts of climate-induced hydrologic change on important water resources. Each forest is<br />
identifying important water resources, assessing their exposure to climate change, evaluating risk,<br />
categorizing watershed vulnerability, and recommending potential management responses.<br />
The Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest (CNNF) is one of the pilot Forests. This report summarizes an<br />
assessment of watershed vulnerability associated with four important water resources: wetlands,<br />
groundwater recharge, stream fishes and infrastructure (culverts at road stream crossings). More detailed<br />
individual reports are available for each of these resource assessments.<br />
These four resources were selected because of their importance to people and the local environment.<br />
Wetlands (with an emphasis on bogs) were selected because of their importance to the northern<br />
Wisconsin landscape and their apparent vulnerability to increased potential evapotranspiration.<br />
Groundwater recharge was selected because of the importance of groundwater to the ecology of many<br />
streams, lakes, and wetlands; the potential for changes associated with higher evapotranspiration; and to<br />
take advantage of a groundwater inventory currently underway on the Forest. The ultimate goal will be to<br />
model the projected effects of changes in groundwater recharge on aquifer levels, flow paths and flow<br />
rates and to evaluate those effects on surface water resources. Wetlands and groundwater recharge were<br />
also selected because they were unlikely to be addressed by the other National Forests in the pilot.<br />
Infrastructure was selected because there is a concern that precipitation frequency and intensity may<br />
increase in the future, threatening culverts that are not properly sized. This is one of the most urgent<br />
management considerations because culverts installed now need to last up to 100 years. Stream fish-water<br />
temperature was selected because of the potential for future stream temperature increases and the<br />
subsequent effects on cold and cool water fish. It was also selected because there was an opportunity to<br />
take advantage of a statewide analysis of the potential effects of climate change on stream fish in<br />
Wisconsin.<br />
METHODS<br />
Methods are summarized here; more detail is provided in the following sections. In all cases, the<br />
assessment included two basic steps: (1) some type of modeling to characterize the potential effect or risk<br />
of projected climate change on the water resource, and (2) extrapolation of that potential risk to<br />
characterize the vulnerability of that resource at the watershed scale. The five individual vulnerability<br />
ratings (wetlands, groundwater recharge, infrastructure, cold water fish, and cool water fish) were<br />
combined into one composite numerical watershed vulnerability ranking with the following thresholds:<br />
1.0, very low; 1.2-2.4, low; 2.6-3.0, moderate; and 3.2-4.0, high. The composite rankings were based on<br />
averages of the individual resource ratings.<br />
Climate data required for modeling were obtained from the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change<br />
Impacts (WICCI) program (www.wicci.wisc.edu/). The WICCI Climate Working Group has developed a<br />
regional-scale, daily dataset of historical and future projections of total precipitation, and maximum and<br />
minimum temperature for the time period 1950-2099 at an 8-km spatial resolution across Wisconsin. This<br />
237 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change