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Shasta Trinity National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Pacific Southwest Region (R5) Figure 14. Thermal exposure of streams on the Shasta-Trinity NF Watershed Sensitivity and Resiliency Numerous factors were considered in the assessment of what might modify potential changes to hydrologic factors. Of these, two factors were thought to be most important. These are the percentage of each watershed where snow is the dominate runoff process, and the percentage of each watershed composed of geologies where groundwater is a primary influence. Groundwater Influence Though future changes in precipitation will affect all geologies, areas with groundwater influence are less likely to be rapidly altered by climatic influences and should supply more reliable water sources. Because infiltration rates are relatively high in such areas, they buffer changes to runoff timing, and increased water temperature. The percentage of a hydrologic unit that contains volcanic basalt or limestone was used to represent areas that are ground dominated systems with limited surface water flows and a tempered/ delayed hydrologic response. 198 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
Shasta Trinity National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Pacific Southwest Region (R5) Figure 15. Percentage of hydrologic units in volcanic and limestone geologies; representing groundwater influence. While geologies that promote infiltration and groundwater may tend to buffer climate change effects, areas that are currently dominated by snowmelt processes are likely to be most susceptible to change. Snowmelt-Dominated Hydrology An evaluation of the climatic subsections (Ecomap 1997) was used to rate areas most susceptible to hydrologic transitions based on elevation and snow dominated runoff (Figure 16). Ecological subsections on the Forest were ranked based on the amount of snow dominated runoff. The percentages of each hydrologic unit containing the ranked climatic subsections determined the overall sensitivity of the hydrologic units. 199 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
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AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS Authors* M
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ASSESSSING THE VULNERABILITY OF WAT
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staff; the task group included repr
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Figure 2. Conceptual model for asse
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Figure 3. Density of springs and sm
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Using Historic Data One finding con
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NF (Region 8) relied on information
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level of uncertainty. Though there
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climate (Casola et al. 2005). Only
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sensitivity. Most were derived from
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The sensitivity evaluation typicall
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in exposure. The result of combinin
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highest priority for management act
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to information affected the assessm
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with and rely on in many resource d
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Pilot National Forest Reports Conte
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Assessment of Watershed Vulnerabili
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Gallatin National Forest Watershed
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Helena National Forest Watershed Vu
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Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunniso
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White River National Forest Watersh
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Coconino National Forest Watershed
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Chequamegon-‐Nicolet National F
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Chugach National Forest Watershed V
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