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Shasta Trinity National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Pacific Southwest Region (R5) Figure 7. Trends in snow depths from snow courses on the Shasta-Trinity National Forest. Maximum, mean and minimum depths are shown in green, blue and red, respectively. Figure 8. Photographs of the Hotlum Glacier, Mount Shasta, taken September 18, 1935 (left) and August 24, 2008 (right). Photos courtesy of Mount Shasta Climbing Rangers. APPROACH TO ASSESSING VULNERABILITY The general model used in this assessment is shown in Figure 9. The approach starts with identifying important aquatic resource values on the Forest that might be affected by climate change. Next, the potential changes to climate and the resources were assessed. The third step was to examine factors that might modify the response. The three components are characterized (rated and ranked) at the watershed scales described above. Vulnerability was derived by overlaying the products of the first three steps. The objective of the assessment was to provide a means of describing relative vulnerability of aquatic resources on the Forest to potential climate change impacts. It is important to remember the results are not applicable to watersheds not on the Forest, and they are not based on ecological thresholds. 192 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
Shasta Trinity National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Pacific Southwest Region (R5) Figure 9. Model used in the Shasta-Trinity NF Watershed Vulnerability Assessment. Note that stressors are limited to those relative to climate change exposure. WATER RESOURCE VALUES Three resource issues were selected for analysis, warming, drying, and extreme events. The aquatic values of focus are the aquatic habitats associated with lakes and streams (fish focus), ponds and springs (sensitive aquatic species), and infrastructure (stream crossings and near-stream recreation facilities). These resources are likely to be impacted by climate change in different ways. Fish populations are most likely to be affected by warming of rivers and streams. Sensitive aquatic species are most likely to be affected by the drying of ponds, small lakes, and springs. Infrastructure is at increased risk of damage from runoff from extreme precipitation events. Fisheries Fish species on the Forest include several USFS-sensitive species as well as species listed as threatened and endangered under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). ESA-listed species include Sacramento River winter run Chinook, Central Valley spring- and fall-run Chinook, North Coast winter coho, Northern California steelhead, and Great Basin Redband trout. The distribution of these species is shown in Figure 10. Impacts to these species are likely to occur as increased temperatures reduce the amount of suitable habitat. California lakes have been found, on average, to be warming at 0.2 degrees per year over the past several decades (Schneider et al. 2009). Warmer water temperatures and shifts in timing of hydrographs will likely disturb breeding and rearing lifecycles, and also impact food-source organisms upon which the species depend, resulting in additional stress. Increased stresses could result in loss of species already at risk. 193 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
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AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS Authors* M
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ASSESSSING THE VULNERABILITY OF WAT
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staff; the task group included repr
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Figure 2. Conceptual model for asse
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Figure 3. Density of springs and sm
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Using Historic Data One finding con
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NF (Region 8) relied on information
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level of uncertainty. Though there
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climate (Casola et al. 2005). Only
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sensitivity. Most were derived from
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The sensitivity evaluation typicall
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in exposure. The result of combinin
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highest priority for management act
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to information affected the assessm
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with and rely on in many resource d
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Pilot National Forest Reports Conte
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Assessment of Watershed Vulnerabili
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Gallatin National Forest Watershed
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Helena National Forest Watershed Vu
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Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunniso
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Coconino National Forest Watershed
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Chequamegon-‐Nicolet National F
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Chugach National Forest Watershed V
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