watervulnerability

Chequamegon-­‐Nicolet National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Eastern Region (R9)
Figure 20. HUC-6 vulnerability to climate change based on 5 attributes (groundwater, wetlands, cold and cool water
stream fish, and infrastructure-culverts) for Chequamegon-Nicolet NF
CONCLUSIONS
Wetlands
Hydrologic modeling of an upland-bog complex with PHIM for the Park Falls unit of the Chequamegon-
Nicolet NF, using WICCI downscaled data for one location, just one GCM (GFDL-CM2.0) and one
climate change scenario (A1B), indicates that bogs may be susceptible to climate change impacts.
Average annual evapotranspiration would increase about 3.2 inches or 15 percent, runoff could decrease
about 1.3 inches or roughly 25 percent with increases in spring and decreases in summer and fall, water
levels in the bog would be 2-4.5 inches lower in summer and fall, and no-flow days would increase from
about 4 to 23 percent of time.
The PHIM modeling may have underestimated runoff, especially in spring, but the overall results seem to
provide reasonable estimates of the potential impacts of climate change on bog hydrology. Based on the
modeling, it was concluded that climate change poses some risk to Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest
wetlands, especially bogs. These risks include loss of wetland area, changes in wetland plant
communities, and alteration of wetland processes such as water chemistry, peat accumulation, and
260 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change