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Shasta Trinity National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Pacific Southwest Region (R5) Klamath River Basin Subbasins Sacramento Subbasins Shasta River River Basin Lower Pitt River Trinity River McCloud River (Main stem) Sacramento Headwaters South Fork Trinity River Sacramento/Clear Cow Creek Cottonwood Creek Table 1. River Basins and nested Sub-basins on the Shasta Trinity National Forest The most relevant scale depends on assessment objectives and on the distribution of values and/or risks. Ultimately the finest scales of analysis provide the greatest level of information. If the data within the units are relatively equally distributed then smaller scales do not provide much additional information. Small scales are impractical when the scale of data available is larger than the units assessed. In this case, there are no differences between finer and larger scales. RECENT CLIMATE TRENDS IN CALIFORNIA Mean Summer and Winter Temperatures Cleland used Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data to analyze climate change across the United States. The 1961-1990 and 1991-2007 time periods were compared. The greatest difference in mean summer temperatures appears to be in the Southwestern United States. The mean summer temperatures are slightly warmer (0.6 º - 3.3ºF) throughout most of the California; however, in a small section in the north (home of Shasta Trinity Forest) and in a small strip along the Sierra Nevada, mean summer temperatures appear to be slightly cooler (0.2 º - 1.5 ºF). Winte (from Cleland, Summe 2010) 188 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change Figure 3. Winter (left) and summer (right)
Shasta Trinity National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Pacific Southwest Region (R5) Precipitation Differences in winter precipitation throughout California appear to have increased from 0.1 to 7.9 inches with the greatest increases in the north (Figures 3 and 4). California shows great variability in growing season precipitation, compared to the rest of the nation. Northern California received more precipitation (0.1 to 2.1 inches) while southern California has received less (0.1 to 1.3 inches). Figure 4. Winter and growing season changes in precipitation (PRISM Data: 1961-1990 vs.1991-2007) RECENT CLIMATE TRENDS ON FOREST (Summarized from Butz and Safford 2010) Mean Annual Temperatures Most of the Forest has had an increase of about 2 degrees Fahrenheit in mean annual temperature over the last 75 years, driven primarily by nighttime temperature increases (Figure 5). No changes in temperature have occurred at the Mt Shasta weather station (northern most portions of the forest in the Southern Cascade Ecoregion). PRISM data suggest mean annual temperature increases are slightly less at lower elevations (1ºC, 1.8º F). 189 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
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AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS Authors* M
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ASSESSSING THE VULNERABILITY OF WAT
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staff; the task group included repr
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Figure 2. Conceptual model for asse
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Figure 3. Density of springs and sm
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Using Historic Data One finding con
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NF (Region 8) relied on information
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level of uncertainty. Though there
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climate (Casola et al. 2005). Only
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sensitivity. Most were derived from
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The sensitivity evaluation typicall
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in exposure. The result of combinin
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highest priority for management act
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to information affected the assessm
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with and rely on in many resource d
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Pilot National Forest Reports Conte
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Assessment of Watershed Vulnerabili
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Gallatin National Forest Watershed
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Helena National Forest Watershed Vu
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Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunniso
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White River National Forest Watersh
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Coconino National Forest Watershed
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Chequamegon-‐Nicolet National F
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Chugach National Forest Watershed V
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