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Coconino National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Southwest Region (R3) Figure 11. Snowfall at Flagstaff (Staudenmaier et al. 2007) Figure 12. Air temperature and precipitation from the Central Highlands of Arizona 1930-2005 (ADWR 2011) 142 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
Coconino National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Southwest Region (R3) Modeled Predictions Available to the team were predictions of climate change prepared by the Climate Impacts Group (CIG) of the University of Washington. CIG compared available predictions with historic data for the western United States, and combined models with the best correlations to develop composite models for the western United States (Littell et al. 2011). Downscaled data from these models were provided to National Forests participating in the WVA pilot, including the Coconino NF. This analysis used the CIG composite model, and predictions for 2030 and 2080. These were compared for the composite modeling of the historic condition. The models predict nearly-uniform air temperature increases across the Coconino NF, of about 4 degrees F in 2030, and 7 degrees F in 2080. Modeled comparisons, by season, are displayed in Table 3. Results for maximum July temperatures in 2030, as compared to the historic condition, are shown in Figure 13. Season Historic 2030 2080 2030 Change 2080 Change DJF 50.6 53.9 56.7 3.3 6.1 MAM 66.7 70.7 73.8 3.9 7.1 JJA 87.0 91.4 94.5 4.4 7.6 SON 70.6 75.0 78.3 4.4 7.8 Annual 68.7 72.7 75.9 4.0 7.1 Table 3. Results from CIG composite model for air temperature. Values are averages for the entire analysis area. Figure 13. Results from CIG composite model projection for air temperature daily maximum for July. Results are the difference between the 2030 and historic simulations. 143 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
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AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS Authors* M
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ASSESSSING THE VULNERABILITY OF WAT
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staff; the task group included repr
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Figure 2. Conceptual model for asse
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Figure 3. Density of springs and sm
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Using Historic Data One finding con
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NF (Region 8) relied on information
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level of uncertainty. Though there
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climate (Casola et al. 2005). Only
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sensitivity. Most were derived from
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The sensitivity evaluation typicall
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in exposure. The result of combinin
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highest priority for management act
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to information affected the assessm
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with and rely on in many resource d
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Pilot National Forest Reports Conte
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Assessment of Watershed Vulnerabili
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Gallatin National Forest Watershed
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Helena National Forest Watershed Vu
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Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunniso
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Shasta Trinity National Forest Wate
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Umatilla National Forest Watershed
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Ouachita National Forest Watershed
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Chequamegon-‐Nicolet National F
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Chugach National Forest Watershed V
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