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Ouachita National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Southern Region (R8)<br />

activities, such as past and current land use and roads and trails, are factors directly affecting hydrologic<br />

change within a watershed.<br />

Buffers that modify the anticipated hydrologic changes<br />

Land use and changes in land use is a useful tool to anticipate changes in sediment. This is the primary<br />

vehicle used in the ACE model to address cumulative effects. For the purposes of this exercise, the<br />

current land use condition was frozen for both scenarios and time frames. In addition, forest management<br />

was not addressed. No forest management activities (e.g. clearcuts or thinnings) were modeled.<br />

Roads and trails (including their current condition and level of use) is the other useful stressor to address<br />

changes in sediment yield. Currently, many forest roads on the Ouachita National Forest are seeing<br />

increased off highway vehicle (OHV) use and substantial reductions in maintenance. Bringing these forest<br />

roads/trails up to an acceptable level of construction standard and providing maintenance is the easiest<br />

way to buffer sediment losses. Reducing user created trails is another method to buffer sediment losses.<br />

For this exercise, the current road and trail condition and potential current condition (assuming roads and<br />

trails built to standard and maintained) were used in the climate change predictions.<br />

Other methods not addressed could include<br />

reducing road and trail miles (obliteration<br />

or maintenance level 1) or reducing the<br />

numbers of OHV users. County road<br />

maintenance and design could also be<br />

addressed and improved.<br />

Method used to characterize watershed<br />

risk<br />

Increases in sediment can directly affect<br />

stream habitats by reducing available<br />

substrate, and reducing pool volumes and<br />

pool depths. Indirectly changes<br />

in habitat can affect fish<br />

communities. The sensitivity of<br />

these changes was established by<br />

taking known fish population<br />

samples and determining the<br />

annual sediment contribution<br />

from the watershed above the<br />

sample location. Percent<br />

sediment increase (over a<br />

baseline condition) was<br />

compared to the relative<br />

abundance of various fish guilds.<br />

Ecoregions and slope (how steep<br />

the watershed is) were used to<br />

generate broad categories. When<br />

a wedge pattern was found,<br />

sensitivity thresholds were<br />

231 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change

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