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Assessment of Watershed Vulnerability to Climate Change Coconino National Forest April 2012 Prepared by: Rory Steinke, CPSSc Watershed Program Manager Coconino National Forest Flagstaff, Arizona 130 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
Coconino National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Southwest Region (R3) INTRODUCTION This report presents the results of a Watershed Vulnerability Assessment (WVA) conducted on the Coconino National Forest (CNF) during 2010 and 2011. The Forest is located in Arizona in the Southwest Region (R3) of the USFS. The CNF volunteered to participate in a collaborative project between USFS and FS Research to develop processes to assess watershed climate vulnerability. The objective of the assessment was to evaluate the relative vulnerabilities of watersheds to hydrologic changes that could result from a changing climate. The pilot assessment process employed a very simple model of vulnerability, based on the combination of values at risk, the sensitivity of those values to change, and the potential for exposure. The model is illustrated in Figure 1. Figure 1. Conceptual Model for Assessing Watershed Vulnerability The pilot team also established a step-wise approach to the vulnerability assessment. The process is patterned after Watershed Analysis (USDA, 1994). The organization of this report follows the WVA process steps, which are as follows. • Step 1 - Establish the Scope and Water Resource Values that Will Drive the Assessment • Step 2 - Assess Exposure • Step 3 - Assess Watershed Sensitivity and Watershed Condition • Step 4 - Evaluate and Categorize Vulnerability • Step 5 - Response and Recommendations for Making WVA Useful for Managers • Step 6 - Critique the Vulnerability Assessment STEP 1 - Establish the Scope and Water Resource Values that Will Drive the Assessment Five fifth-field watersheds on the Forest were selected for analysis. These watersheds were selected because they support most of the aquatic resource values on the Forest. The watersheds are listed in Table 1, and displayed in Figure 2. 131 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
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AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS Authors* M
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ASSESSSING THE VULNERABILITY OF WAT
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staff; the task group included repr
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Figure 2. Conceptual model for asse
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Figure 3. Density of springs and sm
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Using Historic Data One finding con
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NF (Region 8) relied on information
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level of uncertainty. Though there
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climate (Casola et al. 2005). Only
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sensitivity. Most were derived from
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The sensitivity evaluation typicall
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in exposure. The result of combinin
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highest priority for management act
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to information affected the assessm
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with and rely on in many resource d
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Pilot National Forest Reports Conte
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Assessment of Watershed Vulnerabili
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Gallatin National Forest Watershed
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Helena National Forest Watershed Vu
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Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunniso
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Sawtooth National Forest Watershed
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Shasta Trinity National Forest Wate
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Umatilla National Forest Watershed
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Ouachita National Forest Watershed
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Chequamegon-‐Nicolet National F
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Chugach National Forest Watershed V
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