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Umatilla National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Pacific Northwest Region (R6) SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND MANAGEMENT ACTIONS Forest-scale rating of relative watershed vulnerability to climate change shows that a majority of the Forest has “moderate” to “high” vulnerability, using categorical indicators for Water Values, Sensitivity, and Exposure. Two “hot spots,” or cluster watersheds, show the highest rating: mid-Columbia marine influence zone (temperature vulnerability), and upper NFJD, higher elevation snow zone (water supply vulnerability). A total of 29 HU12 subwatersheds, or 18%, ranked highest vulnerability. (A summary of vulnerability factors and management options is available at www.fs.fed.us/ccrc/wva/appendixes.) Bull trout habitat modeling shows current habitat quality and projected losses and fragmentation in response to warming climate. Populations in Upper NFJD may be more susceptible to human impacts. Groundwater and habitat complexity may buffer climate impacts in some watersheds. More resilient areas in Upper Lookingglass and Walla Walla could be a focus for protection and restoration. Management Actions • Verification: Field verification of potential susceptibility to hydrologic regime changes of campground and other high value developments. GIS analysis of these values was limited by quality of spatial data; some developments may or may not be vulnerable. Field verification and more detailed hydrologic modeling is needed. • Increase resilience: Use existing programs for protecting watersheds; measures include “Best Management Practices”, Forest Flood Emergency Response Plan, and land allocations (wilderness and roadless areas as refugia). • Actively restore: Evaluate restoration priorities and activities, and address vulnerable infrastructure, passage barriers, and riparian conditions. • Improve coordination: Forests are critical sources of water and habitat, but resource availability and conditions are changing, with more uncertainty. Consider findings in Forest planning, Regional vulnerability assessments, and restoration strategies. Engage with communities in adaptation strategies. Assess current juvenile bull trout populations in the key watersheds to begin the process of establishing the “thermal” limit of juvenile bull trout. • Improve monitoring: Follow the bull trout monitoring protocol and example application in the Secesh River basin (published by RMRS) to design bull trout monitoring protocol for the UNF. • Expand inventory of culvert barriers and compile other cumulative effects that may alter bull trout distribution. • Refine modeling to address variation in stream temperature scale; for example, site versus systematic variation at stream, landscape, and regional scales is an issue with many temperature studies (Isaak et al. 2010). There is a need to collect further climatic data at finer scales and consult PRISM data (OSU application) to make improvements to temperature models. 222 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
Umatilla National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Pacific Northwest Region (R6) CRITIQUE Questions not considered: This first run-through for the Forest and initial fine-scale analysis for the bull trout did not address many questions, such as downstream resource values at risk. The analysis also does not fully represent resilience factors and did not use a full suite of climate exposure factors, including flow metrics. Most useful data sources: Forest Plan revision watershed condition data, CIG data, and Forest water temperature data. Most important data deficiencies: Physical framework, water uses data, and complexity of using gridded climate data. Useful tools: ArcGIS, RMRS temperature model, with caveats (need technical assistance) Problem tools: Water rights data and climate data sets. FUTURE WORK • Refine coarse-scale analysis: validate ratings, run individual values with specific climate exposure (Water Uses and SWE), and consider 2070 timeframe. • Improve fine-scale model analysis – incorporate finer-scale historic climate data into model, identify where habitat losses and disconnects are likely. In Forest Restoration strategy, consider individual actions to improve connectivity and maintain habitat. Identify “lost causes.” • Comparison of bull trout habitat modeling to coarse-scale aquatic species vulnerability analysis. • Use flow metrics in more detailed hydrologic analysis (Wenger et al, 2010). PROJECT TEAM Core Team: Caty Clifton, Forest hydrologist; Kate Day, hydrologist; Allison Johnson, fish biologist Support: Kristy Groves, Dave Crabtree, Tracii Hickman - fish biologists, aquatic analysis. Bob Gecy - watershed condition ratings from the Blue Mountains Forest plan revision, basis for sensitivity rating, and analysis of historic climate and gage data in the Blue Mountains RMRS: Dan Isaak and Dona Horan - temperature modeling and data processing assistance Ralph Martinez, - GIS analyst, Plumas NF - support preparing CIG climate data. Pilot Forests - for a community of practice; in particular, Christine Mai for risk matrix concept External: Ken Roby, USFS fish biologist emeritus - project support and coordination Rich Carmichael, ODFW - Mid Columbia Steelhead Recovery Plan vulnerability assessment example Climate Impacts Group: Jeremy Littell - climate data, expertise, and advice The Nature Conservancy, Oregon: Jenny Brown - groundwater assessment data PROJECT CONTACT Caty Clifton, Forest Hydrologist Umatilla National Forest cclifton@fs.fed.us (541) 278-3822 223 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
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AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS Authors* M
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ASSESSSING THE VULNERABILITY OF WAT
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staff; the task group included repr
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Figure 2. Conceptual model for asse
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Figure 3. Density of springs and sm
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Using Historic Data One finding con
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NF (Region 8) relied on information
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level of uncertainty. Though there
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climate (Casola et al. 2005). Only
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sensitivity. Most were derived from
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The sensitivity evaluation typicall
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in exposure. The result of combinin
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highest priority for management act
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to information affected the assessm
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with and rely on in many resource d
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Pilot National Forest Reports Conte
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Assessment of Watershed Vulnerabili
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Gallatin National Forest Watershed
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Helena National Forest Watershed Vu
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Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunniso
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Coconino National Forest Watershed
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