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Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunnison National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Rocky Mountain Region (R2) Projected Climate Change Anticipated Hydrologic Response Warmer Winter/Spring Temperatures Average daily winter/spring temperature expected to increase > 3 ˚C by 2050. Warmer Summer Temperatures Average daily summer temperature expected to increase > 3 ˚C by 2050. Changes in Precipitation At higher elevations, may be slightly greater precipitation during the winter, but likely less total precipitation, especially during warmer months. • Fewer extreme cold months, more frequent extreme warm months, more consecutive warm winters • Later accumulation of snowpack. • Earlier onset of snowpack runoff (1-3 weeks) • Higher winter stream flows • Increased water temperature • Winter precipitation more often rain than snow below 8200 feet • Snowline to move up in elevation. • Increased evapotranspiration • Decreased soil moisture • Reduced summer stream flows • Increased water temperature • May see higher peak flows associated with snowmelt, earlier in the year. • Lower summer and fall baseflows • Increased soil moisture during spring at lower elevations 90 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change Potential Consequences to Resource Values • Reduced duration of winter snow cover • Longer period of saturated roadbeds vs. frozen roadbeds • Increased demand for water storage • Earlier demand for irrigation water • Decreased summer stream flows • Potential change to aquatic species reproductive triggers or success • Increased risk to channel and floodplain infrastructure from higher runoff • Increased risk to riparian habitat/floodplains from higher flows • Changes to winter habitat, winter recreation and plant communities • Increased demand for irrigation water • Shifts in cold water habitat to higher elevations • Increases in warm water habitat • Decreased dissolved oxygen in lower elevation streams during the summer • Aquatic biota mortality and even loss of populations • Loss of summer stream flow • Decreased water availability during irrigation season • Increased risk to channel and floodplain infrastructure • Reduced riparian vegetation health and vigor • Increased landslides and slumps on geologically unstable areas • Increased potential damage to saturated roadbeds • Reduced aquatic habitat in summer and fall
Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunnison National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Rocky Mountain Region (R2) Projected Climate Change Anticipated Hydrologic Response More intense storms Warmer atmosphere has potential for increase in frequency and magnitude of big storms. More frequent and longer periods of drought Increase winter dust deposition on snowpack • Localized flooding • Increased debris flows • Increased hillslope and channel erosion • Less soil moisture • Reduced groundwater recharge • Lower summer and fall baseflow • Accentuate changes to snowpack melt 91 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change Potential Consequences to Resource Values • Increased risk to channel and floodplain infrastructure from sediment and high flows • Increased concern for public safety • Increased selenium load in streams where Mancos Shale exposure is significant. • Increased erosion associated with natural disturbances associated with drought (e.g., fire) • Increased plant stress and susceptibility to insect and disease mortality • Reduced groundwater contribution to baseflows • Reduced discharge from springs • Reduced wetland/riparian function • Similar to warmer winter consequences Table 4. Projected climate changes to the GMUG NF, anticipated hydrologic response and potential consequences to aquatic resource values WATERSHED RISK Inherent characteristics and past management of watersheds influence how a watershed is likely to be affected by climate change, and when combined, can be considered as contributors to watershed risk. Some characteristics and/or impacts from past activities may exacerbate the anticipated impacts of climate change (stressors), while others may reduce the impacts of climate change (buffers). Inherent characteristics of watersheds were evaluated as two types of sensitivities on the GMUG: 1) sensitivity to erosion or sediment production, and 2) sensitivity to runoff response. Existing condition was evaluated based on past management activities. (The GMUG has not yet completed the new watershed condition classification, as directed by the Washington Office.) Sensitivities are described below. Erosion or Sediment Production Sensitivity The erosion or sediment production sensitivity was initially developed as part of the watershed assessment completed for the Forest plan revision. Characteristics of geology, soils, landforms and topography that affect the erosion potential or amount of sediment production from a given subwatershed were evaluated. Due to data limitations of some information, this evaluation was limited to lands within the GMUG Forest boundary. Mass wasting potential was not available at the time of the Forest plan
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AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS Authors* M
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ASSESSSING THE VULNERABILITY OF WAT
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staff; the task group included repr
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Figure 2. Conceptual model for asse
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Figure 3. Density of springs and sm
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Using Historic Data One finding con
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NF (Region 8) relied on information
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level of uncertainty. Though there
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climate (Casola et al. 2005). Only
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sensitivity. Most were derived from
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The sensitivity evaluation typicall
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in exposure. The result of combinin
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highest priority for management act
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to information affected the assessm
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with and rely on in many resource d
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Pilot National Forest Reports Conte
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Assessment of Watershed Vulnerabili
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Gallatin National Forest Watershed
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Coconino National Forest Watershed
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Sawtooth National Forest Watershed
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Shasta Trinity National Forest Wate
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Umatilla National Forest Watershed
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Ouachita National Forest Watershed
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Chequamegon-‐Nicolet National F
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Chugach National Forest Watershed V
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