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Coconino National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Southwest Region (R3) and sixth HUC watersheds without many water resources have not been assessed for climate vulnerability and will not inform sixth HUC WCF prioritization or projects outside of the WCF. 2. Following the WVA process, watersheds without many water resources will have low value, even though climate change can significantly alter upland vegetation types. Thus, results are biased towards watersheds with many water resources. The process could be expanded to assess vulnerability of other resources to better assist management. 3. We need to effectively present the framework so that Forest staff understand the process and do not have to start from scratch. It seems that the 6-step process varied somewhat between pilot Forests. 4. Integration with the resource specialists was necessary to identify the resource values of concern, assess how potential hydrologic changes might affect the resources, and identify and weigh stressors and buffers. 5. Need to be able to effectively address the time, cost, and relevance of performing a WVA to the leadership team to make it useful to managers. PROJECT TEAM The following team members contributed to this assessment: Amina Sena, CNF, hydrologist Mike Childs, CNF, fisheries Janie Agyagus, CNF, wildlife Ralph Martinez, Plumas NF, GIS Ken Roby, Lassen NF (retired) REFERENCES Arizona Department of Water Resources. 2011. Arizona Water Atlas Volume 5: Central Highlands Planning Area. http://www.azwater.gov/AzDWR/StatewidePlanning/WaterAtlas/CentralHighlands/default.htm Dominguez, F. and J. Cañon and J. Valdes. 2009. IPCC-AR4 climate simulations for the Southwestern US: the importance of future ENSO projections. Climatic Change DOI: 10.1007/s10584-009-9672-5 Liang, X., D. P. Lettenmaier, E. F. Wood, and S. J. Burges. 1994. A Simple hydrologically Based Model of Land Surface Water and Energy Fluxes for GSMs, J. Geophys. Res., 99(D7), 14,415-14,428. Littell, J.S., M.M. Elsner, G.S. Mauger, E.R. Lutz, A.F. Hamlet, and E.P. Salathé. 2011. Hydrologic Change in the Northern U.S. Rockies and Pacific Northwest: Internally Consistent Projections of Future Climate for Resource Management. Regional Climate and Preliminary project report, USFS JVA 09-JV- 11015600-039. Prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 1994. National Climatic Data Center. Mean Total Precipitation - Annual vector digital data. Available on line at: Server=geodata.library.arizona.edu; Service=5151; Database=atlas01; User=NCDC; Version=dbo.DEFAULT 156 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
Coconino National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Southwest Region (R3) Rajagopal S., Gupta H. V., Troch P. A., Dominguez F., Castro C. L. 2010. Climate change impacts on the water balance of a semi arid catchment in central Arizona using statistically downscaled climate data. (in preparation). Staudenmaier, Mike Jr., Preston, Reginald and Sorenson, Paul. 2007. Climate of Flagstaff, Arizona. NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS WR-273. 76 p. U.S. Department of Agriculture. 1994. A Federal Guide for Pilot Watershed Analysis, Version 1.2. Portland, OR. 202 pp 157 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
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AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS Authors* M
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ASSESSSING THE VULNERABILITY OF WAT
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staff; the task group included repr
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Figure 2. Conceptual model for asse
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Figure 3. Density of springs and sm
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Using Historic Data One finding con
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NF (Region 8) relied on information
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level of uncertainty. Though there
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climate (Casola et al. 2005). Only
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sensitivity. Most were derived from
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The sensitivity evaluation typicall
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in exposure. The result of combinin
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highest priority for management act
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to information affected the assessm
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with and rely on in many resource d
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Pilot National Forest Reports Conte
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Assessment of Watershed Vulnerabili
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Gallatin National Forest Watershed
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Helena National Forest Watershed Vu
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Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunniso
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Shasta Trinity National Forest Wate
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Shasta Trinity National Forest Wate
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Umatilla National Forest Watershed
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Ouachita National Forest Watershed
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Chequamegon-‐Nicolet National F
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Chugach National Forest Watershed V
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