1 evaluación del impacto de la implementacion de un plan de partos ...

Anexo D. Resumen estadístico del ARIMA para el indicador nacimientosSection 1THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS ALLOWED IN A SERIES IS: 1000THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF SERIES ALLOWED IN A MODEL IS: 30THE SERIAL NUMBER IS: 90004THE PRODUCT NUMBER IS: 6PRODUCT: 3ABBREVIATED OUTPUT*MODEL STATISTICS AND EQUATION FOR THE CURRENT EQUATION (DETAILS FOLLOW).Estimation/Diagnostic Checking for Variable Y = Nacimientos: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X1 = I~S00103 2003/ 8 SEASP: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X2 = I~P00146 2007/ 3 PULSE: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X3 = I~S00110 2004/ 3 SEASP: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X4 = I~P00151 2007/ 8 PULSE: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X5 = I~P00140 2006/ 9 PULSE: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X6 = I~P00111 2004/ 4 PULSE: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X7 = I~P00076 2001/ 5 PULSE: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X8 = I~P00152 2007/ 9 PULSE: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X9 = I~S00081 2001/ 10 SEASP: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE 10 = I~P00145 2007/ 2 PULSE: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE 11 = I~P00123 2005/ 4 PULSEMODEL STATISTICS IN TERMS OF THE ORIGINAL DATANumber of Residuals (R) =n 154Number of Degrees of Freedom =n-m 141Residual Mean =Sum R / n -.234160E-10Sum of Squares =Sum R**2 568.231Variance var=SOS/(n) 3.68981Adjusted Variance =SOS/(n-m) 4.03001Standard Deviation =SQRT(Adj Var) 2.00749Standard Error of the Mean =Standard Dev/ .169061Mean / its Standard Error =Mean/SEM -.138506E-09Mean Absolute Deviation =Sum(ABS(R))/n 1.49996AIC Value ( Uses var ) =nln +2m 227.059SBC Value ( Uses var ) =nln +m*lnn 266.539BIC Value ( Uses var ) =see Wei p153 -483.657R Square = .566083Durbin-Watson Statistic =[A-A(T-1)]**2/A**2 2.00291D-W STATISTIC SUGGESTS NO SIGNIFICANT AUTOCORRELATION for lag1.Section 2THE ESTIMATED MODEL PARAMETERSMODEL COMPONENT LAG COEFF STANDARD P T# (BOP) ERROR VALUE VALUE1 CONSTANT 2.04 .262 .0000 7.792 Autoregressive-Factor # 1 1 .161 .811E-01 .0489 1.99INPUT SERIES X1 I~S00103 2003/ 8SEASP3 Omega (input) -Factor # 2 0 8.02 .967 .0000 8.29118