1 evaluación del impacto de la implementacion de un plan de partos ...

Anexo G. Resumen estadístico del ARIMA para el indicador promedio de lechepor vaca por dia.Section 1THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS ALLOWED IN A SERIES IS: 1000THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF SERIES ALLOWED IN A MODEL IS: 30THE SERIAL NUMBER IS: 90004THE PRODUCT NUMBER IS: 6PRODUCT: 3ABBREVIATED OUTPUT*MODEL STATISTICS AND EQUATION FOR THE CURRENT EQUATION (DETAILS FOLLOW).Estimation/Diagnostic Checking for Variable Y = promvacadiahat: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X1 = I~T00057 1999/ 9 TIME: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X2 = I~T00090 2002/ 6 TIME: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X3 = I~L00058 1999/ 10 LEVEL: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X4 = I~L00112 2004/ 4 LEVEL: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X5 = I~S00074 2001/ 2 SEASP: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X6 = I~S00075 2001/ 3 SEASP: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X7 = I~S00133 2006/ 1 SEASP: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X8 = I~S00134 2006/ 2 SEASP: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X9 = I~S00135 2006/ 3 SEASPMODEL STATISTICS IN TERMS OF THE ORIGINAL DATANumber of Residuals (R) =n 154Number of Degrees of Freedom =n-m 142Residual Mean =Sum R / n -.309880E-10Sum of Squares =Sum R**2 12144.7Variance var=SOS/(n) 78.8617Adjusted Variance =SOS/(n-m) 85.5261Standard Deviation =SQRT(Adj Var) 9.24803Standard Error of the Mean =Standard Dev/ .776078Mean / its Standard Error =Mean/SEM -.399290E-10Mean Absolute Deviation =Sum(ABS(R))/n 6.98967AIC Value ( Uses var ) =nln +2m 696.625SBC Value ( Uses var ) =nln +m*lnn 733.069BIC Value ( Uses var ) =see Wei p153 306.967R Square = .910029Durbin-Watson Statistic =[A-A(T-1)]**2/A**2 2.13046D-W STATISTIC SUGGESTS NO SIGNIFICANT AUTOCORRELATION for lag1.Section 2THE ESTIMATED MODEL PARAMETERSMODEL COMPONENT LAG COEFF STANDARD P T# (BOP) ERROR VALUE VALUE1 CONSTANT 51.8 5.13 .0000 10.112 Autoregressive-Factor # 1 1 .731 .720E-01 .0000 10.163 2 -.469 .755E-01 .0000 -6.21INPUT SERIES X1 I~T00057 1999/ 9TIME4 Omega (input) -Factor # 2 0 .653 .166 .0001 3.94147