1 evaluación del impacto de la implementacion de un plan de partos ...

Anexo M. Resumen estadístico del ARIMA para el indicador Vacas enproducciónSection 1THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS ALLOWED IN A SERIES IS: 1000THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF SERIES ALLOWED IN A MODEL IS: 30THE SERIAL NUMBER IS: 90004THE PRODUCT NUMBER IS: 6PRODUCT: 3ABBREVIATED OUTPUT*MODEL STATISTICS AND EQUATION FOR THE CURRENT EQUATION (DETAILS FOLLOW).Estimation/Diagnostic Checking for Variable Y = VacasenProd: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X1 = I~L00030 1997/ 6 LEVELMODEL STATISTICS IN TERMS OF THE ORIGINAL DATANumber of Residuals (R) =n 152Number of Degrees of Freedom =n-m 147Residual Mean =Sum R / n .145629E-11Sum of Squares =Sum R**2 925.926Variance var=SOS/(n) 6.09162Adjusted Variance =SOS/(n-m) 6.29882Standard Deviation =SQRT(Adj Var) 2.50974Standard Error of the Mean =Standard Dev/ .207000Mean / its Standard Error =Mean/SEM .703519E-11Mean Absolute Deviation =Sum(ABS(R))/n 2.01281AIC Value ( Uses var ) =nln +2m 284.651SBC Value ( Uses var ) =nln +m*lnn 299.770BIC Value ( Uses var ) =see Wei p153 -176.954R Square = .877299Durbin-Watson Statistic =[A-A(T-1)]**2/A**2 2.00940D-W STATISTIC SUGGESTS NO SIGNIFICANT AUTOCORRELATION for lag1.Section 2THE ESTIMATED MODEL PARAMETERSMODEL COMPONENT LAG COEFF STANDARD P T# (BOP) ERROR VALUE VALUE1 CONSTANT 1.49 .978 .1298 1.522 Autoregressive-Factor # 1 1 .982 .134E-01 .0000 73.193 Autoregressive-Factor # 2 2 -.184 .669E-01 .0067 -2.754 3 -.521 .669E-01 .0000 -7.79INPUT SERIES X1 I~L00030 1997/ 6LEVEL5 Omega (input) -Factor # 3 0 -13.5 2.22 .0000 -6.11Y(T) = 47.307+[X1(T)][(- 13.5355 )]183