1 evaluación del impacto de la implementacion de un plan de partos ...

150 2007/ 7 1.00000 .00000 2.0431 -2.04151 2007/ 8 1.00000 .00000 .40256E-01 -.403E-01152 2007/ 9 1.00000 8.0000 8.2498 -.250 -3.12153 2007/ 10 1.00000 3.0000 4.5501 -1.55 -51.67154 2007/ 11 1.00000 .00000 2.1775 -2.18155 2007/ 12 1.00000 1.0000 2.0431 -1.04 -104.31MODEL MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR = .37 RSQ= .57 NacimientosNAIVE MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR = .83 NacimientosAVERAGE MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR = .56 NacimientosAN ANALYSIS OF THE RESIDUALS FROM THE FINAL MODEL.LAG ACF T PACF TVALUE RATIO -1 0 +1 VALUE RATIO -1 0 +11 -.002 -.03 * -.002 -.03 *2 -.005 -.06 * -.005 -.06 *3 .054 .67 ** .054 .68 **4 .026 .33 * .027 .33 *5 .231 2.85 *** .232 2.89 ***6 .126 1.48 ** .134 1.66 **7 .175 2.03 *** .199 2.47 ***8 -.013 -.15 * -.017 -.21 *9 .028 .31 * .016 .20 *10 .104 1.17 ** .029 .36 *11 .114 1.28 ** .063 .78 **12 .096 1.06 ** .010 .12 *13 .168 1.84 *** .155 1.93 ***14 .091 .98 ** .079 .99 **15 -.138 -1.48 ** -.165 -2.06 ***16 .071 .75 ** -.020 -.25 *17 .126 1.32 ** .042 .52 *18 .080 .83 ** -.007 -.09 *19 .061 .63 ** -.015 -.19 *20 -.054 -.56 ** -.072 -.89 **21 .041 .42 * .023 .29 *22 -.030 -.31 * -.056 -.70 **23 .054 .55 ** -.039 -.48 *24 .119 1.22 ** .046 .57 *Section 4Model Forecasting for Time Series Variable Y = Nacimientos: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X1 = I~S00103 2003/ 8 SEASP: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X2 = I~P00146 2007/ 3 PULSE: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X3 = I~S00110 2004/ 3 SEASP: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X4 = I~P00151 2007/ 8 PULSE: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X5 = I~P00140 2006/ 9 PULSE: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X6 = I~P00111 2004/ 4 PULSE: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X7 = I~P00076 2001/ 5 PULSE: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X8 = I~P00152 2007/ 9 PULSE: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X9 = I~S00081 2001/ 10 SEASP: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE 10 = I~P00145 2007/ 2 PULSE: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE 11 = I~P00123 2005/ 4 PULSE122