1 evaluación del impacto de la implementacion de un plan de partos ...

Anexo I. Resumen estadístico del ARIMA para el indicador Intervalo partoconcepción cada 4 mesesSection 1THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS ALLOWED IN A SERIES IS: 1000THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF SERIES ALLOWED IN A MODEL IS: 30THE SERIAL NUMBER IS: 90004THE PRODUCT NUMBER IS: 6PRODUCT: 3ABBREVIATED OUTPUT*MODEL STATISTICS AND EQUATION FOR THE CURRENT EQUATION (DETAILS FOLLOW).Estimation/Diagnostic Checking for Variable Y = IntervPtConc4m: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X1 = I~P00039 2007/ 3 PULSEMODEL STATISTICS IN TERMS OF THE ORIGINAL DATANumber of Residuals (R) =n 39Number of Degrees of Freedom =n-m 37Residual Mean =Sum R / n .134347E-11Sum of Squares =Sum R**2 32107.1Variance var=SOS/(n) 823.258Adjusted Variance =SOS/(n-m) 867.758Standard Deviation =SQRT(Adj Var) 29.4577Standard Error of the Mean =Standard Dev/ 4.84282Mean / its Standard Error =Mean/SEM .277415E-12Mean Absolute Deviation =Sum(ABS(R))/n 22.2159AIC Value ( Uses var ) =nln +2m 265.818SBC Value ( Uses var ) =nln +m*lnn 269.145BIC Value ( Uses var ) =see Wei p153 92.5079R Square = .304662Durbin-Watson Statistic =[A-A(T-1)]**2/A**2 1.98590D-W STATISTIC SUGGESTS NO SIGNIFICANT AUTOCORRELATION for lag1.Section 2THE ESTIMATED MODEL PARAMETERSMODEL COMPONENT LAG COEFF STANDARD P T# (BOP) ERROR VALUE VALUE1 CONSTANT 120. 4.65 .0000 25.75INPUT SERIES X1 I~P00039 2007/ 3PULSE2 Omega (input) -Factor # 1 0 120. 29.1 .0002 4.13Y(T) = 119.84+[X1(T)][(+ 120.16 )]+ [A(T)]159