1 evaluación del impacto de la implementacion de un plan de partos ...

Anexo J. Resumen estadístico del ARIMA para el indicador Intervalo entrepartos IEP cada cuatro mesesSection 1THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS ALLOWED IN A SERIES IS: 1000THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF SERIES ALLOWED IN A MODEL IS: 30THE SERIAL NUMBER IS: 90004THE PRODUCT NUMBER IS: 6PRODUCT: 3ABBREVIATED OUTPUT*MODEL STATISTICS AND EQUATION FOR THE CURRENT EQUATION (DETAILS FOLLOW).Estimation/Diagnostic Checking for Variable Y = PromIEP4m: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X1 = I~P00013 1999/ 1 PULSE: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X2 = I~P00036 2006/ 3 PULSE: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X3 = I~P00025 2003/ 1 PULSEMODEL STATISTICS IN TERMS OF THE ORIGINAL DATANumber of Residuals (R) =n 39Number of Degrees of Freedom =n-m 35Residual Mean =Sum R / n .669987E-11Sum of Squares =Sum R**2 20626.3Variance var=SOS/(n) 528.880Adjusted Variance =SOS/(n-m) 589.323Standard Deviation =SQRT(Adj Var) 24.2760Standard Error of the Mean =Standard Dev/ 4.10339Mean / its Standard Error =Mean/SEM .163277E-11Mean Absolute Deviation =Sum(ABS(R))/n 18.0484AIC Value ( Uses var ) =nln +2m 252.560SBC Value ( Uses var ) =nln +m*lnn 259.214BIC Value ( Uses var ) =see Wei p153 125.735R Square = .572557Durbin-Watson Statistic =[A-A(T-1)]**2/A**2 2.07784D-W STATISTIC SUGGESTS NO SIGNIFICANT AUTOCORRELATION for lag1.Section 2THE ESTIMATED MODEL PARAMETERSMODEL COMPONENT LAG COEFF STANDARD P T# (BOP) ERROR VALUE VALUE1 CONSTANT 398. 3.83 .0000 103.93INPUT SERIES X1 I~P00013 1999/ 1 PULSE2 Omega (input) -Factor # 1 0 125. 23.3 .0000 5.35INPUT SERIES X2 I~P00036 2006/ 3 PULSE3 Omega (input) -Factor # 2 0 95.6 23.3 .0002 4.10INPUT SERIES X3 I~P00025 2003/ 1 PULSE4 Omega (input) -Factor # 3 0 71.6 23.3 .0041 3.07Y(T) = 398.36+[X1(T)][(+ 124.64 )]+[X2(T)][(+ 95.6389 )]+[X3(T)][(+ 71.6389 )]163