1 evaluación del impacto de la implementacion de un plan de partos ...

Anexo H. Resumen estadístico del ARIMA para el indicador Intervalo PartoPrimer servicio cada 4 mesesSection 1THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS ALLOWED IN A SERIES IS: 1000THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF SERIES ALLOWED IN A MODEL IS: 30THE SERIAL NUMBER IS: 90004THE PRODUCT NUMBER IS: 6PRODUCT: 3ABBREVIATED OUTPUT*MODEL STATISTICS AND EQUATION FOR THE CURRENT EQUATION (DETAILS FOLLOW).Estimation/Diagnostic Checking for Variable Y = IntPt1Serv4m: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X1 = I~P00011 1998/ 2 PULSEMODEL STATISTICS IN TERMS OF THE ORIGINAL DATANumber of Residuals (R) =n 39Number of Degrees of Freedom =n-m 37Residual Mean =Sum R / n .174903E-13Sum of Squares =Sum R**2 30470.8Variance var=SOS/(n) 781.304Adjusted Variance =SOS/(n-m) 823.536Standard Deviation =SQRT(Adj Var) 28.6973Standard Error of the Mean =Standard Dev/ 4.71781Mean / its Standard Error =Mean/SEM .370729E-14Mean Absolute Deviation =Sum(ABS(R))/n 21.3900AIC Value ( Uses var ) =nln +2m 263.778SBC Value ( Uses var ) =nln +m*lnn 267.105BIC Value ( Uses var ) =see Wei p153 70.6530R Square = .215305Durbin-Watson Statistic =[A-A(T-1)]**2/A**2 1.66268D-W STATISTIC SUGGESTS NO SIGNIFICANT AUTOCORRELATION for lag1.Section 2THE ESTIMATED MODEL PARAMETERSMODEL COMPONENT LAG COEFF STANDARD P T# (BOP) ERROR VALUE VALUE1 CONSTANT 96.4 4.53 .0000 21.25INPUT SERIES X1 I~P00011 1998/ 2PULSE2 Omega (input) -Factor # 1 0 92.6 28.3 .0023 3.27Y(T) = 96.368+[X1(T)][(+ 92.6316 )]+ [A(T)]Section 3155